UFC Saudi Arabia Predictions:
This week, the UFC visits Riyadh for a UFC Saudi Arabia Fight Night event scheduled for 12 fights and headlined by former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. Adesanya faces fifth-ranked middleweight Nassourdine Imavov.
The large 30-foot octagon and a raucous Saudi crowd will greet each battle with vigor. Scheduled for this card is a women’s flyweight fight. Women competing in a UFC bout in Saudi Arabia has been downright rare up until Saturday.
As a special reminder, fight prelims begin at 6 a.m. PT, so viewers on the West Coast may mix their KOs with coffee.
Favorites this year stand 15-10-1, so there has been immediate regression at the start of 2025, which is welcomed by underdog chasers. I’m interested in determining if these first two cards of the year represent potential long-term correction or simply temporary relief from last year’s stringent rate of favorites.
Thus far in 2025, digital fight results stand 1-2, -1.0u on the strength of Islam Makhachev’s submission victory over late replacement Renato Moicano in UFC 311.
Israel Adesanya -166 vs. Nassourdine Imavov +140
Middleweight (185 pounds) main event
Imavov is a Russian athlete who is training in Paris, France. After a one-sided loss to Sean Strickland in January of 2023, Imavov changed camps, which resulted in him rebounding to win his last three bouts against respected, ranked middleweight competition.
Imavov is a solid grappler/wrestler by numbers as well as by attitude. He does his best work pressuring opponents and then initiating grappling forays. His striking is power-based and underrated, though not flashy and precision-based.
Imavov’s strength is his durability and toughness. His focus is to wrest opponents to the mat for a roll, and while his grappling is complete, it can be depleting. In past fights, Imavov’s high output has affected his energy late in fights. He will absolutely need to address it in this scheduled five-round war.
In former champion Adesanya, we have a perfect dance partner in fight style to Imavov’s pressure grappling. Adesanya is fluid afoot, deft in his ability to kick, strike and counterstrike from any angle. His ability to maintain space to deploy his offensive attack is exemplary. Adesanya’s manipulation of space creates unique striking/kick angles, which position him to damage opponents over time with striking/kicking volume.
This UFC Saudi Arabia main event represents a great clash in styles. Imavov will work to close the distance between himself and the former champion in order to press him against the cage and eventually ground him. There, he may use his strength and grappling to bludgeon and batter the former champion and make him question why he is still fighting.
A motivated, focused and pinpointed Adesanya will work to maintain distance using footwork, volume striking/kicking and deft strike evasion, and he’ll be able to execute that for all five rounds.
Adesanya’s goal will be to accrue damage to Imavov with knees, kicks and strikes using unorthodox angles, unusual speed, and a precision kicking attack.
Where this fight takes place will be a great tell as to who is in control. Adesanya’s abilities are surely muted when he is on his back. However, Issy has faced formidable grapplers in prior bouts, and his 75% takedown defense against the high level of competition he has faced must be acknowledged.
Adesanya’s athleticism, reach and length advantages will position him to potentially shred Imavov as long as Adesanya can keep this fight at distance and upright and provided he decides this is what he really wants.
Early on, this fight makes out to be a tight, competitive bout. However, should it enter the third round and beyond, a focused, motivated Adesanya, with his experience and competition faced, will hold advantage. There’s just one question: Which Issy do we get?
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Over -195
Said Nurmagomedov -165 vs. Vinicious Oliveira +145
Bantamweight (135 pounds)
There is a deep-seated disdain and rivalry between Russia and Brazil when it comes to MMA competition.
Nurmagomedov, the Russian athlete, is long, tall and an international master of sport in amateur MMA.
After a loss to Brazilian Raoni Barcelos in 2019, Nurmagomedov has disposed of five fighters while losing an ultra-close contest to Jonathan Martinez in a fight I actually scored for Nurmagomedov.
Nurmagomedov has the wrestling foundation that most Dagestani fighters possess. Coupled with the last name, it makes him a worthy representation of Russian MMA.
In Brazilian fighter Oliveira, we get a flamboyant, ultra-athletic, electric, power striker from Brazil who is decorated in BJJ. He’s lightning-fast, ultra-aggressive and takes fights directly to opponents with only the intent to finish.
In this UFC Saudi Arabia fight, Oliveira will be the younger man by three years. He’s slightly taller than Nurmagomedov, and his switch stance fighting style will provide Nurmagomedov plenty of tactical problems.
Nurmagomedov must try to ground Oliveira, gain top position, and then beat the BJJ out of him from the dominant position. That will be his singular goal.
Nurmagomedov’s striking will look subpar while these two compete on the feet. Oliveira’s athleticism, footwork and striking acumen will provide him great advantage as long as this fight remains upright.
Nurmagomedov will sell his soul for the takedown. Where this fight takes place will offer fans great insight into who will hold advantage in this great clash of national fighting philosophies.
Nurmagomedov opened -278 in this fight.
Total in this fight 2.5 Rds. Over -145
Mike Davis -135 vs. Fares Ziam +115
Lightweight (155 pounds)
French fighter Ziam has looked razor-sharp in his last four bouts. Ziam is tall, long and has solid striking ability. However, his takedown defense and wrestling are nominal in approach. Ziam’s been able to dominate average talent in the cage with his striking alone, He has faced few adversaries who have shown the ability to mix up the attack and pressure him with both a wrestling threat and striking fluidity.
With Mike Davis, we get a fighter who has been relatively inactive. The young man has had to overcome injury in order to compete, and his ability to remain active has been difficult. When he does enter the octagon, Davis has shown the ability to fight effectively on the feet by using volume power striking and intense forward pressure, but he has the wrestling base to compete in this fight where he seems to have great advantage.
Davis is different from other recent Ziam opponents in that he has formidable wrestling, and it is in his ability to mix it up and display a well-rounded mixed martial arts weaponry that provides him advantage in this fight.
That Davis has been inactive is not his fault, and if anything, he arrives to this fight fresh, ready to fire and completely under the radar.
Mike Davis is a potential top-15 athlete in the lightweight division. At UFC Saudi Arabia on Saturday, I believe he has a great performance.
UFC Saudi Arabia Best Bet: Mike Davis -135
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -220
Circa lines were used for these odds. Friday early a.m., the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops with my final releases for this fight card. Access it at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities.
