UFC Paris Predictions – Imavov vs. Borralho:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Paris best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 3-4, -0.1 Units (-1.38% ROI)
Since 2020: 738-719 (+180.35 Units, 10.35% ROI)
PICK’EM HISTORY
Last Week: 9-3 (75%)
Article History: 471-302-1 (60.93%)
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Nassourdine Imavov (+110) vs Caio Borralho (-130)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-210) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+160)
Middleweight
Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho are on the short list of middleweight title contenders. The winner of this fight has a real shot at fighting for the belt in the next six months. Both fighters are on fire, with Borralho holding a 7-0 UFC record and Imavov unbeaten in his last five with knockouts over Israel Adesanya and Jared Cannonier.
Imavov is 16-4 (1 NC) in his MMA career, and 8-2 (1 NC) in the UFC. He lost a majority decision to Phil Hawes in his sophomore fight and later lost a decision to Sean Strickland, who was on his way to wearing the middleweight belt. But since those losses, he has looked virtually flawless versus Roman Dolidze, Jared Cannonier, Brendan Allen, and Israel Adesanya. He is a well-rounded fighter with a solid wrestling base. His power has come online in his last several fights, making him a tough out for any opponent. He has also fought very tough competition and has ducked no one on his way to this main event billing. He lands 4.45 significant strikes per minute with a 55% accuracy rate while avoiding nearly 60% of what his opponents throw his way. He lands just under one takedown per 15 minutes in the cage and has a 78% takedown defense rate. Additionally, he attempts 1.1 submissions per 15 minutes fighting, proving that he is not just a position grappler.
Caio Borralho has perhaps been a bit more selective in picking his opponents in his UFC career, but it has paid off. He is unbeaten in the organization and 17-1 (1 NC) as a professional. He is not quite as explosive or aggressive as Imavov, but he is one of the most disciplined fighters in the division. He doesn’t win because he overwhelms his opponents; he wins because he is elite defensively and prevents opponents from implementing their game plans. He doesn’t overextend himself headhunting. Instead, he uses a controlled striking game to land 3.61 significant strikes per minute at a 60% rate. He only gets hit 2.34 times per minute while avoiding an impressive 62% of what his opponent throws. He is also good at mixing in the wrestling, landing 1.56 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. However, he is not one to attempt many takedowns.
Imavov is 2 inches taller than Borralho at 6’3” but both fighters have a 75” reach. Imavov is the more aggressive and explosive fighter. He will be fighting in front of a friendly Parisian crowd. I give a slight edge in grappling to Imavov and expect him to land more strikes. I am going with the underdog here because I have him as the favorite in a “neutral site,” and this fight will feature a crowd that cheers for every jab landed, which could influence the judges. Decision is the most likely outcome, but we have seen crazier things happen at the Accor Arena.
FIGHT WINNER: Nassourdine Imavov
UFC PARIS BEST BET: Nassourdine Imavov (+110), vs Borralho, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
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Benoit Saint-Denis (+124) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (-148)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+135)
Lightweight
This feels like a “passing of the torch” fight with Benoit Saint-Denis being past his prime and Mauricio Ruffy being one of the more hyped up prospects in the division. But in MMA, things rarely go according to plan. Saint-Denis’s career is a perfect example of this phenomenon. He is 6-3 in the division, but two of his losses have come as a significant betting favorite. He is 1-1 in the UFC as a betting underdog. Saint-Denis was at one point on the fast track to UFC greatness because of the reckless abandon with which he fights. When facing fighters who lack true knockout power, he looks great. He also is not afraid to shoot a takedown and immediately transition to submission attempts. All 14 of his career victories have come via finish, 10 of which have been subs. But he has taken a lot of damage over the years, and I worry about his chin. If he doesn’t land takedowns, he will be at a distinct disadvantage on the feet. His striking defense rate is an abhorrent 41%.
Mauricio Ruffy has quickly cultivated a fan base because he gives the fans what they want: quick knockouts. He is 3-0 in the UFC with two first-round knockouts. His fight that went to a decision was short notice and up 10 pounds at 165-pound catchweight. And he still put on a show in that contest by landing 53 significant head strikes. His strength of schedule is not close to as good as what BSD has put together, but his underlying metrics give real cause for optimism for his career trajectory. A 61% significant strike defense rate and 100% takedown defense rate. He is an excellent counterpuncher, and if he chooses the right spot, he can knock BSD out. The real question is if he can avoid the takedown. I am optimistic and I like the favorite to silence the French crowd.
FIGHT WINNER: Mauricio Ruffy
UFC PARIS BEST BET: Mauricio Ruffy (-148) vs Saint-Denis, Risk 1.48 Units to Win 1
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Modestas Bukauskas (-325) vs. Paul Craig (+260)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+120)
Light Heavyweight
Modestas Bukauskas has a power problem. He just doesn’t have it. He is a technical fighter and has a solid fight IQ, but he does not have the ability to strike fear in the hearts of most light heavyweights with his hands. Since returning to the UFC in 2023, he is 5-1, so he has found a way to work around his physical limitations. Footwork and space control are how he wins, which could lead to an interesting chess match versus Paul Craig, or it could lead to a snoozer. His striking metrics are below average, and his grappling game mostly revolves around takedown defense.
Paul Craig is, has been, and always will be a one-trick BJJ pony. He wants to take opponents down, he wants to find submissions, and he wants to celebrate the victory with a cold beer with his mates. But the 37-year-old has had little reason to toast the boys as of late. His last fight was a no contest after an illegal strike, and he lost his three previous bouts. He has just one win since July of 2022. He struggles when fighting elite strikers, which bodes well for him in this matchup versus Bukauskas. This fight is tough to get excited about. Craig could charge in and eat a shot that ends the fight. He could also play it too patient like he did versus Bo Nickal and lose an excruciatingly boring decision.
FIGHT WINNER: Modestas Bukauskas
UFC PARIS BEST BET: Pass
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Bolaji Oki (+120) vs. Mason Jones (-142)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+130)
Lightweight
Bolaji Oki is 2-1 in the UFC while having been a big favorite in all three bouts. He seemingly lacks power at the UFC level, which is tough considering he is in a division of heavy hitters. What he lacks in power he makes up for with volume, landing 7.05 significant strikes per minute while avoiding 62% of what his opponents throw. He is also very tough to take down while landing at least one takedown in two out of three of his UFC bouts. The takedown defense will be tested in this fight more than ever before in this matchup.
Mason Jones has real holes in his striking game. He is not particularly accurate, which is okay if you land the type of volume Oki does, but he doesn’t. He also has a subpar defense rate. However, his game is not standing; he lands 4.24 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. On the regional scene in Cage Warriors, his grappling has led to multiple ground and pound victories, but both of his UFC victories have come via decision. I think that this will be a chess match and could actually turn out pretty boring because Oki’s defensive instincts should keep him standing. I do not think there is much finish equity in this fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Bolaji Oki
UFC PARIS BEST BET: Pass
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Axel Sola (-130) vs. Rhys McKee (+110)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-195) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+150)
Welterweight
Axel Sola is 10-0-1 as a professional fighter and is making his UFC debut without having to come up through the Contender Series ranks. He is a champion in the French promotion Ares FC and adds some local celebrity to this fight card. His last five victories have come via knockout. He will be facing an opponent in Rhys McKee who is no stranger to getting hit. Fighting on the regional stage is much different than fighting in front of a packed arena versus a UFC veteran who has seen some truly hard hitters.
Rhys McKee is 1-4 in the UFC, but he has not had an easy schedule. He debuted versus Khamzat Chimaev, which is a bit insane. He lost his follow-up fight and then went back to the regional scene. Since returning to the UFC, he lost a competitive decision to Ange Loosa and a split decision to Chidi Njokuani before winning via KO in April versus Daniel Frunza as a +120 underdog. He has actually been on an upward trajectory in his performances despite not getting his hand raised often. I think his durability could be a factor in this fight. His improvising fight IQ will be too much for the French upstart.
FIGHT WINNER: Rhys McKee
UFC PARIS BEST BET: Pass
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William Gomis (-265) vs. Robert Ruchala (+215)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-298) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+220)
Featherweight
William Gomis is very good at putting his opponents in quicksand and not letting them implement their game plan. He is not the most exciting fighter, with three of his five UFC fights going to split decisions. His win versus Joanderson Brito was extremely impressive because he was able to frustrate the physically imposing powerhouse. And his split-decision loss in March to Hyder Amil had much more to do with Amil being a freak with cardio than Gomis making any major mistakes. Like most fighters with a winning record, his defense stands out much more than his offensive numbers. He isn’t flashy, but he is effective.
Robert Ruchala is making his UFC debut with an 11-1 professional record. He was a champion in Poland’s KSW promotion and has won his last three fights via knockout. I am not confident his aggressive striking style will work against Gomis. Volume is the key to beating Gomis, and in Paris, I do not think Ruchala will succeed in wading through the mud his opponent will trap him in.
FIGHT WINNER: William Gomis
UFC PARIS BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below
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Oumar Sy (-575) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+425)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-125) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-105)
Light Heavyweight
Oumar Sy was on the fast track to UFC stardom before his last fight. He was 11-0 with eight wins inside the distance. But in June, he fought Alonzo Menifield as a -715 favorite and lost via extremely routine decision. The veteran earned his respect early with powerful strikes, and Sy looked like a deer in the headlights the majority of the fight. He wants to get fights to the ground, but Menifield repelled four of his five takedown attempts. Sy landed more strikes on paper, but they did not do enough damage to assuage the judges. This is a good spot for the Frenchman to get back on track.
Brendson Ribeiro is 2-3 in the UFC, with wins coming against fighters with a combined 0-5 UFC record. He has a good grappling game, but I think Sy’s is better. He also struggles against strikers with power, and Sy has more than he showed in his last bout.
FIGHT WINNER: Oumar Sy
UFC PARIS BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below
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Marcin Tybura (-118) vs. Ante Delija (-102)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+105) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-135)
Heavyweight
At this point, Marcin Tybura is nearing UFC legend status. Not because he has won a belt, but because he has lasted in the organization for a very long time. He is 14-8 and has been in all types of fights. He has won as an underdog, and he has won as a favorite. He has headlined cards, and he has fought on the early prelims. He is a true fighter’s fighter. He is a well-rounded heavyweight who has beaten heavy hitters and out-grappled grapplers. His game is truly diverse in a division that is generally one note. He is 39 years old, which in this division is hardly an indicator of dropping off.
Ante Delija is making the jump to the UFC after a long and successful career in PFL. The 35-year-old went 8-3 in that organization and even won the 2022 PFL heavyweight tournament championship. As a pro, he is 25-6 with a 72% finish rate. Like Tybura, his game is fairly well-rounded, but he is much more likely to win the fight with his hands. I do not think his welcome to the UFC moment will be a happy one, but I am holding off. I have seen some sharp money on Delija, and I am hoping that we can get a plus price on Tybura by the time this fight goes off.
FIGHT WINNER: Marcin Tybura
UFC PARIS BEST BET: Pass
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Kaue Fernandes (-198) vs. Harry Hardwick (+164)
Over 2.5 rounds (-175) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+135)
Lightweight
Kaue Fernandes debuted versus the veteran Marc Diakese, losing a split decision in 2023. But since then, he is 2-0 with wins over Mohammad Yahya and Guram Kutateladze (as a +300 underdog)! He is on an upward trajectory after entering the organization as an afterthought. He is ridiculously hard to hit, only getting touched 1.32 times per minute. He also has a 100% takedown accuracy rate while landing 54% of his strikes. His profile is that of a fighter who will continue to stack wins.
Harry Hardwick is making his UFC debut with a 13-3-1 professional record. He is a former Cage Warriors champion and is peaking in his career, unbeaten in his last nine fights. He has seven career finishes, but I do not give him much finish equity in this matchup. I think Fernandes will win this fight with defense, and Hardwick will be frustrated in his debut.
FIGHT WINNER: Kaue Fernandes
UFC PARIS BEST BET: Pass
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Sam Patterson (-192) vs. Trey Waters (+160)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-166)
Welterweight
Sam Patterson is an intriguing prospect at welterweight because he has an impressive submission game and a ridiculously long frame. The 6’3” 29-year-old has a 78” reach and seven career wins via submission, contributing to his 13-2-1 career record. He is 3-1 in the UFC. In March, he starched knockout artist Danny Barlow as a +185 underdog. That being said, Barlow’s defense was nonexistent in that fight. His other two victories in the organization came against Yohan Lainesse and Kiefer Crosbie, who have a combined 1-6 UFC record. I am not quite sold on Patterson because he lacks head movement in standing exchanges.
Trey Waters is a prospect who has yet to reach his full potential. He is 9-1 as a professional fighter and 2-0 in the UFC. His one career loss came in Contender Series versus Gabriel Bonfim. Like Patterson, Waters has an impressive frame for this division. He is 6’5” with a 77” reach. He has shown great toughness in both of his wins, which have come via decision. His 85% takedown defense rate will be key here because he will outpoint Patterson on the feet and has a chance to win via knockout with good timing. Patterson keeps his head on a straight line, so if Waters stays defensively sound, he will have opportunities.
FIGHT WINNER: Trey Waters
UFC PARIS BEST BET: Trey Waters (+160) vs Patterson, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.6
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Brad Tavares (-218) vs. Robert Bryczek (+180)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)
Middleweight
Even if it hasn’t always been a good time, Brad Tavares has been around for a long time. The 37-year-old Hawaiian made his UFC debut in 2010 and has put together a 16-10 record. He is just 2-4 since 2022, but he essentially only fights ranked opposition. He has power but has not won via finish since 2018. But he is hard to deal with because he has toughness, and he has been in every position. Robert Bryczek is 0-1 in the UFC after losing to Ihor Potieria. Losing to Poteria is extremely concerning and indicates he does not belong in this organization. Give me the veteran.
FIGHT WINNER: Brad Tavares
UFC PARIS BEST BET: Parlay: Oumar Sy/William Gomis/Brad Tavares (+135), Risk 1 Unit to win 1.35
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Rinat Fakhretdinov (+110) vs. Andreas Gustafsson (-130)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-215) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+165)
Welterweight
Rinat Fakhretdinov looked like he was going to be someone in this organization, but his recent results have mostly been puzzling. He has a gaudy 24-2-1 pro record and is 5-0-1 in the UFC, but his last victory in October 2024 versus Leal was one of the biggest robberies the modern era of UFC judging has seen. Prior to that, he won a split decision versus Nicolas Dalby after fighting to a majority draw versus Elizeu Zaleski. He has a strong grappling game and 11 knockouts in lesser organizations, but he has never been able to make it happen in the UFC. Andreas Gustaffson is 12-2 as a pro and 1-0 in the UFC. He won his debut versus Khaos Williams because he was able to land 8 takedowns and control the fight with his grappling. I do not think that will work versus Fakhretdinov. For all his faults, the veteran Fakhretdinov knows how to win grappling exchanges.
FIGHT WINNER: Rinat Fakhretdinov
UFC PARIS BEST BET: Pass
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Shauna Bannon (+275) vs. Sam Hughes (-345)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-475) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+325
Women’s Strawweight
Shauna Bannon is a star in European MMA and is trying to leverage her 2-1 UFC record to more widespread acclaim. This is by far her toughest test as Sam Hughes is a 10-fight UFC veteran who has won five of her last seven fights. She has dispelled numerous UFC pretenders and knows how to win close. Her last two victories have come via split decision. Bannon is a better striker on paper, but her opponents have been the dregs of the division. Hughes can slow this fight down and cruise to a decision victory. But Bannon takes risks in the cage and fights like she has nothing to lose, making her a dangerous opponent.
FIGHT WINNER: Sam Hughes
UFC PARIS BEST BET: Pass
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UFC PARIS BEST BETS RECAP
- Nassourdine Imavov (+110) vs Borralho, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
- Mauricio Ruffy (-148) vs Benoit Saint Denis, Risk 1.48 Units to Win 1
- Trey Waters (+160) vs Patterson, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.6
- Parlay: Oumar Sy/William Gomis/Brad Tavares (+135), Risk 1 Unit to win 1.35
