UFC Predictions: Cannonier vs. Borralho
The APEX in Las Vegas hosts this week’s UFC LV96 in their smaller octagon. On this week’s card are two TUF final bouts which bring the total fights on the card to eleven. Let’s look at this week’s UFC predictions.
Last week, underdogs finally raised their heads and realized a 5-6-1 result, knocking the favorites’ winning percentage this year to 66.7%, which is still extremely high.
Let’s hope what we saw last week will not be such a rarity as we move into the last half of the 2024 UFC fighting calendar.
Digital results stand 21-16 +10.28u on the heels of King O’Neill’s (+145) victory.
Caio Borralho -205 vs. Jared Cannonier +175
Middleweight (185 pounds) main event
Fifth-ranked middleweight Jarod Cannonier is focused on a title run. Cannonier, who has competed at heavyweight, light heavyweight, and middleweight, is 40 years old. Though he usually competes like a man many years younger, in his last effort in June, he did not.
Cannonier has a granite jaw and an unbreakable will. He’s felt the power of sluggers well larger than his current division and has managed to best every middleweight he’s faced save for his bout against then-champion Israel Adesanya and his last outing, the aforementioned clunker against France’s Nassourdine Imavov.
At middleweight, Cannonier is unusually fast and adroit while retaining the power he possessed when he fought at the higher divisions. Cannonier’s grappling is complete but untested.
More concerning is his immediate desire to earn another title opportunity as opposed to waiting a few months to recharge. He may feel like his last fight was out of the ordinary, or he could be rushing back in a touch of haste because he understands the odds of 40-year-old men competing in this game against skilled men close to a decade younger.
Cannonier coming off a TKO against Imavov just seven weeks ago compounds my skepticism. This is a foundational fight for Cannonier and his future in the top five of this most competitive division.
In twelfth-ranked Brazilian Borralho, we have the poster boy for his team, which is called the “fighting nerds.” Borralho wears glasses and looks to be more valedictorian than middleweight challenger until he steps into an octagon.
He and his team wear crooked glasses that tote white tape on the hinge to help them ‘look the part.” Though these young athletes may look goofy, awkward, gangly and odd, please understand that each one is technically versed in their own world-class dialect of BJJ and the martial arts.
In the cage, Borralho is an elite talent. He is lightning-fast. He has solid wrestling/grappling acumen to compliment his highly intricate athleticism and BJJ aptitude.
Cannonier has the advantage in size (unusual) and experience in this fight. He’s fought killers from three different UFC divisions. Primarily a boxing/kickboxing threat, Cannonier has also developed a grappling game, though we’ve seen little of it in his past fights.
That may well change Saturday, for I believe that Borralho will force Cannonier into engagements that will test Cannonier’s grappling, takedown defense, and submission guard.
Key factors for me in this fight are Cannonier’s age, the attrition his body has taken from an extensive career in martial arts spanning three different weight classes and his desperation to get one more shot at the middleweight title.
Coming into such a critical fight after a near-knockout loss just two months ago has me wondering what the rush was for Cannonier to get back into the cage so fast and against this type of elite opponent.
We understand that fighters at least nine years younger than their opponents have a nearly 70% rate of winning in the UFC. That coupled with the mixed martial arts weaponry of Borralho may make it a long night for Cannonier in the APEX Saturday if Cannonier is unable to back Borralho up and keep this fight upright.
In Saturday’s main event, two world-class 185-pound athletes will contend for Cannoniers’ fifth-ranked position in the division.
Total in this fight: 3.5 rds. Over -175
Michael Morales -600 vs. Neil Magny +470
Welterweight (170 pounds)
Last week, I broke down a fight in which novice Brazilian razor blade Carlos Prates fought wily veteran Li Jingliang of China. The gist of the write-up was centered around the dynamic speed, ferocity, precision striking/kicking, and evasive defensive abilities of the younger Prates and how those abilities matched up against a methodical, grizzled, wily, durable, tough but aged veteran of the sport of MMA who had never been stopped prior.
Prates annihilated Jingliang. He was the first one to finish the proud Chinese warrior in the late second round of their fight.
For the 37-year-old Neil Magny, a long, tall, grizzled veteran of more than thirty UFC competitions, it’s unfortunate that he doesn’t draw a more favorable matchup than facing one of the most violent mixed martial artists in the organization in 25-year-old Morales.
Magny arrives at this tussle off a nice upset win over Canada’s Mike Malott this past January. In that fight, he was also totally disrespected as he closed close to a +300 underdog, so at least Magny is used to the treatment.
Magny’s a superior grappler whose long, tall frame sets him up with excellent submission abilities. His height/reach advantage and fluidity of movement on the feet are helpful when fights remain standing.
The issue, however, is that Magny is not fast or overly durable. While he is crafty, beguiling, and has an exceedingly high IQ in the octagon, he is also in the twilight of a lengthy career.
The incoming breed of young, hungry, and well-balanced mixed martial artists is salivating to be matched up with these wise but aged UFC ambassadors, club them into unconsciousness, and walk away with their position within the division.
I’ve said before, the fight game is one tough pursuit.
Morales, now 25, is young, fast, powerful, and explosive, and he is a threat to finish any fight, wherever said fight may go. His level of competition and lack of experience need cultivation, and this fight with Magny is his first true test.
Magny will have to discover a way to use his experience and fighting acumen to perplex Morales, confound him with evasive movement/angles and keep him at the end of his strikes and kicks.
Magny cannot allow himself to be caught competing in any flat-footed striking encounters. He can’t allow Morales any ‘in pocket’ opportunities for a wide-stanched power shot heaving because Morales is a fighter who can end any athlete’s night with one power blast.
In my estimation, the UFC’s treatment of this fight ambassador is similar to that of Li Jingliang last week, putting him in with a foe he is unlikely to be able to compete effectively against.
UFC fans understand that in mixed martial arts, the fittest survive, and there is little way to sidestep tomorrow’s future stars like this gifted newcomer Morales.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -175
Jacqueline Cavalcanti -185 vs. Josiane Nunes +160
Women’s Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Portugal’s Cavalcanti arrives ready for her sophomore UFC fight, but in this matchup, her foe is considerably more talented than the fighter she faced in her debut.
Cavalcanti, primarily a striker, looks the part for sure. She’s 5-foot-8, which will provide her with a six-inch height advantage in this bout. She also holds a four-year youth advantage to go with her four-inch reach advantage. Cavalcanti will want to keep this fight at distance and standing for her most advantageous outcome.
In Nunes we have a short 5-foot-2 hand grenade. The Brazilian is also a power striker with an emphasis on power.
Despite her being tremendously undersized physically, opponents find out immediately that when fighting Nunes, it’s not the size of the dog in the fight. It’s the size of the fight in the dog.
In this fight, Nunes has an edge in fight experience and quality of opponents. She beat the only UFC-level fighter that Cavalcanti beat previously, Zarah Fairn.
The betting market has taken Cavalcanti from -110 at open to the current -185, and that must be based on her size and some ‘Nunes fade.’ There is nothing else about this fight that makes me feel Cavalcanti has the advantage.
UFC Prediction: Nunes +160
Nunes decision should also come at a large plus price once released. Don’t be afraid to add a touch of investment there, especially with the total 2.5 Rds. Over -260!
Friday mid-day, the ‘Bout Business Podcast is available at GambLou.com. Catch all of my official releases and UFC predictions there. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the hostilities.
