UFC Nashville Predictions – Lewis vs. Teixeira:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Nashville best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last card: 2-5 -3.1 Units (-39.74% ROI)
Since 2020: 725-697 (+186.43 Units, 10.69% ROI)
PICK’EM HISTORY
Last Week: 6-5 (54.55%)
Article History: 419-268-1 (60.99%)
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Derrick Lewis (+240) vs. Tallison Teixeira (-298)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+140) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-180)
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis is one of the most accomplished knockout artists in UFC history and is likely to find his name in the UFC Hall of Fame one day. Not because of hardware, but because of his sheer number of exciting fights, both in victory and defeat. He is now 40 years old, but his punching power remains consistent throughout the entirety of his fights. He is not a good grappler, he doesn’t have the best footwork, his activity level is low, and his head strike defense is wanting. But his power cancels those deficiencies out most of the time, as evidenced by his 19-10 UFC record. He hasn’t fought in a year, but that fight resulted in a third-round knockout victory. He is 4-5 since 2021, but his last five victories have come versus opponents on 2+ UFC fight win streaks. He is no stranger to stopping momentum and has never lost to an opponent with fewer than two trips to the UFC octagon. The last time he faced an opponent with so little UFC experience was 2014. But despite having 15 UFC knockouts, he has been KO’d seven times in the organization. Most of his losses come to opponents who are a grappling threat. Additionally, there have been a few aggressive strikers who have managed to win through getting Lewis on the back foot, namely Sergei Pavlovich and Tai Tuivasa.
Tallison Teixeira is the next young heavyweight with high potential, getting a major test early in his career. Teixeira is 8-0 as a professional mixed martial artist with a 100% finish rate (7 KO, 1 Sub). The 25-year-old has fought in the UFC once, a first-round KO of Justin Tafa. He also won via KO in the first round in his Contender Series fight. He has never seen a second round and has never come close to seeing an opponent of consequence. He has an impressive frame, standing 6’7” with an 83” reach. If you look at his results in a vacuum, he looks like the greatest heavyweight to ever do it, and maybe he is, but after watching thousands of MMA fights, I am cynical. I think he is up for the biggest test of his life, but is now twice as big of a favorite as he was against Justin Tafa.
Derrick Lewis coming out disengaged and getting put out early is definitely in the range of outcomes. But so is Lewis knocking out a young upstart who is being put under too bright a spotlight too soon. The organization is fresh for fresh blood in the heavyweight division. Heavyweights sell pay-per-views, and the organization doesn’t waste any time testing prospects early in their careers. We saw a similar situation at a fight night card in March of 2024. Undefeated and 1-0 in the UFC, Shamil Gaziev was a favorite against veteran Jairzinho Rozenustruik. The underdog won that fight via retirement after the fourth round (TKO). Obviously, these fights feature different fighters, but I see the narrative as similar. I am going to take a shot with Derrick Lewis because he has been here before, and he will likely be here again.
FIGHT WINNER: Derrick Lewis
UFC NASHVILLE BEST BET: Derrick Lewis (+250, BetOnline) vs. Teixeira, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.5 Units
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Stephen Thompson (+350) vs. Gabriel Bonfim (-455)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+105) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-135)
Welterweight
Stephen Thompson is a fan favorite and two-time welterweight title challenger. He made his name through karate-style knockouts that looked like they were ripped straight from 80s action movies. But in 2025, those highlights are far in the rearview mirror. His last knockout came in 2022 when Kevin Holland was forced to retire after the fourth round. His last true highlight finish was all the way back in 2016, and he is on a two-fight losing streak via finish. He is 1-4 in his last five overall and 4-7 since 2017. He doesn’t move as well as he used to, and his takedown defense is still a real problem. He moves unconventionally with a wide karate stance, but at this point, the tape is out there, and well-prepared opponents find a way to get the fight to the ground. Each of his last five opponents has landed takedowns.
Gabriel Bonfim is a high-potential prospect who is edging his way towards contender status. He is 4-1 in the UFC, and has looked great outside of a fight where he gassed himself out versus veteran Nicolas Dalby. The 27-year-old is 14-1 overall with three wins via KO and 13 via submission. When he came into the organization, his striking was underdeveloped, but in his last few fights, he has shown great improvement in his boxing. He is not a striker of Stephen Thompson’s caliber, but a crisp jab has gone a long way to setting up takedowns. Thompson’s takedown defense rate is 63% while Bongfim lands 3.68 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. If Bonfim controls his energy output and fights a smart fight, he will win and add another tally to Thompson’s loss column.
FIGHT WINNER: Gabriel Bonfim
UFC NASHVILLE BEST BET: Gabriel Bonfim to win via submission vs. Thompson (+140, Bovada), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.4
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Calvin Kattar (+102) vs. Steve Garcia (-122)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)
Featherweight
An inevitable knockout against an unmovable chin will yield quite an exciting fight between two UFC veterans who have given their flesh and blood to the sport. The inevitable knockout is Steve Garcia, who has finished his last five opponents in devastating fashion. He is 6-2 in the organization with a 100% finish rate in victory. Calvin Kattar’s chin is legendary. He has made it to the final bell in six of his seven UFC losses, with the one stoppage coming due to a devastating knee injury. Overall, Kattar has lost four fights in a row and five of his last six. He still has unimpeachable cardio, toughness, and boxing. He also has seen tougher competition than Garcia. He is also aging quickly, 37 years old, and more damaged than his true age. This fight is going to be a high-level display of striking, Garcia will brawl, and potentially attempt takedowns. Kattar will do everything he can to stay on his feet and display technical striking. To me, this one is too close to call, and I do not see an edge either way.
FIGHT WINNER: Steve Garcia
UFC NASHVILLE BEST BET: Pass
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Nate Landwehr (+210) vs. Morgan Charriere (-258)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+130)
Featherweight
As a Tennessean, Nate Landwehr will feel all the love and adoration of the Nashville crowd at Bridgestone Arena. Landwehr is a popular fighter no matter where he enters the cage because he has a penchant for action and excitement in victory or defeat. The 37-year-old is 5-4 in the UFC and has won his last two fights via finish. His last loss was tough, but I give more of that credit to Doo Ho Choi peaking than Landwehr’s skills diminishing. He’s a good guy to have on the UFC roster, but he’ll never be highly ranked because he’s more of a jack of all trades than a master of one.
Morgan Charriere’s popularity far exceeds his abilities, at least in my opinion. He has a massive European fanbase because he had some excellent results in the UK’s Cage Warriors promotion. That said, his regional success has not translated to the UFC as he is just 2-2 despite being a favorite in all of his fights. He is an aggressive, dangerous finisher, and he is physically imposing with a cut-up 5’8” frame. He is 20-11-1 as a professional with a 75% finish rate. Both of his UFC wins have come via knockout, and both of his UFC losses have gone the distance.
Purely on strength of schedule, Nate Landwehr is in a different league than Morgan Charriere. Age and physical abilities go to Charriere. Fight IQ and home crowd advantage go to Landwehr in a major way.
FIGHT WINNER: Nate Landwehr
UFC NASHVILLE BEST BET: Nate Landwehr (+220, BetOnline) vs Charriere, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.2
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Vitor Petrino (-700) vs Austen Lane (+500)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+124) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-160)
Heavyweight
Vitor Petrino is making his heavyweight debut in the UFC. He looked like he could be a factor in the light heavyweight division after putting together an undefeated record on the back of his power punches and elite wrestling. However, his last two fights showed he was not the right style fighter to make a dent in the division. He lost via submission to the veteran Anthony Smith, then was knocked out by the veteran Dustin Jacoby in December. He is 6’2” and on Friday weighed in at 249 pounds. He is not going to be the biggest heavyweight, but we have also seen smaller guys find success. I think his wrestling will still be at the forefront of his gameplan. However, if he doesn’t get the finish, fatigue could be a factor. Moving around large men weighs on the gas tank.
Austen Lane seems like a good guy who has lived an interesting life. Playing in the NFL and then making a career in the UFC is something to be proud of. But at this point, he does not belong in MMA’s top organization. He has suffered a lot of head trauma and has a glass chin. He is 1-3 in the UFC, with all three losses coming via knockout. His win came against a kickboxer, where he was able to employ wrestling to get his hand raised. I do not think that will be an easy feat versus Petrino. Weighing in at 249 pounds is concerning because I’d like to have seen him use his 6’6” frame to wear on his opponent.
FIGHT WINNER: Vitor Petrino
UFC NASHVILLE BEST BET: Pass
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Junior Tafa (-180) vs. Tuco Tokkos (+150)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-120)
Light Heavyweight
Junior Tafa is another fighter trying out a new weight class on this card. After putting together a 6-3 record as an undersized heavyweight, Tafa dedicated himself to the weight cut and came in at 206 pounds on Friday. Like his brother Justin, Tafa has legitimate knockout power, and both of his UFC wins have come via KO. His weakness is facing grapplers, but that may be easier now that he will not be giving up 20 pounds to his opponent. Tuco Tokkos is an N.F.L. UFC fighter (Not For Long). He is 0-2 in the UFC, lost a fight in Road to UFC, and also went 0-2 in Bellator back in the day. His wins have all come against inexperienced and below-average fighters. Tokkos has a sub 50% striking defense rate, which is a scary proposition versus Tafa.
FIGHT WINNER: Junior Tafa
UFC NASVHVILLE BEST BET: Junior Tafa to win via KO (-110, Bovada) vs Tokkos, Risk 1.1 Units 1
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Chris Curtis (-325) vs. Max Griffin (+260)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-280) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+210)
Welterweight
Chris Curtis is another fighter on this card moving to a different weight class, although he does have some familiarity with fighting at 170 pounds. Prior to joining the UFC, he was on a five-fight win streak at welterweight, but a late notice opportunity at middleweight got him into the UFC. He won his UFC debut via KO and followed that performance up with three more victories. That said, he has been in some weird fights as of late with injuries, last-second dramatics, and all sorts of foul interruptions. I am a believer in his skill. He has great power and great standup. Max Griffin is another UFC veteran who has seen the highest highs and lowest lows this organization has to offer. The 39-year-old has gone 8-9 in the UFC over the past nine years and has traded wins and losses in his last six fights. He is coming off a submission loss to Michael Chiesa, and lucky for Griffin, this fight does not project to feature any grappling. He is virtually impossible to knock out on the feet, which is why this fight is trending towards going the distance.
FIGHT WINNER: Chris Curtis
UFC NASHVILLE BEST BET: Chris Curtis to Win via Decision (-130) vs Griffin, Risk 1.3 Units to Win 1
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Jake Matthews (+130) vs. Chidi Njokuani (-155)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-210) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+160)
Welterweight
Jake Matthews and Chidi Njokuani are some pretty big names to be buried on the undercard of a Fight Night event. That being said, getting fans in the stands is part of the reason for putting this show on the road. Matthews and Njokuani should deliver in that regard. Matthews is an 11-year UFC veteran but just 30 years old. Chidi Njokuani is on a three-fight win streak, including a knockout finish in his last bout in March. Njokuani wants to win with kickboxing, Jake Matthews wants to win with grappling, and avoid the big power coming back his way. Njokuani is used to fighters trying to take him down and has a 75% takedown defense rate in the UFC.
FIGHT WINNER: Chidi Njokuani
UFC NASHVILLE BEST BET: Pass
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Lauren Murphy (+490) vs. Eduarda Moura (-675)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-315) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+230)
Women’s Flyweight
Lauren Murphy fought for the flyweight championship against Valentina Shevchenko in September of 2021. She lost that fight and has gone 1-1 since. She has been inactive for 2.5 years and is 41 years old. She is from a different generation of this division and is suiting up to try and show she still has gas in the tank. Statistically, she is an active striker, but her defense rate is less than ideal, and her ground game is far from impressive. Eduarda Moura is 31 years old, 11-1 as a pro, and 2-1 in the UFC. Her first two fights in the organization came in the strawweight division, where she missed weight twice. She moved up to flyweight and dominated Veronica Hardy in a decision victory. Her one loss in the UFC came via split decision to Denise Gomes, despite the fact she landed five takedowns. On average, she lands 4.37 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. I expect her to use this strategy to great effect and think there is potential for a submission victory.
FIGHT WINNER: Eduarda Moura
UFC NASHVILLE BEST BET: Pass
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Kennedy Nzechukwu (-205) vs. Valter Walker (+170)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-130)
Heavyweight
Kennedy Nzechukwu made the jump from light heavyweight to heavyweight two fights ago and has two first-round finishes to his name. He is 6’5” with an 83” reach and is one of the leaner heavyweights in the division at 238 pounds. But his wins at heavyweight are deserving of asterisks. Chris Barnett got injured before the fight even started, and Lukasz Brzeski was more of a warm body on the roster than a prospect. This will be a big test because Valter Walker is big, tough, and can grapple. Walker is 6’6” and coming in at 344 pounds, but will have a five-inch reach disadvantage. He is not as active a striker as Nzechukwu and has a far inferior striking defense rate. This will all come down to him getting the fight to the ground, which no heavyweight has been able to do yet. I give Walker a chance because if the fight does get to the ground, Nzechukwu is going to be in uncharted territory.
FIGHT WINNER: Valter Walker
UFC NASHVILLE BEST BET: Pass
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Mike Davis (-1100) vs. Mitch Ramirez (+700)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+140) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-180)
Lightweight
Mike Davis is a fighter whose momentum was put in check versus Fares Ziam in Riyadh in February. Prior to that, he was on a four-fight win streak, and many believed he had the potential to make a dent in the division. That is still possible; he has knockout power, good wrestling, and great strength. He needs to take advantage of this opportunity versus a more inexperienced fighter. Mitch Ramirez got his UFC all up as a late replacement opponent for Thiago Moises. He was defeated via leg kick KO. He also was knocked out in Contender Series up a weight class versus Carlos Prates. He has an impressive record on the regional scene; however, he has not fought any opponents of consequence.
FIGHT WINNER: Mike Davis
UFC NASHVILLE BEST BET: Mike Davis to Win inside the distance (-200) vs Ramirez, Risk 2 Units to Win 1
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Fatima Kline (-1350) vs. Melissa Martinez (+800)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-125) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-105)
Women’s Strawweight
Fatima Kline is an accomplished grappler who recently dedicated herself to MMA full time. She lost her UFC debut to Jasmine Jasudavicius, which is a result that has aged well. She followed that up with a TKO victory over Victoria Dudakova. She has landed all three of the takedowns she has attempted in the UFC and has used that wrestling ability to make her opponents gun-shy on the feet. Melissa Martinez is 1-1 in the UFC. She lost her debut to Elise Reed as a favorite but followed that up with a decision win versus Alice Ardelean. Martinez’s takedown defense rate is going to be in question here. This number is very hard to attack, and there is no certainty that there will be a finish in this fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Fatima Kline
UFC NASHVILLE BEST BET: Pass
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UFC NASHVILLE BEST BETS RECAP
- Derrick Lewis (+250, BetOnline) vs Teixeira, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.5 Units
- Gabriel Bonfim to win via submission vs Thompson (+140, Bovada), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.4
- Nate Landwehr (+220, BetOnline) vs Charriere, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.2
- Junior Tafa to win via KO (-110, Bovada) vs Tokkos, Risk 1.1 Units 1
- Chris Curtis to Win via Decision (-130) vs Griffin, Risk 1.3 Units to Win 1
- Mike Davis to Win inside the distance (-200) vs Ramirez, Risk 2 Units to Win 1
