UFC Vegas 104 Predictions:
This Saturday’s UFC Vegas 104 takes place at the UFC’s APEX facility, where the smaller 25-foot octagon is in use, and few fans will be in attendance. Preliminary action begins at 1 p.m. PT, with the main card dropping at 4 p.m. PT.
There are 14 scheduled bouts for this event, with the preliminary action kicking off at 1 p.m. PT. Four big boy fights—matchups featuring welterweight fighters or larger— populate the card. The mix of countries includes (besides the usual Brazil, Russia, US) Congo, Venezuela, South Korea, and Ecuador, just to name a few.
Favorites, you ask?
Why yes, this year they’re 51-34-5 or 56.6%, which is 14+ points lower than what we experienced last year! That’s a big regression, but it is early…let’s see if this regression is sustainable as investing in underdogs is becoming fun/profitable again.
Digital results 2025: 5-4 +1.1u
Marvin Vettori -155 vs. Roman Dolidze +125
Middleweight (185 pounds) main event
Eleventh-ranked Dolidze arrives at this rematch without major fight decorations. However, his mixed martial arts arsenal is forged from Sambo and BJJ, which he developed as a youth. Dolidze also won a Grappling FILA world championship.
Dolidze is aggressive and forward-pressing in attack. He is strong, determined, durable and experienced. His cardio, once a concern, has evolved, as witnessed by his five-round decision loss to top-ranked Nassourdine Imavov last February.
Five years the older fighter at thirty-six, Doilidze remained active, as this will be his third fight in eight months as well. He takes this rematch after coming off of two straight wins.
Vettori, 31, is the eighth-ranked middleweight. He has dominated the division’s masses but struggles when he competes against the elite middleweights, where his forceful, bullying tactics and singularly dimensioned attack are less effective.
Once this fight begins, we’ll see much of what we saw in the first fight between these two, except this competition will/should last 25 minutes, as opposed to 15, as this is a main event fight.
Should a finish arise, Vettori could find a way to ground and pound the Georgian late in this fight should Dolidze struggle with his old foe, cardio.
I regard these two athletes as being in different hierarchies of the middleweight division. Vettori is elite, and Dolidze is not at that level.
This fight is lined 4.5 Rds over -215, so if it’s fireworks, finishes, and a frenetic pace you fancy, then it may be best to watch the earlier fights on this card.
UFC Vegas 104 Best Bet: Vettori -155
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -195 vs. Chidi Njokuani +170
Welterweight co-main event
Fireworks!
While grappling, wrestling, and clenching may best define what we expect from the main event, the co-main event should award us with two fighters who are characterized by their pure power striking, forceful forward aggression, and flamboyant fighting styles.
Chidi is a lightning-fast, explosive power striker who is trained in kickboxing and Muay Thai and has earned a black belt in BJJ. For up to six minutes of competition time, Njokuani exhibits dynamic abilities. However, after six minutes, his effectiveness can wane.
Chidi owns a four-inch reach advantage and will sport a seven-inch reach advantage in this fight, both great advantages in a fight that remains standing, which is expected in this war.
Chidi’s height, reach and straight-down-the-middle striking will provide certain leverage over Elezeu dos Santos, especially early in the fight, when he is firing fresh.
The Brazilian Zaleski dos Santos’ approach revolves around staying out of Njokuani’s range early in this fight. How he executes this will be fascinating to determine. Does he try to play the stand-up game long enough to forcefully enter the pocket on the striker, or will he come out blitzing from the start and try to engage this monster from inside the pocket when he is fresh?
A flamboyant Capoeira striker with Muay Thai accents, Elezeu displays speed, precision, and power with his stand-up. It’s this matchup of striking specialties that has fight fans yearning to understand the result of this clash of warrior styles.
This fight sets up to be favorable for Njokuani because Zaleski dos Santos must come forward to make this fight either striking or grappling.
However, should the Brazilian find inside access to his adversary early in this fight, he’ll be in position to sap the slugger of his snap by forcing him to defend.
It’s at this juncture of the fight that we discover if Elezeu can maintain inside position and wage war or if Chidi is going to ‘bang-bang’ him from range.
Total in this fight is 1.5 Rds. Over -190
This is a fight card that I refer to as a ‘due diligence’ card in that there are many debut fighters as well: athletes with less than three UFC performances under their belts. We have one fight where a journeyman athlete is dropping two weight divisions to battle a debuting fighter!
Because of the obscurity of these athletes and my lack of data on them, I choose to use these fights to learn and often refrain from wagering upon them. This is that card!
Stephanie Luciano -230 vs. Sam Hughes +200Â
Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)
Brazilian Luciano is tall, young, and enters her sophomore fight in the UFC after defeating a woman that she fought to a draw on the Dana White Contender Series. She’s a striker.
Sam Hughes enters her ninth UFC fight 4-5. She comes to the cage with fierce determination, tremendous cardio, and a founded grappling/wrestling base.
Hughes opened +275, so others are seeing what I am reporting on: Hughes is in a great position to compete on Saturday.
UFC Vegas 104: Hughes +200 .5u
The ‘Bout Business Podcast at GambLou.com is where one finds my releases for each week’s UFC event. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights.
