UFC Vegas 103 Predictions – Kape vs. Almabayev:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Vegas 103 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 1-5 (-3.58 Units, -59.67% ROI)
2025: 17-23 (-5.28 Units, -1.27% ROI)
Since 2020: 687-654 (+188.99 Units, 10.84% ROI)
PICK EM HISTORY
Last Week: 8-4 (66.67%)
2025: 48-25-1 (65.75%)
Article History: 304-209-1 (59.26%)
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Manel “Starboy” Kape (-218) vs Asu “Zulfikar” Almabayev (+180)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+130)
Manel Kape has worked his way onto the shortlist for a UFC flyweight title shot. He is 5-3 in the UFC but 5-1 in his last six fights, with the only loss coming via decision vs Muhammad Mokaev. He had a highlight KO victory in his last fight versus Bruno Silva. Additionally, prior to the UFC, he had a 6-3 record in RIZIN and knocked out recent UFC title challenger Kai Asakura, winning the promotion’s Bantamweight championship. Additionally, his losses in the UFC are excusable. Besides the undefeated Mokaev, he lost his UFC debut via decision to current flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja. He also lost via split decision to Matheus Nicolau, who was beginning a four-fight winning streak. Kape separates himself from the average fighters in the UFC division because he has power and can land one-punch KOs. He also has excellent takedown defense, avoiding 77% of his opponents’ attempts, including stopping all sive attempts by Bruno Silva and five of eight attempts by Mohammed Mokaev.
Asu Almabayev is a relatively fresh face in a flyweight division in desperate need of fresh championship matchups. Alexandre Pantoja has already beaten five of the fighters in the top seven. And the two he hasn’t faced, Amir Albazi and Tatsuro Taira are coming off of losses. Almabayev is currently ranked #8 and 4-0 in the UFC after making his debut in late 2023. He has not fought the tip of the spear and has been the favorite in all of his UFC fights. As a pro, he is 21-2 and has not lost since 2017 (one loss was vs Tagir Ulanbekov, 5-1 in the UFC). Outside of the loss to Ulanbekov, Almabayev defeated UFC veteran Zach Makovsky via split decision in Brave CF in 2022. His strength of schedule leaves a lot to be desired, given his placement on this card.
It is yet to be seen how Almabayev will react to the bright lights of a UFC main event. Will he have the gas tank to employ his wrestling-heavy style for five rounds? If he can’t get Kape to the mat at will, can he engage in the clinch? And will he even be able to close the distance to initiate grappling? His striking metrics are absurd in a very strange way. He is overall fairly accurate, landing 56% of his significant strikes attempted, but he has never landed a jab in 53 minutes in the UFC cage. On the other hand, Kape outstrikes virtually everyone and will have a height and reach advantage. All that being said, Almabayev has been absolutely dominant versus the competition he has faced. He has won nine of his 10 completed rounds in the UFC and is willing to chain takedowns together even late in fights. I think Kape is a deserving favorite due to his pedigree, but I do not think his five UFC wins have come versus top-level competition, and I think this price is too high.
FIGHT WINNER: Asu Almabayev
UFC VEGAS 103 BEST BET: Asu Almabayev (+190, BetOnline) vs Kape, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.9
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Cody Brundage (-105) vs Julian Marquez (-115)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+130) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-166)
This is one of the worst co-main events (on paper) in recent history. Cody Brundage has not always employed great fight IQ, and his best victories in the octagon have been of the morale variety. He is 4-5 with one no-contest in the UFC and has one “true” win in his last four fights, a KO via slam versus Zach Reese. He had a nice performance against Bo Nickal at UFC 300 if making it until the fourth minute of the second round counts as nice. He has solid power striking metrics and a wrestling background, which makes for some solid ingredients in a fighter’s makeup. However, his decision-making has been less than ideal, and he hasn’t always stuck to his path to victory in matchups that he should win.
Julian Marquez is one fighter with seemingly two different UFC careers. In one, he was a finishing machine and quickly became a fan favorite. In his second, more recent career, he can’t take a punch and is getting knocked out far too often. He is 3-4 in the UFC and has been KO’d three times in a row dating back to 2022. He is very aggressive and is happy to swing big, but his best path to success in his UFC career has been finding the submission. If Brundage stands and swings, he can probably hurt Julian Marquez, but if Brundage tries to wrestle, he may find himself in trouble.
FIGHT WINNER: Cody Brundage
UFC VEGAS 103 BEST BET: Pass
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Nasrat Haqparast (+215) vs Esteban Ribovics (-265)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-215) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+165)
Nasrat Haqparast has 13 UFC fights and is just 29 years old. He is 9-4 in the organization and 17-5 overall. He has had a troubled injury history and has had to pull out of multiple fights, including missing most of 2023. But he is currently on a four-fight win streak and has not lost since going to a decision vs King Green. He is mostly a stand-up fighter who throws a ton of striking volume. He has landed 90+ significant strikes in six of his UFC fights. He also has a solid significant strike defense rate of 62%. He has been knocked out once back in 2020 vs Drew Dober, but besides that he has been fairly durable while actually in the cage. He is a southpaw with a long 72” reach for his 5”10” lightweight frame.
Esteban Ribovics is on a three-fight win streak after losing his UFC debut to Loik Radzhabov. Most recently, he won a split decision versus Daniel Zellhuber as a +160 underdog at the UFC Noche fight card last September. Like Haqparast, he prefers to fight in the upright position and lands a ton of volume, 7.53 significant strikes per minute. Zellhuber is by far his best victory, and I think he may be a bit overrated in this line. I think Haqparast has faced fighters with similar mentalities to Ribovics. The kicking game for Ribovics could be the difference here, as Haqparast generally prefers to box and do his work with his hands.
FIGHT WINNER: Nasrat Haqparast
UFC VEGAS 103 BEST BET: Nasrat Haqparast (+220, Bovada) vs Esteban Ribovics, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.2 Units
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William Gomis (-225) vs Hyder Amil (+185)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-238) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+180)
William Gomis is what I considered an “anti” fighter. He doesn’t necessarily find wins by imposing his will. Instead, he does everything he can to hinder his opponent’s game plan. He has insane defense, only getting hit with 1.6 significant strikes per minute and avoiding 71% of what his opponents throw. Additionally, his takedown defense rate is solid at 70%. He uses his long 6’ featherweight frame to keep the distance with his long jab and kicks. In four UFC fights (3 have gone the distance), he has never eaten more than 29 significant strikes in a bout. These are truly remarkable statistics, and it is hard to lose a fight when you don’t get hit or taken to the ground. That said, his offensive metrics are lacking, landing just 2.69 significant strikes per minute and less than one takedown per 15 minutes in the cage. It is no surprise that half of his four UFC victories have come via split decision. Betting on Gomis generally means you are hoping to end up on the right side of a very close scorecard.
Hyder Amil’s nickname is Hurricane, and the nickname is quite fitting. He is 2-0 in the UFC with two knockout victories. When including the stats from his contender series victory, he lands 6.31 significant strikes per minute at 57% accuracy rate. He has not fought elite UFC competition and has made his opponents look like amateurs, including his dismantling of Fernie Garcia, a fight in which he was a +165 underdog. I fully expect him to land the bigger strikes in this fight by solving Gomis’ defensive riddle through pure volume and pace. He is currently 10-0 as a professional fighter. I don’t think this is the matchup where he loses the unbeaten streak.
FIGHT WINNER: Hyder Amil
UFC VEGAS 103 BEST BET: Hyder Amil (+195, Bovada) vs William Gomis, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.95
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Danny Barlow (-278) vs Sam Patterson (+225)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-115) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-115)
Danny Barlow is an exciting 9-0 prospect who is 2-0 in the UFC. His debut was a slugfest versus Josh Quinlan, in which he won via third-round knockout. He followed that up with a competitive split decision victory over Nikolay Veretennikov. In that fight, Veretennikov was the fresher fighter late in the contest, taking the third round. Exciting doesn’t always mean good, and this may be one of those cases. It took 94 significant strikes before Barlow landed the finishing blow versus Quinlan (1-3 in the UFC). His accuracy rate is right at 50% despite not facing high-level competition.
Sam Patterson is a developing fighter with some pronounced strengths and perhaps more glaring weaknesses. He is 12-2-1 as a pro fighter and 2-1 in the UFC. He lost his debut when he ate a massive counter left from Yanal Ashmouz. He followed that up with relatively clean first-round submission finishes versus two fighters who have a combined 1-5 UFC record. He has bad head movement and fights with his chin exposed, a terrible habit for a 6’3” welterweight. However, he has landed all four of the takedowns he has attempted in both Contender Series and the UFC. In three of those four fights, he was able to find the submission finish. Expect something to give in this fight because Barlow has a 100% takedown defense rate versus the three attempts he has faced in the octagon.
FIGHT WINNER: Danny Barlow
UFC VEGAS 103 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See below
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Austen Lane (+400) vs Mario Pinto (-535)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-115) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-115)
Austen Lane has some of the worst striking defense in the UFC’s heavyweight division—a very dangerous weakness to have versus the heaviest hitters in the world. Austen Lane is 1-2, 1 NC in the UFC. I am honestly surprised he has been able to hold onto his career this long. He was knocked out in his first two completed UFC fights. The script looked to be the same as he entered the octagon as a massive underdog versus Robelis Despaigne. But Despaigne did not respect the takedown threat and spent most of the fight on his back. Lane was able to secure his first UFC victory via decision. Despaigne still landed 67% of his significant strike attempts, but every time he threw big, he ended up in a bad position.
Mario Pinto is making his UFC debut with a 9-0 professional record. The Portuguese 26-year-old has six finishes and won via first-round KO as a -700 favorite on the Contender Series last October. His pre-UFC strength of schedule wasn’t strong, but being young and taking care of business counts for something. Additionally, he is on the lighter side for the division, weighing in at 246 pounds on Friday (three pounds lighter than Lane). We recently saw a young heavyweight obliterate an aging jobber on the UFC Melbourne card. I think we see the same here.
FIGHT WINNER: Mario Pinto
UFC VEGAS 103 BEST BET: Parlay Piece: See Below
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Ricardo Ramos (+310) vs Chepe Mariscal (-395)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+105) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-135)
Ricardo Ramos has been all over the map when it comes to fight quality over the course of his 13-fight UFC career. He has won via spinning back elbow KO twice and has also been submitted via guillotine twice, which is quite embarrassing for a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. He fights in a ton of exciting fights, which is why the 29-year-old has been in the organization since 2017. He does not have many “high-level wins” and generally does not fight against ranked opposition. He is a company man, an entertainer. Despite the striking highlights, he is not sound when it comes to bread-and-butter boxing. He has a high takedown accuracy rate and has the skills to end the fight on the ground, but that may not be easy in this matchup.
Chepe Mariscal was a late addition to a UFC card in June 2023, and the journeyman mixed martial artist has not wasted his opportunity. He is 4-0 in the organization with three of those victories coming as an underdog. Prior to joining UFC, he had six losses. However, five of those losses came to opponents who ultimately made it onto the UFC roster. He fights out of Elevation Fight Team, meaning he has access to high-level coaching and training partners. His fight IQ is extremely high. He knows what to do in key moments of fights that help him get his hand raised.
FIGHT WINNER: Chepe Mariscal
UFC VEGAS 103 BEST BET: Parlay: Chepe Mariscal/Mario Pinto/Danny Barlow (+101), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.01
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Lucas Almeida (+205) vs Danny Silva (-250)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-130)
Lucas Almeida has had a lukewarm UFC career thus far. He is 2-2 in the organization but has been the underdog in all four fights. Heading into this fight he did not do much to inspire confidence as he missed weight by two pounds. He wants to strike but does not have overwhelming power or good striking defense. Danny Silva is 1-0 in the UFC after defeating Josh Culibao as a +150 underdog (and missing the featherweight limit of 146 lbs by 2.5 pounds.). In that fight, he was able to get his hand raised via split decision due to a very solid ground control game. That being said, he was hit a ton in his Contender Series victory over Angel Pacheco, who landed 197(!) significant strikes. In both of Lucas Almeida’s UFC wins he was able to land 70+ significant strikes and is the type of rangy striker who can score on an exposed chin.
FIGHT WINNER: Danny Silva
UFC VEGAS 103 BEST BET: Pass
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Andrea Lee (+164) vs JJ Aldrich (-198)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-600) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+390)
Both of these female flyweights are far from their prime in the UFC. Andrea Lee is 5-8 in the organization and on a five-fight losing streak (all 8 of her UFC losses have gone to the scorecards). I cannot imagine the 36 year old will retain her position on the UFC roster if she loses this fight. JJ Aldrich is also a veteran who has fallen on hard times but not quite as hard as Lee. Aldrich is 9-6 in the UFC and lost her last fight as a short underdog versus Veronica Hardy. She is mostly a stand-up striker despite having a -0.5 significant strike differential per minute over the course of her career. She has okay takedown defense with a 66% rate. I expect Lee to try to find the takedown, and if she does, she has a path to victory through control. The judges may have a tough time making sense of this fight because I do not see either woman imposing their will. Andrea Lee has been involved in four split decisions in the UFC, and Aldrich has been involved in two. That, coupled with slight finish equity, has me interested in taking this fight to be won any way but unanimously.
FIGHT WINNER: JJ Aldrich
UFC VEGAS 103 BEST BET: Lee/Aldrich Fight Is Not Won Via Unanimous Decision (+120), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.2 Units
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Charles Johnson (-135) vs Ramazan Temirov (+114)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-245) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+185)
Charles Johnson elevated his level in 2024. Apparently, the UFC brass didn’t notice or care. He won four fights in a calendar year, three as an underdog, and one via KO vs top flyweight prospect Joshua Van. He is 6-4 in the UFC, but his stock is at an all-time high. If his 2025 looks anything like his 2024, he will be on the shortlist for a title shot. He is very well-rounded and above average in all aspects outside of takedown accuracy, but he generally isn’t pursuing takedowns as part of his primary game plan.
Ramazan Temirov is 1-0 in the UFC, with the victory coming via a brutal KO of CJ Vergara. He is 18-2 as a professional. Before jumping to the UFC he was 2-0 in RIZIN with two knockout victories. He has knocked out six opponents in a row, but even his RIZIN competition wasn’t impressive. He is dangerous and will be in Charles Johnson’s face from the opening bell. Johnson will be ready for this attack and will surprise Temirov with his willingness to scrap and ability to land clean. This fight opened with Temirov as a slight favorite, but the odds have flipped, and I agree with the move.
FIGHT WINNER: Charles Johnson
UFC VEGAS 103 BEST BET: Charles Johnson (-135) vs Temirov, Risk 1.35 Units to Win 1
UFC VEGAS 103 BEST BEST BETS RECAP
– Asu Almabayev (+190, BetOnline) vs. Kape, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.9
– Nasrat Haqparast (+220, Bovada) vs. Esteban Ribovics, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.2 Units
– Hyder Amil (+195, Bovada) vs. William Gomis, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.95
– Parlay: Chepe Mariscal/Mario Pinto/Danny Barlow (+101), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.01
– Lee/Aldrich Fight Is Not Won Via Unanimous Decision (+120), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.2 Units
– Charles Johnson (-135), vs. Temirov, Risk 1.35 Units to Win 1
