UFC Predictions for UFC Las Vegas 100 – Magny vs. Prates:
The APEX facility in Las Vegas hosts this week’s UFC Las Vegas 100 event, one of five remaining fight cards scheduled for 2024.
Favorites in 2024 are 312-127-13 or 69%, which is a staggeringly high figure. Favorites customarily run about 62-63% in the UFC.
This column’s profitability stands 26-22 +9.65 units on the year, but with a little more underdog cooperation results could have been more pronounced. That said, as an underdog player, that’s a solid return on any year.
I am confident that an underdog correction will come. We may just have to be a bit more patient.
Neil Magny +425 vs. Carlos Prates -575
Welterweight (170 pounds) main event
Magny, ranked 15th in the division, has competed in the UFC since 2013. A brown belt in BJJ, Magny is unusually long and lanky for his weight. His long angular frame contributes to his ability to manipulate foes into unfavorable positions and then find a choke, neck, arm or leg as he is wonderfully versed in the submission game.
Magny has competed against the elite of the welterweight division for more than a decade now and has seen every threat possible beginning with Ian Machado Garry, whom Magny fought last year, and ending with a competitive bout against Columbian Michael Morales in his last outing.
Magny is much more experienced than his opponent, has a two-inch height/reach advantage and has faced a far superior set of UFC adversaries than Prates has.
Prates is a violent young man who has devastated his first three UFC opponents. His level of competition has been ratcheted up with each fight. Now he steps up against a top-15 competitor in Magny.
Prates will test his destructive striking pressure against Magny’s legitimate MMA skill.
Prates will press forward and try to slobber-knock Magny into the shadow realm while Magny will use his guile, footwork and length to keep Prates at a distance and force him to eventually become impatient/reckless upon entry or in trying to gain inside position.
Prates has not fought into a third round in his last nine fights over four-plus years, so Magny will try to push him beyond that. If he succeeds, he may use his grappling pressure against the younger Brazilian late in this fight and make him defend rather than advance.
So while Prates will look to overwhelm Magny with blunt force trauma, Magny will attempt to slay a raging bull with intellect, movement, diversity of attack and patience.
In the end, I believe Prates will find a way to get his hand raised, but the price mandates a small investment on Magny or pass.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Under -205
Miles Johns -165 vs. Cody Garbrandt +145
Bantamweight (135 pounds) co-main event
Johns, 30, has won his last couple of fights over solid competition, which put him in line for this opportunity to place the pelt of Garbrandt, the former bantamweight champion, on his mantle.
Johns has a solid wrestling base with solid boxing/kicking acumen. He’s durable, athletic and has been beaten only by ranked athletes or those just outside the top 15 of the division. He also has run afoul of the Nevada Athletic Commission a couple of times for using banned substances.
Garbrandt has been working his ass off to regain his form as a fluid, top-15 fighter. He is extremely athletic, versed in boxing, Muay Thai striking and wrestling. He has faced the elite of the division throughout his career, and he longs for a victory over a solid fighter like Johns to propel him upward into the division in his attempt to squeeze out one more title run.
Garbrandt still has an abundance of athleticism and punching power. He won two fights before being submitted in his last outing against Deiveson Figueiredo, who is a bona fide top-five athlete in the division.
Johns has the edge in youth and physical reach, but Garbrandt is taller and quicker and has the advantage in footwork and power.
Garbrandt opened -130, but Johns is now the favorite. I believe the switch offers value seekers an opportunity with the former champion.
UFC Las Vegas 100 Best Bet: Garbrandt +145
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Under -160
Cody Stamann +240 vs. Da’Mon Blackshear -280
Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Stamann has been in the cage with the division’s elite. He’s a very solid wrestling-based fighter with power in his hands, though he is not fluid afoot or elastic with his striking.
Stamann, who has dropped his last two fights, uses his pressure wrestling to gain inside position. From there he’ll work in close, forcing opponents against the fence, then onto the mat. Once the fight hits the floor, Stamann will do all he can to gain top position as ground and pound is his best avenue to victory here.
Blackshear has also lost his last two fights. He’ll mirror Stamann’s desperation and focus, but Blackshear is four inches taller than Stamann and has a nine-inch reach advantage. Those physical superiorities are foundational to the outcome of this fight as long as it remains standing.
Blackshear is strong, and adroit. And I believe his overall mixed martial arts weaponry is more complete than Stamann’s. Stamann’s wrestling acumen and experience make this fight one of the best “styles make fights” bouts on the card.
Stamann’s best chance is to floor the younger, taller Blackshear.
If Blackshear can keep this bout standing, he’ll force Stamann out of his comfort zone and into desperate attempts to take him to the canvas.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -380
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