UFC Vancouver Predictions:
Vancouver is the scene for this week’s UFC Fight Night. The production is scheduled for 13 bouts, four of which will be fought at 170 pounds or higher. A large 30-foot octagon will be in use, and the Canadian crowd, as passionate as any in the world, will be out in force to support their compatriots.
Prelims drop at 1 p.m. PST with the main slate at 4 p.m. PST.
Last week, digital results lost 2u on solid wrestling talents who were each dominated in their bouts.
Digital results stand 20-25 -1.85u
Reinier de Ritter -195 vs. Brendan Allen +170
Middleweight (185 pounds) main event
Brendan Allen steps in on short notice to take Fluffy Hernandez’s position in this main event.
With a background in wrestling and boxing, Allen took to BJJ at a young age and developed his skills through amateur fighting and eventually the Legacy circuit as an early pro.
Allen’s grappling is his base strength. He is crafty and determined. Once able to clasp onto the opponent, he becomes nasty, enveloping while forcing them against the fence, then ultimately down to the floor for a roll.
Allen’s striking is nominal as evidenced by his negative significant strike differential. In this fight, he’ll actually have the more refined striking game because his opponent is less skilled in the striking aspect of mixed martial arts.
That stated, Allen will be giving away two inches of height and four inches of reach to his adversary, not to mention at least 10 to 15 pounds come fight night, so the size, length, and aggression of de Ritter will more than likely squelch any technical striking advantage Allen may have on the feet.
Reinier de Ritter is now four fights into his UFC career. He enters this main event ranked fourth in the division and off four straight victories, his last a dominating performance over former champion Robert Whittaker.
A decorated world-class grappler with only nominal striking acumen, de Ritter, a black belt in both Judo and BJJ, will be efficient in clasping onto Allen to initiate a grappling competition.
In the clasp and in tight quarters is where de Ritter must take this fight to win it. De Ritter’s massive size will position him to be at a great advantage over Allen once engaged, based on his technical expertise, grappling acumen, size, and world-class Judo/BJJ.
On the feet, de Ritter’s striking is basic. There is no snap on his strikes, only pawing at this evolution of his game. His ability to evade strikes is also in development. De Ritter will need to transition this fight from striking to grappling as soon as possible.
As strong and confident as Allen is about his grappling, he must not allow himself to fall into the challenge of grappling this grappler.
The de Ritter blueprint for success, along with the strategy for dominating this eighth-ranked opponent, is to immediately engage in grappling.
Allen will eventually have to accommodate him. From there, it will be fascinating to view Allen’s BJJ and ground game against de Ritter.
UFC Vancouver Best Bet: Reinier De Ritter -195
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds Under -140 (Lean Over)
Charles Jourdain -195 vs. Davey Grant +165
Bantamweight (135 pounds)
After losing two featherweight fights in 2024, Canadian fighter Charles Jourdain, a mixed martial artist decorated with a black belt in BJJ, moved to the lower bantamweight division to try to resuscitate his career.
In his last outing, he won his inaugural fight in that division against a journeyman athlete and now looks to add to that momentum by competing against a more formidable opponent in England’s Davey Grant.
Jourdain is an inch taller and a decade younger than his English opponent, which provides us a glimpse of why the money has moved toward Jourdain, the local fighter. Jourdain will be the slicker, faster athlete in the cage and one who uses the switch stance to great effect in this battle as he tries to keep the incoming slugger away from him.
Jourdain’s primarily a striking-based athlete who sports a positive significant strike differential. His grappling/wrestling skills, namely his takedown defense, is poor, which may be a significant factor in this fight.
Davey Grant does not fight like a 39-year-old. Grant’s significant strikes per five minutes of fight time overshadow Jourdain’s miniscule ratio. Although Grant is a decade older, his feet, movement, durability, and especially his power are all significant contributors to his success.
This bout sets up to be waged on the feet. With that in mind, I handicap the forceful forward striking pressure and determination of Grant to be more founded and sound than the volume striking and kicking of his Canadian counterpart.
Jourdain’s tactic will fall into the ‘stick and move’ category, as he does not want to grapple or stand toe-to-toe with Grant.
Jourdain opened a -200 chalk then went immediately to pick-em before the market pushed the price on Jourdain back up to -170.
This fight will be as electric as any on the card. Jourdain’s youth and his fighting in front of his fellow Canadians will give him a certain edge. At the same time, Grant’s experience, level of competition faced, wrestling, and dead power will provide him with an advantage.
I handicap Grant’s grappling to be a determining factor in this bout.
UFC Vancouver Best Bet: Davey Grant +165
Total in this fight: 2.5 over -195
Friday morning, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com. Catch all my final releases for UFC FN Vancouver there. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
