UFC Saudi Arabia Predictions – Adesanya vs. Imavov:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Saudi Arabia best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
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ALL ODDS VIA DRAFTKINGS UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED
Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya (-155) vs. Nassourdine “The Sniper” Imavov (+130)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-195) | Over 4.5 Rounds (+150)
At 35 and 1-3 in his last 4 fights, this is the bleakest the forecast has ever looked in Israel Adesanya’s historic UFC career. He will go down as one of the most exciting champions in middleweight history. Is Adesanya still worried about adding to his legacy, or is he happy with his countless highlights? That is the hardest part of handicapping this main event. If he has just a little hunger left, Adesanya should win this fight going away. If he looks like the guy who fought Sean Strickland, Imavov will make light work of the legend.
On paper, Adesanya lags behind Imavov in significant strikes landed per minute (4.00 to 4.51) and significant strike defense rate (56% to 58%). These numbers are the reflection of 17 UFC fights, 12 of which were versus champions or title contenders. Imavov has one career fight against a current or former UFC champion, Sean Strickland, a decision loss in which he absorbed 182 significant strikes. The flat striking numbers tell a lie. Adesanya laps Imavov in the stand-up game both offensively and defensively. But Imavov has one distinct advantage: grappling. If he can leverage this skill, he has a real shot at winning and catapulting himself into contention for the next title shot after Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland fight next week.
Imavov has landed 1+ takedowns in over half of his completed UFC fights while not spamming them like other fighters who have the skill. But Israel Adesanya’s 75% takedown defense rate is solid. More importantly, he is able to get back to his feet unless he is facing a bigger man like Jan Blachowicz (at light heavyweight) or the brutish champion Dricus Du Plessis. Moreover, I think there are some red flags on Imavov’s record, even in his wins. Jared Cannonier landed 58% of his significant strikes in his loss vs Imavov (Career 50%), with 42 significant head strikes. Adesanya’s striking is miles better than Cannonier’s.
Adesanya may have taken a step back, and Imavov is in the process of stepping up, but I don’t think their levels have met yet. Adesanya will need to be responsible with takedown defense through movement and distance. If he succeeds, he will pick Imavov apart.
FIGHT WINNER: Israel Adesanya
UFC SAUDI ARABIA BEST BET: Israel Adesanya (-145, BetOnline) vs Imavov, Risk 1.45 Units to Win 1
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Shara Magomedov (-185) vs. Michael “Venom” Page (+154)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-260) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+195)
Shara Magomedov had one of the best knockouts in the last few years when he defeated Armen Petrosyan via a double spinning back fist.—a move we’ve never seen before and may never see again. Magomedov is surging. He’s 4-0 in the UFC with two knockouts in just 15 months. But he hasn’t fought the tip of the spear yet. Michael “Venom” Page is 1-1 in the UFC after a storied career in Bellator in which he went 17-2. He is always exciting because he is lightning-quick with an unconventional striking style. Ian Garry was able to overcome this through wrestling, and Magomedov has already stated there will be no takedowns…
Page is stepping up from welterweight to take on Magomedov as a middleweight. At six-foot-three and with a 79-inch reach, he will not look out of place in the division, but he does run the risk of being overpowered, especially if Magomedov closes the distance and engages in the clinch. Despite the 4-0 record, there are potentially some scabs on Magomedov’s resume. He fought a timid striker in his UFC debut against Bruno Silva and won via decision. He landed a ton of volume in that fight, which makes it all the more surprising he wasn’t able to get Silva out of there. Additionally, he went the distance vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk, who is currently 7-7 in the UFC. His double spinning backfist knockout came in a fight in which Armen Petrosyan was extremely aggressive and had actually landed 77 to Magomedov’s 63 significant strikes at the time of the KO. The other KO came vs. Antonio Trocoli, who is UFC N.F.L. (not for long).
Page is unlikely to lead the dance with aggressive forward movement. He is also extremely quick and hard to pin down in one spot while on the feet. The 37-year-old Michael Page is probably more advanced than the upstart. But he is also on the tail end of his career and coming up a weight class. I do not like a bet on either side, but I do think we get a clear decision victory from one of these combatants.
FIGHT WINNER: Shara Magomedov
UFC SAUDI ARABIA BET: Magomedov/Page Fight Won via Unanimous Decision (-110), Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1
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Sergei Pavlovich (-285) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+230)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+145) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-188)
Sergei Pavlovich is at his best when he charges forward and swings his massive fists at his opponent. This is possible when he is not facing an opponent willing to employ the takedown, and who lacks hand speed. In this matchup, he is 1-for-2 because Jairzinho is the furthest thing from a wrestler on this fight card. But he is a violent striker with a high-level kickboxing background. Charging at him is a terrible idea because he’s faster than opponents expect and has more power than most heavyweights in the division. Rozenstruik is 9-5 in the UFC. His losses came to two wrestlers (Curtis Blaydes and Jailton Almeida), two technical strikers (Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov), and one freak of all freaks (Francis Ngannou). Pavlovich hasn’t landed a takedown in the UFC, is more of a brawler than a technician, and has freakish power but nowhere near what Ngannou was slinging in his UFC days.
Pavlovich is 6-3 in the UFC, with the losses coming to Alexander Volkov, Tom Aspinall, and Alistair Overeem. All three are technical strikers, and Aspinall stands out as having freakishly fast hands. I do not put Jairzinho on their level for certain. But he is still a unique puzzle to solve with tons of heavyweight UFC experience. These odds are out of line because I do not think Pavlovich knows how to fight with the formula he needs to get Rozenstruik out of there. He has the potential to catch his chin or dive deep into his Greco-Roman wrestling background, but at these odds, I like the dog.
FIGHT WINNER: Jairzinho Rozenstruik
UFC SAUDI ARABIA BEST BET: Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+255, BetMGM) vs Pavlovich, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.55
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Said Nurmagomedov (-166) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (+140)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+140)
Not all Nurmagomedovs are the same. Said is not related to Khabib, Umar, or Usman, but he does have more professional losses (3) than all three combined. That being said, 18-3 and 7-2 (5 finishes) in the UFC is nothing to scoff at. He has a strong submission game, but his ability to find homes for devastating kicks and punches can catch opponents off guard. He lost a tightly contested bout versus Jonathan Martinez via decision, and his first UFC loss came when Raoni Barcelos was able to get a few takedowns and maintain control in rounds 2 and 3.
Vinicius Oliveira is a fighter brimming with potential. He won via KO in Contender Series and followed that up with one of the fights of 2024 versus Bernardo Sopaj. He won via flying knee in the final round, showing he has the gas tank to bring the excitement late. More recently, he won a decision vs. Ricky Simon in which he landed nearly 100 significant strikes. Nurmagomedov will be his toughest test yet, but I do give him a striking advantage. Additionally, he held Ricky Simon to just 2/11 on takedown attempts, meaning that path may be closed for Said.
FIGHT WINNER: Vinicius Oliveira
UFC SAUDI ARABIA BEST BET: Vinicius Oliviera (+140) vs Nurmagomedov, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.40
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Fares Ziam (+124) vs. Mike Davis (-148)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-260) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+195)
Fares Ziam got a rare finish in his last fight when fighting in front of a friendly French crowd in Paris. However, he is generally a decision fighter, the method of his first five UFC victories. He is a well-rounded fighter and long for the lightweight division with a 75-inch reach. But he is slighter in build and doesn’t overwhelm any opponents with strength or power.
Mike Davis is on the other side of the spectrum when it comes to physicality. He looks like he was cut from granite and is always the stronger fighter in the cage. He is on a fight win streak with two finishes, but he has not had the toughest road and has been a favorite in each of those victories.
When it comes to experience, Ziam has it in spades, but the physical tools and potential with Mike Davis are enticing. This will likely be a close fight that is contested on the judges’ scorecards, but I don’t have a strong opinion on the winner.
FIGHT WINNER: Fares Ziam
UFC SAUDI ARABIA BEST BET: PASS
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Muhammad Naimov (-310) vs. Kaan Ofli (+250)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+130)
Muhammad Naimov looked great in his first three UFC fights, going 3-0 with two finishes, including a KO versus Jamie Mullarkey in a late-notice fight up a weight class. However, in his last fight, he met the surging Felipe Lima, who was able to find the late rear naked choke submission. Ofli could still be a challenge, but nothing like what Lima presented. Ofli was the runner-up in the most recent edition of The Ultimate Fighter—a fine accomplishment, but I don’t think anyone would argue it was a deep season. Overall, he is 11-3-1 as a professional, with the bulk of those victories coming versus subpar competition. Overall, I believe Naimov has a path to victory wherever this fight ends up, and I am confident he gets his hand raised.
FIGHT WINNER: Muhammad Naimov
UFC SAUDI ARABIA BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Shamil Gaziev (-340) vs. Thomas Petersen (+270)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+130)
Shamil Gaziev has been great in the UFC, outside of his loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik in a Fight Night Main Event. He is massive at 6’4” and 260 pounds and is most frightening because he is usually very aggressive and has the ability to overwhelm opponents. Gaziev is 13-1 as a pro. A few more wins will get him a marquee position on fight cards once again. Thomas Petersen impresses me with exactly one attribute: cardio. He is 9-2 as a pro, with losses coming to Jamal Pogues and Waldo Cortes-Acosta back in LFA. I think Gaziev is a more powerful striker than both of those men, but he is also much more likely to run out of gas, which is my biggest fear in this bout. This fight feels made for Gaziev’s success.
FIGHT WINNER: Shamil Gaziev
UFC SAUDIA ARABIA BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below
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Terrance McKinney (-625) vs. Damir Hadzovic (+455)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+210) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-280)
Terrance McKinney is a five-minute fighter. In his 22 professional bouts, he has never seen the judges’ scorecards and has fought into round 2 just four times. He throws caution to the wind, chasing the finish while also leaving his chin and neck wide open for the taking. Damir Hazdovic is 38 years old with a 4-5 UFC record. He has been in the organization since 2016. Five of his UFC fights have gone the distance. In this matchup, his hand will be forced. He is susceptible to getting finished early by McKinney, but he is also likely to get the finish if he is able to attack his opponent’s terrible gas tank. He has not fought since 2022, so there could be some ring rust. At the same time, he is a veteran who is likely to show up ready for anything. I don’t like the McKinney price, but this fight will not be long in almost any scenario.
FIGHT WINNER: Terrance McKinney
UFC SAUDI ARABIA BEST BET: McKinney/Hazdovic Does Not Start Round 2 (-150), Risk 1.48 Units to Win 1
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Jasmine Jasudavicius (-258) vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (+210)
Under 2.5 Rounds (+240) | Over 2.5 Rounds (-330)
Jasmine Jasudavicius is a dog in the ring. She is relentless with her grappling and the pressure she puts on her opponents. But too much aggression could potentially be dangerous because Mayra Bueno Silva has four submission UFC victories. Another wrinkle in this fight is that Mayra Bueno Silva is fighting at flyweight after an unsuccessful stint up at 135 pounds. She lost in this weight class via decision vs. Marina Moroz due to an inability to stop the takedown and get back up off the canvas. That is how this fight most likely ends up, with Jasudavicius winning the decision.
FIGHT WINNER: Jasmine Jasudavicius
UFC SAUDI ARABIA BEST BET: Parlay – Jasmine Jasudavicius/Shamil Gaziev/Muhammad Naimov (+131), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.31
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Bogdan Grad (-102) vs. Lucas Alexander (-118)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-115) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-115)
This fight is already noteworthy because Lucas Alexander missed weight by 2.5 pounds, his second weight miss in as many fights. He is 1-2 in the organization, with both losses coming via finish. His win came via decision. His last fight was a KO loss to Jeka Saragih. (He was a -530 favorite in that bout.) Bogdan Grad is making his UFC debut after going 1-1 in Contender Series, with his win coming via split. His first attempt to earn a contract was a KO loss to Tom Nolan. In lesser organizations, he was a KO artist, but it has yet to be seen if his skills will translate to the big stage. This fight is a wildcard to me, but I do favor the newcomer slightly.
FIGHT WINNER: Bogdan Grad
UFC SAUDI ARABIA BEST BET: Pass
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Hamdy Abdelwahab (-125) vs. Jamal Pogues (+105)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-200) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+154)
Hamdy Abdelwahab debuted in the UFC nearly three years ago and won as a +170 underdog versus Don’Tale Mayes. But that fight is now listed as a no contest on his record because he tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs. He was suspended for two years and is now back in the UFC mix. He was an Olympic wrestler and has the pedigree to do big things in this division, but he must make up for lost time. Jamal Pogues is 2-1 in the UFC, with 100% of his UFC fights reaching the judges’ scorecards. He does not have overwhelming power, but he does have a great gas tank and has been able to push opponents deep into fights. There is potential that Hamdy Abdelwahab needs some time to get going after the prolonged absence; however, I think his wrestling skillset is going to be too much for Pogues. Pogues wants to grapple, but his level is nowhere near Olympic.
FIGHT WINNER: Hamdy Abdelhawab
UFC SAUDI ARABIA BEST BET: Hamdy Abdelhawab (-115, BetOnline) vs Pogues, Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
UFC SAUDI ARABIA BEST BETS RECAP
– Hamdy Abdelhawab (-115, BetOnline) vs Pogues, Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
– Parlay – Jasmine Jasudavicius/Shamil Gaziev/Muhammad Naimov (+131), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.31
– McKinney/Hadzovic Does Not Start Round 2 (-150), Risk 1.48 Units to Win 1
– Vinicius Oliviera (+140) vs Nurmagomedov, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.40
– Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+255, BetMGM) vs Pavlovich, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.55
– Magomedov/Page Fight Won via Unanimous Decision (-110), Risk 1.1u to Win 1
– Israel Adesanya (-145, BetOnline) vs Imavov, Risk 1.45 Units to Win 1
