UFC Seattle Predictions – Cejudo vs. Yadong:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Saudi Arabia best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
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2025: 16-18 (-1.7 Units, -4.16% ROI)
Since 2020: 686-649 (+192.57 Units, 11.05% ROI)
PICK EM HISTORY
Last Week: 8-4 (66.67%)
2025: 40-21-1 (65.57%)
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ALL ODDS VIA DRAFTKINGS UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED
Henry “Triple C” Cejudo (+220) vs Song “Kung Fu Kid” Yadong (-270)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-195) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+150)
Henry Cejudo arguably has the most impressive collection of martial arts hardware in the history of MMA. He won a gold medal at the 2008 Beijing Olympics in freestyle wrestling. He then came to the UFC and won the flyweight title by defeating the most accomplished fighter in the division’s history (Demetrious Johnson); after that, he went up to bantamweight and won and defended the title before a three-year retirement. That being said, the run he was on pre-retirement has not been replicated in his two fights in the past two years. In 2023, he fought Aljamain Sterling for the bantamweight championship, and he lost via split decision. Nine months later, he took the first round against Merab Dvalishvili but lost the next two and lost a unanimous decision. He is 38 years old, and it is easy to look at his last two results and think Father Time has run its course and Cejudo is done. I have not fully bought into that narrative.
Song Yadong has a ridiculous amount of experience for being just 27 years old. He is 21-8-1 as a pro and 10-3-1 in the UFC. Half of his UFC victories have come via KO. He has great size for the division at 5’8” with a 67” reach. Additionally, he has already been the main event of three fight night cards. He has impressive wins vs. Marlon Moraes, Ricky Simón, and Chris Gutierrez, with two via finish. He has also tested himself against the top 15 versus Kyler Phillips, Cory Sandhagen, and Petr Yan but was unable to get his hand raised. He trains at the storied Team Alpha Male and gets direct coaching from the legend Uriah Faber. He is well-rounded and a true modern mixed martial artist with the striking ability to get the highlights fans love, and the grappling ability to control opponents and slow things down when necessary.
Last week, I talked about the diminished state of Jared Cannonier at age 40. I pointed out that he started at such an impressive place physically, even his reduced physical state is better than most. He proved my sentiment correct on his way to handing me an incorrect prediction about that main event. I can make a similar argument here regarding Cejudo in this fight. He is not as good as he was in his early 30s. But he was so good in his early 30s he is still easily a top 5 bantamweight contender. Song Yadong has not fared well versus the tip of the spear in the bantamweight division. I still put Henry Cejudo in that category. He came off a three-year layoff and lost via split decision in a championship fight. He followed it up by going the distance versus the division’s most untouchable man, Merab Dvalishvili. To win this fight, Yan needs to keep it standing and use his reach advantage to keep Cejudo at distance. Easier said than done. These odds are far too wide, and I am taking pedigree over potential.
FIGHT WINNER: Henry Cejudo
UFC SEATTLE BEST BET: Henry Cejudo (+220) vs Song Yadong, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.2
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Brendan “All In” Allen (+270) vs Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez (-340)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)
I have a ton of respect for the career Brendan Allen has put together in the UFC at 12-3 overall. No matter who you are fighting, in this organization, that is impressive. But I was the one pumping the breaks when he went on his seven-fight win streak. He did a great job picking opponents and got the job done, but none of those opponents have stand-out UFC accomplishments. When he got a main event versus Nassourdine Imavov, his weaknesses were exposed, and he lost a straightforward decision. His striking game has improved over the course of his career, but it is not a strength. His takedown game is more about volume than efficiency, and by far, his best trait is his gas tank, which generally has a shelf life in the UFC.
Anthony Hernandez cut it close to being out of the UFC before his career really even got started. He was 1-2 and a massive underdog versus the undefeated Rodolfo Vieira back in 2021. He turned the tables on the submission artist and won via second-round submission. He was on the verge of being N.F.L. (not for long) in the UFC but is now on a six-fight win streak, with the most recent two being the most impressive versus Roman Kopylov and Michel Pereira. He won both of those fights via finish and is on a four-fight finish streak overall. Like Allen, he has an impressive gas tank, but he has higher-level finishes versus tougher opponents.
These men fought for the LFA middleweight Championship in 2018. Hernandez won that fight via decision. I expect to see more of the same in this grudge match.
FIGHT WINNER: Anthony Hernandez
UFC SEATTLE BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Rob Font (+142) vs Jean Matsumoto (-170)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-330) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+240)
Rob Font is a UFC veteran who’s earned the right to share the cage with numerous bantamweight title holders and contenders. As such, he has an 11-7 record and is fair to classify as a gatekeeper. Since December 2018, he is 6-4, with all four losses coming to fighters who either held or fought for a UFC title. He has not seen an opponent with two or fewer completed UFC fights since he knocked out Matt Schnell in 2016. He has lasted in the cage for this long through impressive striking volume, landing 5.44 significant strikes per minute while avoiding nearly 60% of the strikes coming back his way. Historically, his weakness has been takedown defense, but he has often been able to return to the feet before taking significant damage. His ability to deal damage on the feet will determine this fight’s outcome.
Jean Matsumoto is 2-0 in the UFC and has looked great for the most part. He submitted Dan Argueta in his UFC debut and followed that with a unanimous decision victory in a war versus the veteran Brad Katona. He showed durability and a well-rounded game, scoring both on the feet and on the ground. But this is a massive step up in competition. Additionally, this fight was scheduled on short notice as the UFC Seattle fight card lost fights at an alarming rate. As such, this bout is taking place at a catchweight of 140 pounds. The easier weight cut benefits the older fighter much more than the younger and smaller Matsumoto.
FIGHT WINNER: Rob Font
UFC SEATTLE BEST BET: Rob Font (+142) vs Jean Matsumoto, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.42 Units
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Jean Silva (-500) vs Melsik Baghdasaryan (+380)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-105) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-125)
Jean Silva had about as good of a debut campaign as possible in 2024. Three fights, two weight classes, three wins via TKO. Not only did he get the finishes, but two of those finishes were versus tested veterans in Charles Jourdain and Drew Dober (up a weight class at lightweight). He is just 3-0 in the UFC, but his statistical profile fits that of someone who will be in the organization for a long time: over five significant strikes landed per minute, nearly 60% of opponent’s strikes avoided, 50% takedown accuracy, and 80% takedown defense. He has power, speed, and precision with his hands. Additionally, in Contender Series, before his first UFC fight, he won via decision over the course of 15 minutes, so it can be assumed he does have a gas tank.
Melsik Baghdasaryan is 3-1 in the UFC but has not been active since July of 2023 after an injury-plagued 2024. His background is in kickboxing, and he competed professionally before transitioning to MMA full-time. He has not fought the toughest UFC competition but has a very impressive striking profile with 61% significant strike accuracy and 58% striking defense. Every opponent he has faced has attempted to take him down, and he has a 72% takedown defense rate. I believe his striking ability will be a true test for Jean Silva. This fight has a good shot at going much deeper than Silva fans will expect.
FIGHT WINNER: Jean Silva
UFC SEATTLE BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Alonzo Menifield (-245) vs Julius Walker (+200)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-125) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-105)
Alonzo Menifield is a UFC veteran with a 8-5-1 record with six of his victories coming inside the distance. As of late, he has faced tough sledding, losing via knockout in the first round vs. Carlos Ulberg, and again in the second round versus Azamat Murzakanov. Those are both dangerous and experienced opponents with combined professional records of 25-1. His striking is not the cleanest, and his defense is average at best. But he is extremely dangerous, and most opponents are afraid to take risks because he can end any fight in an instant.
Julius Walker is a rangy light heavyweight at 6’5” with a 78” reach. He is just 25 years old and 6-0 as a mixed martial artist. He was a college basketball player before stepping away when he learned he was going to have his first child. He got interested in Jiu-Jitsu and, from there, transitioned to MMA. His regional MMA strength of schedule is far from great but he does have finish wins versus Nyle Bartling (Eliminated in R1 of The Ultimate Fighter) and Bevon Lewis (1-3 in the UFC). All of his pro wins have come inside the distance. Due to this fight card needing fights Walker got called up on short notice and was able to skip out on Contender Series and is taking on a veteran in his first pro fight.
I worry about Menifield’s chin after the damage he has taken. And I am a long-term believer in Walker’s potential, given his athletic background and long frame. Menifield is not likely to engage in takedowns, and on the feet, I am not confident the 37 year old will have a simple solution to avoiding Walker’s length and power.
FIGHT WINNER: Julius Walker
UFC SEATTLE BEST BET: Julius Walker (+200) vs Alonzo Menifield, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2 Units
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Ion Cutelaba (+154) vs Ibo Aslan (-185)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-115) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-115)
Ion Cutelaba is 18-10-1 as a pro and 7-9-1 in the UFC. He has not won consecutive fights in the UFC since 2018 and has had two multi-fight losing streaks in the UFC. Most people in his position would have been cut from the UFC long ago. However, he has been in some absolute firefights and had a reputation as one of the most exciting light heavyweights on the roster. That being said, his last two fights have gone to a decision. He lost to Philipe Lins (cut from UFC after the win) and edged out UFC newcomer Ivan Erslan via split decision in his last fight. Cutelaba is between a rock and a hard place. His best chance at winning is employing his wrestling and taking the fight to the mat, but if he puts out another boring performance, he is likely to get cut from the organization.
Ibo Aslan is a hard hitter. He is 14-1 as a professional. All of his wins are via knockout, and his one loss was via submission in regional competition (he avenged that loss vs. Anton Turkalj in the UFC). In his sophomore UFC performance, he was around a pick ’em vs. Raffael Cerqueira and won via KO in less than a minute. If there is any opponent that can bring out the old, exciting Ion Cutelaba, it is Ibo Aslan. If Aslan gets Cutelaba to fight the way he used to, Aslan is going to win via KO
FIGHT WINNER: Ibo Aslan
UFC SEATTLE BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below
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Andre Fili (+102) vs Melquizael Costa (-122)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-195) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+150)
Both fighters in this matchup are veterans, but Andre Fili has been in the organization since 2013 and has made 23 trips to the UFC Octagon. He is 12-10- and has fought virtually everyone of note in the featherweight division in the last decade. He is well-rounded, has a gas tank, and is an opportunistic finisher. In June of 2024, he beat Cub Swanson via split decision but hasn’t had a truly “strong” win since 2020 when he won via split decision versus Charles Jourdain. Melquizael Costa is an exciting fighter who is 2-2 in the UFC. He is a wild and aggressive fighter who won via submission in his last fight but was finished in both of his UFC losses. He is 21-7 as a professional with seven career knockouts but has yet to connect with that type of power in the UFC. I am skeptical of his style working versus a veteran with the experience of Andre Fili.
FIGHT WINNER: Andre Fili
UFC SEATTLE BEST BET: Pass
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Nick Klein (+800) vs Mansur Abdul-Malik (-1350)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+165) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-215)
Mansur Abdul-Malik is 7-0 as a pro and 1-0 in the UFC. He knocked out Dusko Todorovic in round one of his debut in November after winning via second-round ground and pound in Contender Series. Nick Klein is 6-1 as a pro and making his UFC debut. He won in Contender Series via first-round submission as a slight underdog. Prior to UFC, his strength of schedule is hot and cold with a win over Contender Series veteran Collin Huckbody and nothing else of real note. Mansur Abdul-Malik is a former collegiate wrestler and high school state champion in Maryland. The line tells the story here. He should dominate, but the price is too much for me to bet in any meaningful way.
FIGHT WINNER: Mansur Abdul Malik
UFC SEATTLE BEST BET: Pass
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Ricky Simón (+180) vs Javid Basharat (-218)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-360) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+260)
Ricky Simón is a streaky fighter who has lost three bouts in a row. The opponents, Song Yadong, Mario Bautista, and Vinicius Oliveira, are all very good and not easy outs for anyone. Prior to that, he was on a five-fight win streak with three wins inside the distance. He is also the last fighter to defeat Merab Dvalishvili in the octagon—a submission on a fight night card in 2018. He is a wrestler first and foremost and excels when he can chain together takedowns and grind out a decision.
Javid Basharat began his UFC career with a 3-0 record, all via decision. He followed that up with a no contest due to a groin strike versus Victor Henry and most recently lost as a massive -900 favorite versus Aiemann Zahabi. He was undefeated before that loss to Zahabi, and, as such, was probably overrated. He should be able to win striking exchanges versus Simon, but it is yet to be seen if he will be able to avoid takedowns from someone with Simón’s pedigree.
FIGHT WINNER: Ricky Simón
UFC SEATTLE BEST BET: Ricky Simón to win via Decision (+300, Bovada) vs Basharat, Risk 1 Unit to Win 3
Parlay: Anthony Hernandez/Jean Silva/Simon+Basharat over 2.5 Rounds (+100), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
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Austin Vanderford (-112) vs Nikolay Veretennikov (-108)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-125) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-105)
This is another fight at a catchweight due to the lengths to which the UFC went to make sure they had enough fights on the card to fill the agreed-upon time slots. This fight is taking place at 175 pounds, which I believe gives a slight advantage to Austin Vanderford. In Bellator, he went 5-2 as a middleweight, then fought at 170 pounds in the welterweight division in LFA, a fight Vanderford won via first-round knockout. Veretennikov has been a welterweight since 2017, so he may not be used to fighting with the extra weight. Vanderford is a grappler who generally does not get ahead with strikes. He wants takedowns, and he wants to win with position over submission, in short the reason why Bellator at its highest levels was not a good TV product. Veretennikov made his UFC debut in his last fight as a late replacement opponent for Danny Barlow. He lost via split decision. The circumstances of this fight, being short notice and both men having short UFC resumes, make it hard to predict.
FIGHT WINNER: Austin Vanderford
UFC SEATTLE BEST BET: Pass
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Nursulton Ruziboev (-285) vs Eric McConico (+230)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-125) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-105)
Nursulton Ruziboev is a big middleweight, standing 6’5” tall, which makes his last fight down at welterweight all the more crazy. He lost that fight via decision versus Joaquin Buckley in front of a hostile St Louis crowd. After that result, much of the hype behind this fighter has been extinguished. Prior to that result, he was 2-0 with two knockouts as a UFC middleweight. Both wins came via knockout. He was the main event in the fight he lost, and now he is relegated to the second fight of the night. This is a pivotal fight for his career. With a win, he would be 3-0 as a middleweight and worth getting excited about. If he loses, he could be back on the N.F.L. list.
Eric McConico was scheduled to headline a Tuff-N-Uff card last weekend but dropped out when he got the call from the UFC (another example of how desperate the organization was to fill this card). McConico is 9-2-1 as a pro fighter with a win over UFC veteran Maki Pitolo (1-5 in UFC) on the regional scene. Seven of McConico’s wins have come inside the distance, and he definitely is a finisher first. That being said, he is giving up five inches in height and an inch in reach so he could run into trouble at range. He does fight out of the MMA Lab alongside numerous UFC veterans and stars, so he should be more ready for the bright lights of a UFC event than most debutants.
FIGHT WINNER: Nursulton Ruziboev
UFC SEATTLE BEST BET: PARLAY: Nursulton Ruziboev/Ibo Aslan (+105), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.05
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Modestas Bukauskas (-270) vs Raffael Cerqueira (+220)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-140) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+110)
Modestas Bukauskas is on his second stint in the UFC. He went 1-3 the first time around, went back down to Cage Warriors and got two wins. In his return, he is 3-1 and is coming off a submission win versus Marcin Prachnio. He is 16-6 as a professional with nine wins via knockout but just one KO in the UFC (his debut, via retirement). His striking is lackluster, and his grappling game is adequate but not dominant. Raffael Cerqueira was 11-0 and granted an opportunity to skip Contender Series before making his debut. He was perhaps a little bit too confident because he was a slight favorite versus Ibo Aslan and lost via KO in the first minute of the fight. Ten of his 11 victories have come inside the distance, with 8 coming via KO. I think he is live in this fight, but I am worried that his impressive pre-UFC record has more to do with the level of his opponents than the strength of his abilities.
FIGHT WINNER: Raffael Cerqueira
UFC SEATTLE BEST BET: Pass
UFC SEATTLE BEST BETS RECAP
– PARLAY: Nursulton Ruziboev/Ibo Aslan (+105), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.05
– Ricky Simón to win via Decision (+300, Bovada) vs Basharat, Risk 1 Unit to Win 3
– Julius Walker (+200) vs Alonzo Menifield, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2 Units
– Rob Font (+142) vs Jean Matsumoto, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.42 Units
– Henry Cejudo (+220) vs Song Yadong, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.2
– Anthony Hernandez/Jean Silva/Simon+Basharat over 2.5 Rounds (+100), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
