UFC Vegas 101 Predictions – Rodrigues vs. Cannonier:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Vegas 102 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
UFC 312: 2-4 (-3.85 Units, -43.26% ROI)
2025: 12-14 (-2.77 Units, -8.6% ROI)
Since 2020: 682-645 (+191.5 Units, 10.99% ROI)
PICK EM HISTORY
Last Week: 8-3-1 (72.73%)
Article History: 288-201-1 (58.9%)
ALL ODDS VIA DRAFTKINGS UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED
Jared “Killa Gorilla” Cannonier (+200) vs Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues (-245)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-105) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-125)
Jared Cannonier is a stalwart of the UFC’s middleweight division. He has fought everyone and has fought for a title. He is 40 years old and is far from his physical prime. But his physical prime was about as good as it gets in the UFC. Even if he has slowed down, he still is bigger, stronger, and faster than most middleweights. Cannonier didn’t transition to professional mixed martial arts full-time until his late 20s, so he only has 25 fights. He is also accustomed to fighting as a main event under the brightest lights. His last five contests have been main events, and he has gotten top billing on a total of seven UFC fight cards. He is 10-8 in the UFC, with six wins coming via knockout. After making a run at the title (losing vs. Israel Adesanya in 2022), Cannonier’s results have noticeably slowed. He won via split decision versus Sean Strickland, then another decision win against Marvin Vettori. But in 2024, he was 0-2 with a KO loss to Nassourdine Imavov and a one-sided decision loss to Caio Borralho. The next generation of fighters has arrived, and Cannonier has not been able to get the results he did 3+ years ago.
Gregory Rodrigues is an all-action fighter who looks to be about 50 but is actually two days short of 33 years old. He is 7-2 in the UFC and on a three-fight win streak. He is a fan favorite because the vast majority of his fights are all-out slug fests where he delivers extremely accurate power punches right down the pipe. Five of his UFC wins have come via KO, including versus Brad Tavares, Chidi Njokuani, and “The Iron Turtle” Jun Yong Park. Despite having a penchant for the flashy KO, Rodrigues is also a bonafide Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and put his grappling skills on full display when he took a short-notice fight versus Christian Leroy Duncan in Manchester last July. He was able to take down his opponent and ride out a decision in a fight most expected to be a slugfest. In most cases, I would perhaps consider that decision win a hindrance to a fighter’s chances at moving up the rankings, but given the situation and the fact that we had never really seen that part of Rodrigues’ game on a big stage, it actually made me more confident in his ability to further rise up the ranks.
Rodrigues is four inches taller than Jared Cannonier at 6’3”, but his 75” reach is actually 2.5 inches less than that of his veteran opponent. That said, on the scales and in the faceoffs during the week, it has been apparent that Gregory Rodrigues is the much bigger man. I expect Rodrigues to continue to develop and avoid taking unnecessary risks in this fight. If he is patient, the finish should come to him, but he cannot take Cannonier lightly. The older opponent still has tons of power and the gas tank to go for 25 minutes. Additionally, Gregory Rodrigues’ head movement has not always been clean, and he is a little bit too hittable at times.
FIGHT WINNER: Gregory Rodrigues
UFC VEGAS 102 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Calvin Kattar (+360) vs Youssef Zalal (-470)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-230) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+175)
Calvin Kattar has been fighting the best of the best in the UFC for essentially the entirety of his UFC career. As a result, his record isn’t the cleanest at 7-6 in the organization. But every fight he takes is an absolute war. The only time he was finished in the cage was due to a brutal knee injury versus Arnold Allen. He took more damage than we have ever seen in a five-round decision loss to Max Holloway in 2021 (445 significant strikes absorbed). We also saw him get taken down eight times in his most recent fight versus Aljamain Sterling. But he didn’t give up and fought to the final bell. We have also seen Kattar recover from disappointing losses before and shut down emerging prospects. Most notably, he ended Giga Chikadze’s seven-fight win streak in his first fight after the brutal loss to Max Holloway. Overall, Kattar is a volume striker whose strike defense metrics will never look right again after absorbing 445 in one fight. He has solid takedown defense versus opponents not named Aljamain Sterling. He has a few KOs, but that is generally not his game. When he wins, it’s because he outworks his opponents over the course of 15 or 25 minutes.
Youssef Zalal is easy to root for as a guy who has already been cut from the UFC once but has come back with a vengeance. His first go in the UFC saw him lose a decision to current featherweight champ Ilia Topuria and another hard-fought loss to Sean Woodson (currently on a seven-fight unbeaten streak). After being sent his walking papers, Zalal stayed hungry and fought on the regional scene in a variety of disciplines and defeated all comers. He returned to the UFC last year and won all three fights via submission. At just 28 years old and with a wealth of experience, Zalal has extremely high potential, and with a few more marquee wins, there could be whispers about him running it back with Ilia Topuria. If he is going to get to the front of the line in a crowded featherweight division, he needs his 2025 to be as productive as his 2024
I think the price on this fight is insane, and Calvin Kattar is much more live than the +360 odds would indicate. Still, I am a believer in Youssef Zalal in both the short and long term. We don’t have a viable way to “bet the spread” in MMA betting (inconsistent judges make betting UFC spreads a crap shoot). Betting big underdogs simply because the price is too long can be a very bad strategy in this current, chalk-heavy era of the UFC.
FIGHT WINNER: Youssef Zalal
UFC VEGAS 102 BEST BET: Pass
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Edmen Shahbazyan (-380) vs Dylan Budka (+300)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+135)
We have reached this stage of the Edmen Shahbazyan cycle many times before, and as such, we should use the predictability of his fight outcomes to our advantage. If you aren’t familiar with the Edmen Shahbazyan cycle, it goes like this: fight a bottom-of-the-barrel opponent → win via highlight finish → fight an opponent with legitimate MMA attributes → lose in horrific fashion → fight a bottom-of-the-barrel opponent… Edmen Shahbazyan is coming off a submission loss to Gerald Meerschaert (after KOing AJ Dobson), and now he gets to fight Dylan Budka (0-2 in the UFC). No offense to Budka, but he has lost to two vastly different (and extremely flawed) fighters in his first two trips to the cage: Cesar Almeida and Andre Petroski. For him to beat Shahbazyan, he needs to avoid the big strikes in round 1, land the takedowns, and hold top position in round two. But I am not going to hold my breath. He failed at this strategy versus a much more limited grappler in Cesar Almeida.
FIGHT WINNER: Edmen Shahbazyan
UFC VEGAS 102 BEST BET: Edmen Shahbazyan to win via KO vs Budka (+135, FanDuel), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.25)
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Ismael Bonfim (-218) vs Nazim Sadykhov (+180)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+124)
Ismael Bonfim is 2-1 in the UFC and 20-4 as a professional mixed martial artist. He won his debut with a second-round flying knee KO victory versus Terrance McKinney. However, he was submitted by Benoit Saint-Denis in his follow up performance. He was able to get the win via decision versus Vinc Pichel in Brazil last May. Including his decision win in Contender Series, Bonfim’s striking metrics jump off the page, landing 5.80 significant strikes while avoiding 70% of those that come back his way. He also has a 76% takedown defense rate, meaning that he is mostly able to stay safe while making sure the fight takes place where he is most comfortable in the matchup. But good numbers aren’t necessarily the full story. Terrance McKinney is one of the worst defensive fighters in the UFC, and his most recent opponent, Pichel, was 41 years old at the time of the fight and had not competed in over two years before the two matched up.
Nazim Sadykhov had a nice 2023, going 2-0-1 after winning a Contender Series fight in late 2022. He had two fights scheduled in 2024 that were canceled due to health issues with his opponents. His UFC wins are against Terrance McKinney as a slight favorite and a cut stoppage versus Evan Elder. He fought to a draw against Viacheslav Borschev, but it is safe to say that 95% of the division would have been finished in the 10-8 round Sadykhov scored in that fight. When it comes to striking, he is nowhere near as technical or accurate as Bonfim, but he is a much more accomplished grappler and has nearly double the takedown success rate of his opponent at 62%.
FIGHT WINNER: Nazim Sadykhov
UFC VEGAS 102 BEST BET: Nazim Sadykhov (+190), Caesars vs Ismael Bonfim, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.9
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Rodolfo Vieira (-285) vs Andre Petroski (+230)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-150) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+160)
Rodolfo Vieira is an old-school Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist fighting in the UFC. He has too many BJJ Gold Medals to list, but he absolutely was the best in the world in that discipline before he moved over to MMA full-time. He is now 10-2 overall and 5-2 in the UFC. His striking is basic, but he is also improving fight to fight. His squeeze is as good as it gets, and if he gets a fight to the mat, it generally ends quickly. This fight sets up nicely for him because Andre Petroski is also an old-school specialist, and his discipline is relentless wrestling. However, unlike Vieira, Petroski rarely seeks the submission or finish of any type. He is a position over submission grappler, which is going to be a fine line to navigate, considering Vieira is a threat from any ground position. Additionally, Vieira lands more takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage (4.18 to 3.91) and also has never been taken down. This is an ideal matchup for Vieira. He does not have to worry about high-level striking, and he is a much more threatening grappler.
FIGHT WINNER: Rodolfo Vieira
UFC VEGAS 102 BEST BET: Rodolfo Vieira Wins via Submission (+150, FanDuel) vs Petroski, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.5
PARLAY: Gregory Rodrigues/Rodolfo Vieira (-110), Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1
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Jose Delgado (-500) vs. Connor Matthews (+380)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-195) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+150)
Jose Delgado is a massive favorite, fighting in the featured prelim bout and making his UFC debut. Debuting as a huge favorite with marquee card placement sometimes works out, but more often than not, fighters get humbled quickly. But I’m not certain Connor Matthews is the guy to stop the hype train. Matthews is 0-1 in the UFC after going 1-1 in Contender Series (both fights went to a decision). His one true UFC fight was a KO loss to Dennis Buzukja who himself is just 1-3 in the UFC. Overall, Connor Mathews is 7-2 as a pro, with five of his wins coming via submission. His pre-UFC strength of schedule is the stuff of legend… for all the wrong reasons. Before Contender Series, he was 5-0 while fighting one opponent with a winning record (2-1). Outside of that, he beat a guy with a 15-97 record, which is maybe more impressive than the 0-7 record Matthews first fought as a pro.
Delgado is just 8-1 as a professional mixed martial artist. At least he fought opponents who were trying to make a career out of MMA on his way up (as opposed to the guys Matthews beat up on who apparently just have some sort of humiliation fetish). He is also a violent finisher, with four wins via knockout and another four via submission. With limited fights, it is hard to draw too many conclusions regarding the fight data in this matchup. Based on raw numbers, it would not be surprising if Jose Delgado is able to land strikes at will and find takedowns if he wants them.
FIGHT WINNER: Jose Delgado
UFC VEGAS 102 BEST BET: Jose Delgado Inside the Distance (-105) vs Matthews, Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1
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Angela Hill (-102) vs Ketlen Souza (-118)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-540) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+360)
Angela Hill is another 40-year-old on this fight card who is perhaps no longer at her peak physically. But like Jared Cannonier, she started in this game with some exemplary attributes. Even if they are diminished, they are still better than most in the division. Hill isn’t overly powerful or speedy, but she has a gas tank and is able to push the pace until the final minute of any fight she is in. Hill is 12-14 in the UFC, with 21 of her fights reaching the judges’ scorecards. Despite being at a relatively advanced age, she is in some of the best form of her career and has won four of her last six bouts. Hill has a tendency to fight in extremely close fights and has won or lost via split decision five times as a pro mixed martial artist.
Ketlen Souza is turning things around after a poor start to her UFC career. She was submitted by Karine Silva in her debut, but she followed that up with a dominant decision win over Marnic Mann. In September 2024, she submitted Yazmin Jauregui as a +380 underdog. Her striking accuracy has been excellent in her last two fights, and her varied skillset makes her a threat to catch Angela Hill wherever the women end up in the cage.
FIGHT WINNER: Ketlen Souza
UFC VEGAS 102 BEST BET: Ketlen Souza (-108, FanDuel) vs Hill, Risk 1.08 Units to Win 1
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Rafael Estevam (-485) vs Jesus Aguilar (+370)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-120) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-110)
Rafael Estevan is 12-0 as a pro and 1-0 in the UFC after defeating Charles Johnson in his 2023 UFC debut. Jesus Aguilar is 11-2 professionally and 3-1 in the UFC. His loss came to Tatsuro Taira in his debut, but he recovered with three wins, including two via finish. That said, his strength of schedule has been fairly weak after Taira. Additionally, Estevam had trouble making the flyweight limit last go around, but after significant time off, he was able to hit the scale without much drama on Friday. I think Estevam has a higher ceiling, but this line feels a bit heavy.
FIGHT WINNER: Rafael Estevam
UFC VEGAS 102 BEST BET: Pass
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Gabriel Bonfim (-218) vs Khaos Williams (+180)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+130)
Gabriel Bonfim has one loss in his career versus Nicolas Dalby. In that fight, he came out guns blazing, but ultimately, the veteran was able to turn the tables in the second round and find the finish. This fight shouldn’t be similar to the Dalby match as a whole because Khaos Williams is not as likely to initiate the clinch. However, if Bonfim didn’t learn from that result, he will be in trouble. He does not have natural power. Overexerting himself to try to force the finish will cause him to gas once again. Additionally, he is 3-1 in the UFC, but I’m not impressed with his three wins against Mounir Lazzez, Trevin Giles, and Ange Loosa, as none of those men have winning records in the UFC.
Khaos Williams is a true agent of chaos in the cage. He is 6-2 in the UFC, with a loss to Michel Pereira via decision and a split decision loss to Randy Brown. Four of his UFC wins have come via knockout and he himself has never finished inside the distance. Statistically, he lags behind Bonfim in the striking metrics. But I favor his strength of schedule considerably. He is also going to have finishing ability with his hands until the fight’s final moments. Bonfim is the submission threat, but to this day, the only UFC opponent who has been able to take down Khaos Williams is Michel Perreira. The fact that Michel Perreira needed to find takedowns to get the decision win tells you a lot about what type of threat Williams is on the feet.
FIGHT WINNER: Khaos Williams
UFC VEGAS 102 BEST BET: Khaos Williams (+185, Caesars) vs Gabriel Bonfim, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.85
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Vince Morales (+120) vs Elijah Smith (-142)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-330) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+240)
Vince Morales has fought in the UFC nine times over the course of two stints in the organization. Unfortunately, he is 3-6 on the roster and lost his return flight to Taylor Lapilus via decision. For his career, he has a negative strike differential and gets taken down far more often than you would like to see out of an MMA veteran. Twenty-two-year-old Elijah Smith is making his debut after a straightforward decision win in Contender Series in September. He is 7-1 as a pro and more experienced than his eight-fight ledger would indicate. His dad is a former fighter who went 0-1 in the UFC and managed to make the cast of two separate seasons of The Ultimate Fighter. To me, this feels like a “see you later’ fight for the veteran Morales as he gets booted from the organization once again, but the fact these combatants are ex-training partners adds an additional wrinkle.
FIGHT WINNER: Elijah Smith
UFC VEGAS 102 BEST BET: Elijah Smith (-142) vs Morales, Risk 1.42 Units to Win 1
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Valter Walker (-305) vs Don’Tale Mayes (+245)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)
This is the worst type of heavyweight fight because it likely will go to a very boring decision. We have seen Don’Tale Mayes in the Octagon ten times, and he has produced a ridiculous amount of forgettable fights. He has four victories and none of those opponents are still in the division. On the other hand, Valter Walker is 1-1 in the UFC with a loss to Lukasz Brzeski (1-5 in the UFC). His win came against Junior Tafa, who is as terrible as his older brother Justin (KO’d by debuting Tallison Teixeira last Saturday). Walker has a great shot to get this fight to the ground, and if he succeeds, I don’t think Mayes will be able to do anything to get back up. That being said, I think Mayes will have a striking advantage if he can weaponize his massive 81-inch reach.
FIGHT WINNER: Valter Walker
UFC VEGAS 102 BEST BET: Pass
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Julia Avila (+500) vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-700)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-345) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+250)
Julia Avila has not fought since 2023. She is returning to the octagon versus a surging volume striker in Jacqueline Cavalcanti. Cavalcanti is the nine-year younger fighter and 3-0 in the UFC. Her last two victories have come via split decision. Ultimately, her greatest asset is her ridiculous striking defense rate, 72%, which is among the best I have ever seen for a fighter with 45 minutes+ of cage time. She lacks power completely so staying clean is how she gets her hand raised because she doesn’t do damage with her strikes. Avila has had a rather cursed career. She won her debut in 2019 but has only fought four times since due to a number of reasons ranging from COVID to injuries to both her and her opponents. In her last bout, she was a favorite versus Miesha Tate and was submitted in the third round.
FIGHT WINNER: Jacqueline Cavalcanti
UFC VEGAS 102 BEST BET: Pass
UFC VEGAS 102 BEST BETS RECAP
– Edmen Shahbazyan to win via KO vs Budka (+135, FanDuel), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.25
– Nazim Sadykhov (+190), Caesars vs Ismael Bonfim, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.9
– Rodolfo Vieira Win via Submission (+150, FanDuel) vs Petroski, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.5
– PARLAY: Gregory Rodrigues/Rodolfo Vieira (-110), Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1
– Jose Delgado Inside the Distance (-105) vs Matthews, Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1
– Ketlen Souza (-108, FanDuel) vs Hill, Risk 1.08 Units to Win 1
– Khaos Williams (+185, Caesars) vs Gabriel Bonfim, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.85
– Elijah Smith (-142) vs Morales, Risk 1.42 Units to Win 1
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