UFC Shanghai Predictions – Walker vs. Zhang:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Shanghai best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
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*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Johnny Walker (+280) vs. Mingyang Zhang (-355)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+230) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-315)
Light Heavyweight
This is the lucky number eighth trip to China for the UFC and the second event hosted in Shanghai. The world’s top MMA organization has committed significant resources to developing MMA in China and has seen hit or miss returns. The number of fighters hailing from the region has surged, but “name brands” from The People’s Republic are still difficult to come by. I believe that Mingyang Zhang has the potential to become a household name if he continues on his current trajectory.
Johnny Walker is one of the best-known light heavyweights in the world. He has been in more exciting fights than just about anyone, and he has the type of highlight reel that ensures he will be given prominent billing for the rest of his career. But being in exciting fights isn’t always a good thing when the excitement comes from absorbing violent head strikes. He is 21-9 as a pro, but six of his losses have come via knockout. He is 2-2 with 1 no contest since 2023, with his last two fights ending via knockout loss. He is 7-6 (1 NC in the UFC) and there is a clear line of demarcation between the types of fighters he beats and the types who beat him. His last four losses have come to opponents who have either held or fought for the light heavyweight belt. His last two losses have come against fighters in the twilight of their careers. He is still a dangerous striker, and extremely lengthy at 6’6” with an 82-inch reach. He lands nearly four significant strikes per minute with a 53% accuracy rate. He also has more of a grappling game than he lets on. His striking defense is bad though.He only avoids 44% of the strikes coming his way. Mingyang Zhang is the type of striker who has the potential to punish Walker, and he may fall back on the grappling ability that led him to submit Ion Cutelaba three years ago.
Mingyang Zhang is 19-6 as a professional fighter at just 27 years old. He got his shot in the UFC after a first-round knockout of Tuco Tokkos in the Road to UFC series. Since making the jump to the big league, he is 3-0 with three first-round knockout victories. In April, he ended Anthony Smith’s UFC career and is being rewarded with a chance to showcase in front of a home crowd versus a big-name opponent. His limited UFC sample has yielded stunning striking numbers. He has landed nearly 11 significant strikes per minute with a 64% accuracy rate. Only Anthony Smith has attempted a takedown on Mingyang Zhang in the UFC, and he was unsuccessful. Although his grappling has not been tested at the highest level, it could still be his Achilles’ heel; two of his losses came via submission in lower organizations. He has not lost since 2019 and has won his last 11 fights via finish, and he has a 100% finish rate overall.
This fight is built around Mingyang Zhang growing his star and broadening his fan base. Johnny Walker is a fighter who is known for getting the fans on their feet. Walker’s chin is a major question. He has either avoided getting hit on the chin or lost every time he has fought since his UFC career began. That doesn’t mean Walker is a given to lose a striking battle. His reach will play a factor as he has seven inches on Zhang in that department. He has leg kicks, and he has his grappling to fall back on. But knows what Walker wants to do, keep the distance, or clinch if things get too close. Knowing what to do and actually doing it have always been issues for Walker. Zhang will be facing his best opponent yet. Walker is by far the most dangerous combatant he has seen in the UFC.
Given the current odds, this bet is extremely hard to bet. Zhang to win via KO is -280, Zhang to win via first-round KO is -145. The fight to end in Round 1 is -200. I expect Zhang to win, but I do not like the price on its own.
FIGHT WINNER: Mingyang Zhang
UFC SHANGHAI BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below
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Brian Ortega (+350) vs. Aljamain Sterling (-455)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-215) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+165)
Featherweight
Brian Ortega struggled in the weigh-ins ahead of this fight. Initially, there were rumors that he would withdraw from the event, but ultimately, the UFC settled on a catchweight to salvage their five-round co-main event. Ortega is a BJJ savant who has developed his boxing game over the course of his career. Facing off against Aljamain Sterling, one of the better wrestlers in the organization. Additionally, Ortega will be giving up two inches in reach despite the fact that Aljamain Sterling has spent most of his career down at bantamweight. Outside of having a wrestling advantage, Sterling also has an advantage when it comes to striking metrics. He is significantly more accurate and absorbs a third of the significant strikes per minute that Ortega eats. Ortega is more of a finisher, but Sterling is much more difficult to finish.
Sterling’s commitment to grappling position over submission has served him well in the past, and I expect it to play a factor here. He has never been submitted. I do not think Ortega has the striking power or technique to catch Sterling’s chin. I expect this to be a long fight, but there could be some issues with Ortega’s cardio after the failed weight cut. I think Sterling will control the bout and has a chance to find a finish if Ortega runs out of gas.
FIGHT WINNER: Aljamain Sterling
UFC SHANGHAI BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See below
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Sergei Pavlovich (-270) vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+220)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+140)
Heavyweight
Sergei Pavlovich is an all-action heavyweight who somehow saw the judges’ scorecards in his last two fights. He won a decision versus Jairzinho Rozenstruik in February; prior to that, he lost a decision to Alexander Volkov. Before that, his eight previous UFC fights ended via KO. He is a forward-charging striker who wants to win via KO, but versus Volkov, his one-dimensional game was exposed. He couldn’t stop the takedown, and he couldn’t get back up once taken down. Cortes-Acosta has taken an interest in wrestling in his past several fights and has used it to neutralize dangerous strikers.
Cortes-Acosta is 14-1 as a professional fighter. Before taking up mixed martial arts, he was a high-level baseball prospect. He has a fast right hand and moves very well for a large heavyweight. He doesn’t have overwhelming power, or at least doesn’t often put everything into his punches. He is 7-1 in the UFC with two wins via knockout. Defensively, he is hard to track down, and more than anything, he is brimming with confidence. I did not like what I saw out of Cortes-Acosta in his first few UFC fights. Even in victory, he came off as timid. But his fight IQ has skyrocketed as he has spent more time in the sport. He is faster and more athletic than Sergei Pavlovich. If he keeps his chin low and uses his mobility, he will win this fight. He is ready to take the next step in his career. I believe Pavlovich is already past his fighting peak.
FIGHT WINNER: Waldo Cortes Acosta
UFC SHANGHAI BEST BET: Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+220) vs Pavlovich, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.2
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Sumudaerji (-180) vs. Kevin Borjas (+150)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-250) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+190)
Flyweight
Sumudaerji is 17-7 as a pro and 4-4 in the UFC. He won via split decision versus Mitch Raposo in April, which ended a three-fight losing streak. Three of his UFC losses have come via submission. Three of his UFC wins have come via decision. He has a lot of knockouts in lower-level organizations. Maybe the juice of fighting in front of a Chinese crowd will help him connect better. Kevin Borjas is 1-2 in the UFC and earned his first victory in the Octagon in March versus Ronaldo Rodriguez. Sumudaerji is the more accurate striker and has better striking defense. But when it comes to pure striking volume, Borjas has a slight advantage. Borjas has not landed a takedown in the UFC, meaning this fight will have to take place standing. I do not doubt his durability, but I do not think he can outpoint Sumudaerji in front of a raucous Chinese crowd.
FIGHT WINNER: Sumudaerji
UFC SHANGHAI BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Taiyilake Nueraji (-470) vs. Kiefer Crosbie (+360)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+170) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-220)
Welterweight
Taiyilake Neuraji is making his UFC debut after an impressive run on the regional scene. He is 11-1 as a professional with a 100% finish rate (10 knockouts). He last fought in October 2024 and has had to withdraw from three subsequent fights. He is now looking healthy and getting a chance to step up in competition versus the veteran Kiefer Crosbie. The Chinese fighter is being given a soft landing in the UFC and needs to take care of business, especially at this price.
Kiefer Crosbie is in the UFC for fights exactly like this. He is experienced enough to mean something, but he has done absolutely nothing of note in the UFC. He went 4-3 in Bellator between 2018 and 2021, but two losses inside the distance sent him back to minor fight orgs. He won two fights in no-name organizations before getting a chance to fight in the UFC. He has lost both of his UFC fights via submission in the first round. He is 35 years old with a solid strength of schedule, but he has also had a better strength of schedule than his last two UFC opponents, and his intangibles were nowhere to be found. He is on a short leash with the UFC and needs to deliver some sort of interesting result to have a shot at keeping his spot on the UFC roster. Neuraj has never fought an opponent with experience beyond the Asian regional scene, making him a tough bet at this price.
FIGHT WINNER: Taiyilake Neuraji
UFC SHANGHAI BEST BET: Pass
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Maheshate (+105) vs Gauge Young (-125)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+130)
Lightweight
Maheshate has the impressive distinction of being the last man to beat the surging Steve Garcia. In June of 2022. He won via first-round knockout against the since 6-0 fighter. That was Maheshate’s UFC debut, and the results have been more bad than good after the hot start. He is 1-3 in his last four UFC fights, with the one win being a split decision victory versus Gabriel Benitez. Maheshate has startling UFC striking metrics, and not in a good way. He lands just 29% of his significant strikes while absorbing 5.64 per minute. Furthermore, he has never landed a takedown in the organization and has just a 45% takedown defense rate.
Gauge Young has potential in the UFC that is perhaps best called speculative. He is just 25 years old and 9-3 as a professional. In 2024, he lost in Contender Series versus the intriguing prospect Quillan Salkilld. Seven months after that defeat, he was given a chance to fight Evan Elder on short notice on a fight night card, and again he lost via decision. In his limited UFC sample, he is a more accurate striker than Maheshate, but also suffers from terrible striking defense. He only avoids 44% of the strikes coming his way and also has a nearly -2 striking differential. This fight is going to come down to whichever fighter can find efficiency in the striking game, and a knockout is definitely possible. Gauge Young has the potential to surprise with grappling, but I think on this card it will more likely be a fight that plays out as a race to the opponent’s chin. Both of these fighters are hanging onto their spots on the UFC roster by a thread. I expect there to be some desperation leading to hard contact.
FIGHT WINNER: Gauge Young
UFC SHANGHAI BEST BET: Maheshate/Young Fight Does Not Go the Distance (+105), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.05
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Lone’er Kavanagh (-218) vs Charles Johnson (+180)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-395) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+280)
Flyweight
Lone’er Kavanagh is a young fighter who seemingly has some juice within the organization. He is an English fighter of mixed Chinese descent. He is 2-0 in the UFC with a win last year on the UFC Macau Card and a follow-up victory in March of this year in London. He is back in China, where he projects to have the crowd behind him. Both of his UFC victories have come via decision. Overall, I am not 100% certain he is as good as advertised. He dropped rounds in both of his previous UFC fights and did not display the power that would surprise anyone. His cardio was arguably a liability, and neither of his previous UFC opponents has any sort of meaningful pedigree.
Charles Johnson is a company man, saying yes to any fight versus any opponent anywhere. He is a 34-year-old veteran who is 6-5 in the UFC and 4-1 in his last five fights. In March, he lost a fight to Ramazan Temirov because he didn’t start fast enough. He looked his best late in that fight, and I expect this fight to play out similarly. However, just because I think he will look good late does not mean I do not think he can win either the first or second round, too. I believe in his experience, and I think that Kavanagh is taking too big a swing at the deep flyweight division too soon. I expect Charles Johnson to put the first blemish on Kavanagh’s undefeated record.
FIGHT WINNER: Charles Johnson
UFC SHANGHAI BEST BET: Charles Johnson (+180) vs Kavanagh, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.8
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Rongzhu (-258) vs. Austin Hubbard (+210)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-260) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+195)
Lightweight
Rongzhu is 2-3 in the UFC over the course of two stints in the UFC. He went 1-2 the first time around, then went back to the regional scene and Road to UFC series. He is 1-1 in the organization after returning late last fall. His last victory is perhaps his best. In February, he won as a +280 underdog versus the then-unbeaten Kody Steele. Rongzhu fights at an extremely high pace, mixing in both a volume of strikes and takedowns that is hard to prepare for. Austin Hubbard is a UFC gatekeeper who has also had two stints in the organization. He is 4-7 in the UFC and was a runner-up in The Ultimate Fighter. Hubbard knows how to fight. He knows how to form a good game plan, but he runs into issues with his lack of physical tools and mental lapses at inopportune times that erase the good work he does at the beginning of rounds. He is not a very accurate striker, but he has solid striking defense and a good ability to mix in grappling. That said, his back is against the wall in this spot. I do not think he will win striking exchanges unless he can threaten Rongzhu’s impressive 84% takedown defense rate.
FIGHT WINNER: Rongzhu
UFC SHANGHAI BEST BET: Parlay- Zhang/Sterling/Rognzhu (+114), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.14
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Michel Pereira (-265) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+215)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+145)
Middleweight
How the mighty Michel Pereira has fallen. Not long ago, he was fighting on pay-per-view cards and in Fight Night Main Events. Now he is fighting on the undercard of an event that will take place in the middle of the night/early morning for most viewers in the Western Hemisphere. He has always been an explosive fighter who has the potential to get the crowd on their feet. But his lack of cardio and inability to properly manage his gas tank have long been an issue. He has raw power to knock opponents out, and he has a squeeze that yielded a rare standing guillotine choke versus Ihor Potieria in 2024. On paper, nothing really stands out. His striking numbers are good, his striking defense is good enough, and his grappling is better than most. He is always at risk, though, if he does not do heavy work early in the fight.
Kyle Daukaus has gone 4-0 since being cut from the UFC in 2022. He has mostly fought in Cage Fury, where he has been able to leverage his high-level submission game. His striking is fairly technical, but he has absolutely no chin and goes down quickly when caught in the pocket, exchanging strikes. This is not a good matchup for the Pennsylvanian, and taking this bout on relatively short notice is more bad than good. I think Pereira wins, most likely via knockout.
FIGHT WINNER: Michel Pereira
UFC SHANGHAI BEST BET: Parlay- Sumudaerji/Pereira (+116), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.16
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Yizha (-1200) vs Westin Wilson (+750)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+114) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-145)
Featherweight
Yizha is another Chinese fighter who has fought a ton for his age. At 28 years old, he is 25-5 overall but 0-2 in the UFC. He lost his debut back in 2023 after a Road to UFC journey that earned him a shot. After the loss, he was back on the Road to UFC circuit, winning three in a row. But last September, he lost his second UFC fight to Gabriel Santos. Both of his losses have come on the scorecards, and this is perhaps his best chance to find a submission, his favorite method of victory.
Westin Wilson got his UFC debut on short notice and was knocked out in the first round versus Joanderson Brito. He followed that up with an even harder matchup versus Jean Silva, another loss via first-round KO. With his back against the wall in June of last year, he was able to submit Jeka Seragih in the first round. The divergent level of his three UFC opponents makes him hard to read. He was annihilated by two of the better featherweights in the division. When he fought a low-level opponent, he dominated. I think that Rongzhu’s experience and the fact that this is his third bite at the apple will play a factor in this fight, but at this price, I cannot back him. I expect there to be grappling exchanges, and if that is the case, Wilson has the potential to find a choke.
FIGHT WINNER: Yizha
UFC SHANGHAI BEST BET: Pass
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Xiao Long (+105) vs SuYoung You (-125)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-315) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+230)
Bantamweight
Xiao Long had one of the better performances on last year’s UFC Macau fight card. He won via third-round KO in an all-action bout with Quang Le. He needed the win to get back on track after a split decision loss in his UFC debut. Like most Asian fighters on this card, he had an impressive run on Road to UFC before earning his shot. He fights with a high striking pace, attempting nearly 11 significant strikes per minute, landing 50% of his shots. Defensively, he is perhaps a bit sloppy, but that may not be a factor in this matchup.
SuYoung You is 2-0 in the UFC and a wrestler first. He won his Road to UFC tournament, then followed that up with a unanimous decision win versus AJ Cunningham as a -600 favorite. Throughout his Road to UFC and UFC fights, he has averaged 4.75 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. He avoids getting hit because he does a great job holding his opponents on the ground. He is not much of a finisher, which can work, but to advance in this organization, you need to be a finishing threat. His relatively short 65-inch reach means he is always needing to close distance to affect his opponent. Xiao’s 75% takedown defense rate looks good on paper, but the numbers are inflated by an opponent that went 3/19 on Road to UFC. Xiao is explosive and has a puncher’s chance here, but I think the more likely outcome is You via decision.
FIGHT WINNER: SuYoung You
UFC SHANGHAI BEST BET: SuYoung You (-125) vs Xiao Long, Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
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Diyar Nurgozhay (-130) vs Uran Satybaldiev (+110)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-115) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-115)
Light Heavyweight
Diyar Nurgozhay is getting a do-over after his UFC debut which saw him missing weight and losing via submission to Brendson Ribeiro. The Kazakh fighter is now 10-1 as a pro with an 80% finish rate. Six of his wins are via knockout, but versus Ribeiro, he lost via Kimura after landing two takedowns. Uran Satybaldiev debuted on relatively short notice at heavyweight versus Martin Buday. He lost via decision after hitting the scales at just 222.5 pounds. Now that he is in his true weight class, he looks to set the record straight and get back to winning. Overall, he is 9-1 with seven wins via finish. He is a former LFA light heavyweight champion and wins most often through taking the fight to the ground and landing serious ground and pound. This fight projects to be extremely close, but I think Satybaldiev’s five-inch reach advantage and higher level strength of schedule will tell the story.
FIGHT WINNER: Uran Satybaldiev
UFC SHANGHAI BEST BET: Uran Satybaldiev (+110) vs Nurgozhay, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
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UFC SHANGHAI BEST BETS RECAP
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+220) vs. Pavlovich, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.2
- Maheshate/Young Fight Does Not Go the Distance (+105), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.05
- Charles Johnson (+180) vs. Kavanagh, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.8
- Parlay- Zhang/Sterling/Rognzhu (+114), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.14
- Parlay- Sumudaerji/Pereira (+116), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.16
- SuYoung You (-125) vs. Xiao Long, Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
- Uran Satybaldiev (+110) vs. Nurgozhay, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
