UFC Predictions for UFC Vegas 100 – Magny vs. Prates:
The APEX facility in Las Vegas hosts this week’s UFC Las Vegas 100 event, one of five remaining fight cards scheduled for 2024.
Favorites in 2024 are 312-127-13 or 69%, which is a staggeringly high figure. Favorites customarily run about 62-63% in the UFC.
This column’s profitability stands at 26-22 +9.65 units on the year, but with a little more underdog cooperation, results could have been more pronounced. That said, as an underdog player, that’s a solid return on any year.
I am confident that an underdog correction will come. We may just have to be a bit more patient.
Neil Magny +425 vs. Carlos Prates -575
Welterweight (170 pounds) main event
Magny, ranked 15th in the division, has competed in the UFC since 2013. A brown belt in BJJ, Magny is unusually long and lanky for his weight. His long angular frame contributes to his ability to manipulate foes into unfavorable positions and then find a choke, neck, arm, or leg, as he is wonderfully versed in the submission game.
Magny has competed against the elite of the welterweight division for more than a decade now and has seen every threat possible, beginning with Ian Machado Garry, whom Magny fought last year, and ending with a competitive bout against Columbian Michael Morales in his last outing.
Magny is much more experienced than his opponent, has a two-inch height/reach advantage and has faced a far superior set of UFC adversaries than Prates has.
Prates is a violent young man who has devastated his first three UFC opponents. His level of competition has been ratcheted up with each fight. Now, he steps up against a top-15 competitor in Magny.
Prates will test his destructive striking pressure against Magny’s legitimate MMA skill.
Prates will press forward and try to slobber-knock Magny into the shadow realm, while Magny will use his guile, footwork, and length to keep Prates at a distance and force him to eventually become impatient/reckless upon entry or in trying to gain inside position.
Prates has not fought into a third round in his last nine fights over four-plus years, so Magny will try to push him beyond that. If he succeeds, he may use his grappling pressure against the younger Brazilian late in this fight and make him defend rather than advance.
So, while Prates will look to overwhelm Magny with blunt force trauma, Magny will attempt to slay a raging bull with intellect, movement, diversity of attack and patience.
In the end, I believe Prates will find a way to get his hand raised, but the price mandates a small investment on Magny or pass.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Under -205
Cody Stamann +240 vs. Da’Mon Blackshear -280
Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Stamann has been in the cage with the division’s elite. He’s a very solid wrestling-based fighter with power in his hands, though he is not fluid afoot or elastic with his striking.
Stamann, who has dropped his last two fights, uses his pressure wrestling to gain inside position. From there he’ll work in close, forcing opponents against the fence, then onto the mat. Once the fight hits the floor, Stamann will do all he can to gain top position as ground and pound is his best avenue to victory here.
Blackshear has also lost his last two fights. He’ll mirror Stamann’s desperation and focus, but Blackshear is four inches taller than Stamann and has a nine-inch reach advantage. Those physical superiorities are foundational to the outcome of this fight as long as it remains standing.
Blackshear is strong and adroit. And I believe his overall mixed martial arts weaponry is more complete than Stamann’s. Stamann’s wrestling acumen and experience make this fight one of the best “styles make fights” bouts on the card.
Stamann’s best chance is to floor the younger, taller Blackshear.
If Blackshear can keep this bout standing, he’ll force Stamann out of his comfort zone and into desperate attempts to take him to the canvas.
Blackshear opened a fair -170 in this fight. His current price is out of whack so with that in mind I’ll invest in Stamann.
UFC Vegas 100 Best Bet: Cody Stamann +240 .5u.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -380
Tresean Gore -185 vs. Antonio Trocoli +155
Middleweight (185 pounds)
Tresean Gore, 1-2 in the UFC, has not competed in the cage since late 2022. He’s athletic, quick, and looks to ‘shoot’ on opponents to take them down and then attempt to submit them. At 30, he is still in the development stages of his MMA fighting career, which I think will factor in this fight.
Trocoli is resurrecting a career he put on hold years ago. A freak at 6’5”, he will have a substantial height advantage and seven-inch reach edge.
Provided Trocoli can use his legs to keep this fight in the center of the cage and the faster, shorter Gore on the outside, he’ll command respect with his leveraged kicking, knees and strikes.
Gore, an inexperienced fighter, must earn his way inside on a veteran striker who, in the first couple of rounds of any fight, is fast, refined, and powerful. I believe Trocoli is dangerous here, especially later in the week, as the finish props are released on this bout.
UFC Vegas 100: Antonio Trocoli +155 .5u
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Under -145
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