UFC Mexico City Predictions:
Mexico City hosts this week’s UFC fight slate, a card populated by a highly international cast of athletes converging to navigate both the extreme altitude and opponents who, in many cases, live and train in the vicinity of Mexico City.
Weekly, we discuss the advantages age, location, and physical attributes provide each fighter and how they stack up against their opponents. In this week’s case, there is no more favorable advantage than to be able to live, train and dwell in or close to Mexico City, especially if one is competing against someone who must travel into Mexico City from outside such a drastic altitude.
Athletes who can afford a couple of weeks of camp in Mexico City can acclimate appropriately and hold an advantage, or at least hold par, against their opponents. However, for most, the cost of travel, team expenses, hotels, and training prohibits many from arriving early to acclimate to the altitude.
This week, my handicapping revolves around trying to uncover which athletes outside the local Mexican fighters are able to arrive in Mexico City early, acclimate, and then perform at their best come fight night.
Fighters arriving within 10 days’ time to try to acclimate to the altitude are only fooling themselves, for it is widely understood that acclimatization to the Mexico City altitude takes a minimum of 10 to 12 days.
Altitude is the big edge this week.
Dogs went 10-4 again last week, pushing favorites to a 2026 total of 36-12 or 75%.
Brandon Moreno -225 vs. Lone’er Kavanagh +185
Flyweight (125 pounds) main event
Kavanagh steps in on short notice as Moreno’s originally scheduled opponent, Asu Almabaev, had to drop off the card due to injury.
Kavanagh, an Englishman, is 2-1 in the UFC after being stopped by Charles Johnson in his last bout. He will have his hands full, traveling to Mexico City to face a former Mexican champion from halfway across the globe, on short notice, which surely puts him at a disadvantageous position.
Kavanagh will have a six-year youth advantage coming into this bout, but he will be giving away height, reach, and a vast amount of world-class fighting experience to Moreno.
Besides testing his mettle against a grizzled UFC veteran, Kavanagh will learn quickly how important it is to compete against worthy UFC opponents, which he has not yet done in his youthful career.
Taking this fight on short notice and having to travel the globe to compete in Mexico City will surely provide Kavanagh some future considerations, as the UFC too understands that this is one difficult spot for the Englishman, especially with the short-notice nature of the matchup.
Once this fight begins, look for Kavanagh to be forceful with forward striking pressure, but he’ll not be able to provide Moreno with anything that the former champion has not seen yet.
Kavanagh’s forte is striking, and he’ll strike with Moreno from moment one in that altitude. I project him to have about two and a half rounds of successful, frenetic pace before he begins to slow. After the start of round three, he may simply become a sparring partner to the former champion fighting in front of his countrymen.
Kavanagh may surprise Moreno with his youthful quickness, speed, and power. The Kavanagh camp will arrive in Mexico City not to try to duel Moreno in decision form, but rather to try to jump him early and attempt to steal this fight with a flash knock-out.
That’s the only path I see for Kavanagh.
Moreno, though only 32, has well more fight years under his belt than that. The wear on him from previous wars waged in the division are the only threats to his being sharp, fast, powerful, and conditioned in this battle.
Moreno on point is beguiling, crafty, intelligent, and versed with a wide array of mixed martial arts weaponry. That said, it’s believed that his best flyweight days may be behind him, despite the fact that it may not be apparent in this week’s bout.
Moreno will look to force Kavanagh to move early in this fight. Kavanagh must use his legs to evade the forward pressure and volume striking that Moreno dishes out. The more Moreno forces Kavanagh to expend energy in the early rounds, the more likely it is for Moreno to get the kid out of there before the end of the scheduled five rounds.
This line opened Moreno -175, which appeared a little light. Moreno now stands -245, a number that depicts his many advantages more accurately in my judgment.
Total in this fight: I see some 3.5 totals and some 4.5 totals. Tiny men competing in a large cage usually indicates an easy Over, but with the altitude variance here (Moreno training in it for weeks and Kavanagh not), the chance for this fight to realize an under is well more likely.
David Martinez -250 vs. Marlon Vera +220
Bantamweight (135 pounds) co-main event
Ecuadoran Marlon ‘Chito’ Vera arrives to Mexico City prepared for war.
Vera, the number eight-ranked bantamweight, will travel to Mexico City to face a violent David Martinez, currently ranked number nine.
A decorated black belt in BJJ, Vera, who is a notoriously slow starter, has fought the elite of the division, and while he is relatively powerless, he does possess great cardio, toughness, and, in lieu of power, Vera unleashes strikes, kicks, elbows, and knees in flurries and from every angle.
Vera earned victory in 2023 against Brazilian Pedro Munhoz but has dropped all three fights since then against elite talent in Sean O’Malley, Deiveson Figueiredo and Aiemann Zahabi, who are all top-10 athletes in the division.
David Martinez is your typical Mexican warrior. He is forward pressing, and he brings world-class power striking, an iron will, and a granite jaw.
Martinez is a resident of Mexico City, so the prototypical Mexican fighter approaches this fight with the elevation as his norm. He’s also highly intelligent, having studied medicine at The National Autonomous University of Mexico, so forcing Vera into frenetic exchanges early only sets the table for his success.
Martinez’s tenure in the UFC is but two fights deep, so while he’ll be the more elevation acclimated athlete and the more powerful athlete, he will be giving away a dearth of experience to Vera, who at 33 years old will be six years the older man in this fight.
Once this fight begins, I expect Martinez to go on the attack immediately. Vera will attempt to use footwork and cage maneuvers to maintain striking/kicking distance in order to try to pepper Martinez with a heavy volume of strikes/kicks as he forces his way into the pocket to engage.
Martinez, a Mexican fighter fighting out of Mexico City, holds great advantage in this fight. I believe his advantage in this matchup is greater than his current price of -260.
UFC Mexico City Best Bet: David Martinez -260 (Circa)
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -425
This fight slate has three bouts where the favorite is lines -225 or lower; the rest of the matchups are lined with chalk being ridiculously high, mostly because Mexican athletes are competing with combatants that are traveling in from other parts of the globe.
This is an easy card to go light on.
Friday the ‘Bout Business podcast will drop across all podcast platforms as well; it is always available at GambLou.com. Obtain all my final releases there once weigh-ins have been completed. Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights! ¡Gracias por leer y disfrutar de las peleas!
