UFC Perth Predictions – Ulberg vs. Reyes:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Perth best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Carlos Ulberg (-245) vs. Dominick Reyes (+200)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+114) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-145)
Light Heavyweight
Carlos Ulberg is 12-1 as a professional mixed martial artist. His one loss came in his UFC debut versus Kennedy Nzechukwu. In that fight, he learned a valuable lesson: Patience is needed at the highest levels of the game. Ulberg is an elite kickboxer with exceptional striking fundamentals and the power to end fights at any moment. But early in his career, he led with power and had the type of hubris that left him gassing in the second and third rounds, after not getting the highlight finish in round 1. He has developed as a fighter, and after edging out a decision versus the former light heavyweight champion, Jan Blachowicz, in his last fight, he is on the doorstep of a title shot. He possesses elite striking, solid takedown defense, and gives good interviews. He has all the makings of a UFC star. With a solid performance in front of a friendly Perth crowd, he could be fighting for the belt within six months.
Dominic Reyes has finally gotten back in the saddle after a tailspin that overtook his career in the aftermath of his failed title shot versus Jon Jones. Reyes went the distance versus Jones in 2020, and despite coming a few points from earning the belt, his career went into a complete tailspin. He was knocked out in his next three fights and also faced injury issues. But starting in 2024, Reyes reclaimed the momentum he had before his first title shot. In the last fifteen months, he has won three fights via knockout, showcasing the athleticism and finishing ability that had him on the path to UFC stardom. He is a very aggressive fighter with a high-level football pedigree. His chin was one of his key assets, but it is now in question. His speed and instincts cannot be doubted.
Reyes wants to get in his opponent’s face and overwhelm him with fast, hard shots leading to the KO. That recipe is excellent for fans to view and performs well against lower-level competition. I do not believe Reyes has technical striking skills anywhere near those of Ulberg. I think that if he wants to rush in, he will get knocked out, and I have little doubt he will rush in.
FIGHT WINNER: Carlos Ulberg
UFC PERTH BEST BET: Carlos Ulberg via KO (-140), vs Reyes, Risk 1.4 Units to Win 1
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Jimmy Crute (-224) vs Ivan Erslan (+185)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-135) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+105)
Light Heavyweight
Jimmy Crute is back from retirement. I wish I could say he now looks better than ever, but that would be pure Aussie propaganda. In his return fight, he fought Rodolfo Bellato to an exciting draw. In July of this year, he submitted Marcin Prachnio, which on the surface seems like a positive result, but the victory loses some of its luster when you take into account Prachnio is now 37 years old and has lost three of his last four bouts. Crute is still just 29 and is theoretically still improving, but some of his mental lapses in the past are hard to shake. Jiu-Jitsu is his bread and butter, but he has become a bit of a fan favorite due to his willingness to get in firefights.
Ivan Erslan is 0-2 in the UFC but is somehow getting co-main event billing on this fight card. His two fights in the organization have come against Ion Cutelaba, who edged out a split decision, and Navajo Stirling, who is a high-potential prospect. Erslan has shown a willingness to walk into the fire, but also has a grappling deficiency. Crute has been in firefights versus much tougher competition and will have a massive advantage on the ground. This is a layup fight, and unfortunately for Erslan, it could be the final time we see him in the octagon.
FIGHT WINNER: Jimmy Crute
UFC PERTH BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below
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Jack Jenkins (-290) vs Ramon Taveras (+235)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-195) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+150)
Featherweight
Jack Jenkins is 3-2 in the UFC despite injuries plaguing his relatively short career. His best win came against Jamall Emmers via split decision in June of 2024, a bout in which Jenkins showcased his best technique and leg kicks. Jenkins is very tough and an old-school sprawl and brawler. He doesn’t want to grapple. He wants to pick apart opponents from the outside. He can get knockouts if they present themselves, but he does not force the issue and is more comfortable outpointing opponents and winning on the scorecards.
Ramon Taveras is 1-1 in the UFC with a suspect strength of schedule. He won a split decision vs Serhiy Sidey in his debut as a +165 underdog after missing weight by nearly four pounds. He followed that up with a decision loss to old man Davey Grant. He is now fighting up at featherweight and still missed weight by a pound. I don’t think he can win via finish at the UFC level, and his repeated weight issues make me question his focus on the sport.
FIGHT WINNER: Jack Jenkins
UFC PERTH BEST BET: Pass
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Jake Matthews (-380) vs Neil Magny (+300)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+114)
Welterweight
Jake Matthews is a former UFC wunderkind. He is now 31 years old, but he debuted in the organization at age 19. He was considered an eventual title challenger, but his skills never developed sufficiently to reach the top echelon of the organization. He still is an excellent BJJ practitioner and has put together a few knockout victories in the organization, but overall, he has already reached his ceiling. That ceiling is not bad: It’s as a worthy member of the UFC roster and gatekeeper. He is also on a three-fight win streak, indicating that he potentially does have new heights to reach. This opponent will be a good test, though, because fighting Neil Magny requires a high fight IQ and zero deviation from the game plan.
Neil Magny is 38 years old and has entered the UFC octagon 35 times. He has an elite clinch game and is well-rounded. He has been a gatekeeper for nearly a decade. Most of his losses as of late have come against upstarts, and his wins have come versus fellow veterans. His physicality has perhaps diminished with age, but his dedication to the sport has not. There are no easy fights versus Neil Magny, and he is as good as anyone at punishing mistakes. This is an interesting fight because the winner will not vault to contender status, and the loser will perhaps fall to one of the bottom spots on the roster.
FIGHT WINNER: Jake Matthews
UFC PERTH BEST BET: Pass
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Tom Nolan (-148) vs Charlie Campbell (+124)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+154) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-200)
Lightweight
Tom Nolan is a high ceiling prospect who won in Contender Series via first-round knockout and is now 3-1 in the UFC. He lost his debut due to overaggression and lack of respect for his opponent, Nikolas Motta, but has righted the ship and won three fights in a row. He is only 25 years old and has elite potential given his striking prowess and 6’3” frame. Charlie Campbell also has solid potential. He is 2-0 in the organization and has navigated tough tests versus Alex Reyes and Trevor Peek. Campbell has solid striking and a good 72.5” reach on his 6’ frame. Nolan has more tools in his belt and a much better ability to inflict damage in all phases of fighting. I expect the Aussie to get it done and Campbell to lose for the first time in the UFC.
FIGHT WINNER: Tom Nolan
UFC PERTH BEST BET: Tom Nolan (-148) vs Charlie Campbell, risk 1.48 Units to WIn 1
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Navajo Stirling (-258) vs Rodolfo Bellato (+210)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+140)
Light Heavyweight
Navajo Stirling is another tall and long high-potential fighter from Oceania on this fight card. The 27-year-old is 7-0 as a professional and 2-0 in the UFC. However, both of his UFC wins were via decision, despite him being a massive favorite of -320 or more in both fights. It is hard to penalize someone for winning, but the New Zealander has perhaps left a few highlights in the cage. He is 6’4” with a 79” reach. His striking often looks instruction-manual crisp, but he perhaps is a bit too content to see the judges’ scorecards if the finish doesn’t come easily. Rodolfo Bellato is an exciting striker, but there are some questions about what he thinks his ceiling is in this organization. He won his debut via finish versus Ihor Potieria, but he followed that up with a draw versus Jimmy Crute and a no contest versus Paul Craig. The Crute fight was there for the taking, but he couldn’t capitalize, and the no contest versus Craig was perplexing because it felt like he could have continued. I expect Stirling to win here, but a weird decision is definitely on the table given the way both of these men have struggled to cement their status in later rounds.
FIGHT WINNER: Navajo Stirling
UFC PERTH BEST BET: Pass
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Andre Petroski (-180) vs Cam Rowston (+150)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-130)
Middleweight
Andre Petroski is a high-floor, low-ceiling fighter. He has excellent wrestling skills, which enable him to control most opponents. His striking is improving, but it is still relatively basic. He is good enough to beat up on the bottom of the division, but when he faces opponents near the top 15, he usually falters. Cam Rowston is making his UFC debut after going 1-1 in Contender Series. He has fought mostly in the Australian regional scene, which is hit or miss when it comes to projecting UFC success. I have a feeling Petroski will navigate his way to a boring decision.
FIGHT WINNER: Andre Petroski
UFC PERTH BEST BET: Pass
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Jamie Mullarkey (-125) vs Rolando Bedoya (+105)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-195) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+150)
Lightweight
Jamie Mullarkey is a fighter who relies on forming a good game plan and sticking to it. He is not good at adjusting on the fly because he lacks the athleticism necessary to cover up technical gaffes. He is 5-6 in the UFC and has lost three of his last four fights. But fighting in front of a friendly Australian crowd should play a major factor in this fight. Rolando Bedoya is 0-3 in the UFC. He began his career as an undersized welterweight but has found a home in the lightweight division. He has not looked particularly impressive at any weight class. Like Mullarkey, he is a below UFC average athlete, and his lack of finishing potential allows opponents to move freely in the octagon. I think Mullarkey will edge out a decision in this contest.
FIGHT WINNER: Jamie Mullarkey
UFC PERTH BEST BET: Jamie Mullarkey (-125) vs Bedoya, Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
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Colby Thicknesse (+130) vs Josias Musasa (-155)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-115) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-115)
Bantamweight
Colby Thicknesse lost his UFC debut to Aleksandre Topuria. Despite the result being a relatively straightforward decision, Thicknesse showed well and looked like a capable UFC fighter despite taking the bout on short notice. Josias Musasa is a much more twitchy fighter with much more power and creative striking ability. That said, Musasa lost his UFC debut via rear naked choke because his ground game is rudimentary. If Musasa has gotten better at avoiding grappling exchanges, his power will win the day, but Thicknesse does have some craftiness, and he can win this fight if he finds top position on the ground.
FIGHT WINNER: Colby Thicknesse
UFC PERTH BEST BET: Pass
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Luana Carolina (+190) vs Michelle Montague (-230)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+120)
Women’s Bantamweight
Luana Carolina is a frustrating fighter because her wins and losses are far from equilibrium. She also has struggled with weight cutting in the past, which calls her dedication into question. She is in the best form of her career, riding a three-fight winning streak. Her last three opponents have mostly been grappling specialists, and she has used her impressive strength to foil their advances. Michelle Montague is an Australian fighter making her debut after putting together a 6-0 professional record with six wins via submission. She has previously fought in PFL and Bellator, so she is not fully ignorant of high-visibility fighting. There is usually a learning curve, and I am not certain this fight will be as easy as the odds indicate.
FIGHT WINNER: Michelle Montague
UFC PERTH BEST BET: Pass
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Brando Percic (-225) vs Elisha Ellison (+185)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+170) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-220)
Heavyweight
Brando Percic and Elisha Ellison were initially booked to fight in Contender Series last month. But perhaps due to the lack of depth in the heavyweight division, the fight was rebooked on this preliminary card. Neither fighter has fought more than six times as a pro. Both fighters have one professional loss and 100% finish rates. This fight is here to provide high-volatility entertainment, which I support, but I don’t like to bet on.
FIGHT WINNER: Brando Percic
UFC PERTH BEST BET: Pass
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Loma Lookboonme (+195) vs Alexia Thainara (-238)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-280) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+210)
Women’s Strawweight
Loma Lookboonme is a technical fighter who lacks size, strength, and athleticism. She can find victory against sloppy and low fight IQ opponents, but she is not good versus women who can overpower her. Alexia Thainara has a short UFC resume at 1-0, but she is very strong and no stranger to grappling. She will have more power than Lookboonme and projects to win this fight easily if she can take it to the ground.
FIGHT WINNER: Alexia Thainara
UFC PERTH BEST BET: Parlay- Jimmy Crute/Alexia Thainara (+105), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.05
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UFC PERTH BEST BETS RECAP:
- Carlos Ulberg via KO (-140) vs. Dominick Reyes, Risk 1.4 Units to Win 1
- Tom Nolan (-148) vs. Charlie Campbell, risk 1.48 Units to Win 1
- Jamie Mullarkey (-125) vs. Rolando Bedoya, Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
- Parlay: Jimmy Crute/Alexia Thainara (+105), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.05
