UFC Vegas 105 Predictions – Murphy vs. Emmett:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Vegas 105 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 4-2 (+2.9 Units, 48.01% ROI)
2025: 30-38 (-4.39 Units, -5.69% ROI)
Since 2020: 700-669 (+189.88 Units, 10.89% ROI)
PICK’EM HISTORY
Last Week:10-2 (83.33%)
2025: 86-44-1 (66.15%)
Article History: 342-288-1 (60%)
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Josh “CC0” Emmett (+250) vs Lerone “The Miracle” Murphy (-310)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+135)
Featherweight
Josh Emmett would be a first ballot “hall of very good” selection if such a distinction actually existed. Unfortunately, it does not. That doesn’t mean he hasn’t consistently proven to be one of the best fighters in the division. His toughness is legendary, and he has the type of power that cannot be taught. Inside the cage, he looks bigger than his listed 5’6” and 70”, probably because he is thicker than a fire hydrant and he is shredded with the physique of a miniature bodybuilder. At 19-4, he has put together a hell of a career, especially considering in the last six years, his only two losses are against Ilia Topuria and Yair Rodriguez. He has beaten veterans and up and comers alike such as Bryce Mitchell, Calvin Kattar, Dan Ige, Shane Burgos, and Michael Johnson. Four of his ten UFC victories have come via knockout, including his last fight in December 2023. For his career, his knockdown ratio is a ridiculous 12:2! Emmett is now 40 years old, and he has had quite a break from the fight game. Taking this fight is a testament to the type of competitor he is and the belief he has that he can still make a run at a title, especially considering Ilia Topuria has vacated the division.
Lerone Murphy could be used to illustrate a mixed martial arts technique book. He is very smart in the cage, has crisp striking and excellent footwork, which makes him extremely difficult to hit. He is 15-0-1 as a professional fighter and 7-0-1 in the UFC. His last two fights have been decision victories versus dangerous veterans Edson Barboza and Dan Ige. He has two knockout victories in the organization versus the always defensively loose Ricardo Ramos and an over-the-hill Makwan Amirkhani. He probably could have more finishes at this level if he was not so responsible defensively. He avoids 60% of his opponent’s total significant strike attempts, and impressively has a 75% total head strike defense rate, meaning finding the most important target for his opponents is nearly impossible.
Josh Emmett is also good defensively, avoiding 61% of his opponent’s attempts, but he eats nearly two more strikes per minute than Murphy. He spends much more time in his opponent’s striking range, trying to use his explosiveness to beat his competition to the punch. Murphy is the vastly more accurate striker, landing 54% compared to Emmett’s 36%. He is also more likely to mix up grappling, landing nearly two takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. Neither guy is all that impressive at avoiding the takedown. However, in this matchup, Emmett’s lack of defense is the liability. The age, the time off, and the fact that Lerone Murphy is simply going to land more volume make it hard for me to back the more veteran fighter
FIGHT WINNER: Lerone Murphy
UFC VEGAS 105 BEST BET: Lerone Murphy Wins Via Decision (+100, FanDuel), vs. Emmett, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
–
Joanderson Brito (-225) vs Pat Sabatini (+185)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+120)
Featherweight
Joanderson Brito has been on my freak list of the UFC’s athletic outliers since he knocked out Andre Fili in his second UFC fight. He is 5-2 in the organization, with both coming on the judges’ scorecards. He lost his UFC debut to Bill Algeo, which is fine. That happens to fighters jumping up in this organization quite frequently. However, he lost his last fight in September to William Gomis, which was really disappointing. It was a split decision loss, and he was not able to solve the defensive puzzle that William Gomis presents. As an anti-fighter, aka someone who is more interested in stopping his opponent’s gameplan than enacting his own, Gomis is tough. I don’t think he did enough damage to win, but he did land the most significant strikes. That being said, Brito has won via finish in spectacular fashion in all five of his victories. He has a wide variety of submissions, and his brute strength is enough to snap limbs with ease. He also has power in his hands and legs, as evidenced by his leg kick KO vs Jack Shore, in which he literally broke Shore’s skin and chipped the bone. Like most muscle-bound fighters, he doesn’t throw the most volume, and his defense has some legitimate holes, although most opponents pay the price when attempting to close the distance.
Pat Sabatini is a powerful grappler who is 6-2 in the UFC. His most recent two finishes have come via submission. His grappling gives him confidence, and he competes in BJJ tournaments, beating tough opponents regularly. Technically, he is much more advanced than Brito. Most of the time, that is good enough to beat a physically stronger opponent. On the feet, Sabatini is in real trouble. He lands less than two significant strikes per minute, and his significant strike defense rate is sub-50 %. However, if Brito invites grappling exchanges, he is feeding right into Sabatini’s gameplan.
FIGHT WINNER: Joanderson Brito
UFC VEGAS 105 BEST BET: Joanderson Brito to Win Inside the Distance vs Sabatini (-125), Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
–
Cortavious Romious (+114) vs ChangHo Lee (-135)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)
Bantamweight (Catchweight 139)
Cortavious Romious is already making headlines ahead of this fight card for all the wrong reasons. After going 1-1 in Contender Series, then losing his debut as a -225 favorite, Romious weighed in on Friday at 139 pounds, three pounds above the contracted limit of 136. He was also on the scale early, indicating he didn’t even try to make weight. This fight is virtually untouchable given these circumstances. I don’t think Romious is overly skilled, I don’t think he is physically impressive, and I now have to worry about his health and/or commitment to the sport. ChangHo Lee is a solid fighter trying to build a career in the UFC. Now, he is in a situation where he has much more to lose than to gain. There is potential for this to be a boring fight, there is potential that he could lose, and there is potential that he could get embarrassed. The only way for him to really build from this experience is by finding a devastating finish that the UFC can use in his highlight packages for years to come. Given that his UFC debut was a split decision win versus another unproven fighter, I am not optimistic he will get back to the flurry of finishes he executed as he built towards the UFC.
FIGHT WINNER: ChangHo Lee
UFC VEGAS 105 BEST BET: Pass
–
Gerald Meerschaert (+142) vs Brad Tavares (-170)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+150)
Middleweight
Gerald Meerschaert is one of the most accomplished grapplers in UFC history. No opponent can ever take that from him. But many opponents have been able to take Meerschaert’s consciousness because he is still a rudimentary striker. He is 12-10 in the UFC with 11 wins via submission and one via KO back in 2017. His losses are also usually exciting. He has been knocked out four times and submitted twice. Statistically, his striking numbers are not total outliers in the bad direction. They are simply below average. However, the frequency with which opponents have been able to shut his lights with a right hand is a statistical outlier.
Like Gerald Meerschaert, Brad Tavares is 37 years old. He, too, has been in the UFC for quite some time and has given and received his fair share of highlights. He is just 1-4 in his last five fights dating back to 2022. However, the strength of schedule is pretty unimpeachable. Tavares is a decision fighter, with a 15-10 record in the UFC. 13 victories via decision, two via KO (the most recent coming in 2018). He has been knocked out in five of his losses, with the rest coming on the judges’ scorecards. Surprisingly, his striking metrics are not all that different than what Gerald Meerschaert shows regarding striking accuracy and defense, the difference being that Tavares is almost exclusively in standup fights, whereas Meerschaert is always looking to get the fight to the ground. Tavares has also fought superior competition, going to decisions versus Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya.
Meerschaert fights trend towards finishes. Tavares fights a trend towards relatively boring decisions. Additionally, both of these fighters are up there in age. The Under is attractive in this fight because of Meerschaert’s kill-or-be-killed mentality, but Tavares has been in those types of fights numerous times before and has managed to find a way to the final bell, win or lose.
FIGHT WINNER: Brad Tavares
UFC VEGAS 105 BEST BET: Pass
–
Luis Gurule (-258) vs Ode Osborne (+210)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-125) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-105)
Flyweight
Luis Gurule is making his UFC debut after a split decision win in Contender Series. He was 2-0 in LFA early in his career, then took out some middling competition in Fury. He is 10-0 as a pro with five fights won via knockout and one via decision. As his level of competition has increased, his ability to find finishes has decreased. Ode Osborne is a long-time UFC veteran who is 12-8 as a pro and 4-6 in his last ten fights (all in the UFC). He has lost three fights in a row and four of his last five, with the one win being a split decision versus Charles Johnson. Osborne struggles versus grapplers, and lucky for him, that is usually not Gurule’s MO. Sometimes, young fighters take the path of least resistance, especially when it is as clear as it is when facing Ode Osborne. Osborne has KO’d legitimate UFC opponents, and the 33-year-old in desperate need of a win should not be taken lightly.
FIGHT WINNER: Ode Osborne
UFC VEGAS 105 BEST BET: Pass
–
Robert Valentin (+245) vs Torrez Finney (-305)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)
Middleweight
Robert Valentin was the runner-up in the most recent middleweight tournament on The Ultimate Fighter. He was a slight favorite in that bout and was finished via ground and pound in round two. Now he has a chance to change the narrative against another fighter who spent a lot of time fighting in promotions adjacent to the UFC. Torrez Finney is a 10-0 fighter who has strangely fought in Contender Series three times (all three fights were wins). He won his first fight in the feeder promotion via submission, but Dana White and the UFC brass didn’t think he was ready to make the jump to the big show. He came back and won via decision, and again Dana White et al. didn’t think he was ready, specifically with his aggression and physical conditioning, to make it to the next level. That fight was in August 2024. He came back in October 2024 and won via first-round ground and pound and finally earned his contract. There is no substitute for fighting under the bright lights on a nationally televised UFC fight card, but the pressure Finney faced going back to the Apex to fight in Contender Series definitely counts for something. Additionally, I believe he is the first and only fighter to get the triple crown for finishes on Contender Series (win via KO, submission, and decision). In his three Contender Series fights, Finney landed an average of 10.04 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage, which is an unsustainable number. I am not certain that Valentin will be able to answer the constant and early pressure. If the fight makes it to a third round, anything is possible, but I have my doubts about Valentin surviving that long.
FIGHT WINNER: Torrez Finney
UFC VEGAS 105 BEST BET: Torrez Finney to WIn In Round 1 or 2 (+150) vs Valentin (Risk 1 Unit to WIn 1.5)
–
Dione Barbosa (-1000 vs Diana Belbita (+650)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+105) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-135)
Women’s Flyweight
Dione Barbosa is 7-3 as a pro and 1-1 in the UFC. She won a decision versus Ernesta Kareckaite but followed that up with a decision loss as a big underdog versus Miranda Maverick. Prior to the UFC, she fought solid competition, defeating Karine Silva in her third pro fight, and then losing to Josiane Nunes (UFC Women’s Bantamweight) and Jena Bishop (PFL/Bellator veteran). She wants to grapple, and as such, her offensive striking statistics are fairly lackluster in her short UFC career. However, she has been solid defensively every time she has entered the cage. Diana Belbita is 2-5 in the UFC. Both opponents she defeated are long gone from the organization. Additionally, some of the opponents who beat her have also been ousted from the UFC, so her strength of schedule is terrible. This fight is favored not to go the distance because Belbita is sloppy defensively, especially when it comes to defending submissions. That said, I do not consider Barbosa an elite finisher at this level, so there is potentially value on Barbosa via decision at around +200.
FIGHT WINNER: Dione Barbosa
UFC VEGAS 105 BEST BET: PASS
–
Rhys McKee (+124) vs Daniel Frunza (-148)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-105) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-125)
Welterweight
Rhys McKee knows how to fight. He knows what he is supposed to do to win. However, he lacks elite physical skills, and against UFC competition, that has cost him several wins. He is 0-4 in the UFC in two stints in the organization. He lost his debut via KO to Khamzat Chimaev in 2020, and followed that up via decision loss to Alex Morono. He went back to Cage Warriors and won and defended a welterweight title in three fights (all KO finishes). He came back to the UFC and could not solve the puzzle of anti-fighter Ange Loosa, losing via decision. He then lost via split decision to veteran Chidi Njokuani. This is all to say that McKee has done great things in other organizations and has fallen flat versus the tip of the mixed martial arts spear. Now facing a newcomer, perhaps his veteran savvy, coupled with desperation, will yield a victory.
Daniel Frunza is a 9-2 professional fighter with eight wins via knockout. The Romanian went 2-0 in LFA, winning both fights via KO as a very solid underdog. He got a shot in Contender Series versus a much more veteran opponent in Vadym Kutsyi and again won via knockout as a +180 underdog. I will put a slight asterisk next to that performance. Kutsyi was out of shape and had not fought for two years. Frunza’s speed is real, but I think McKee’s durability and experience going deep into rounds could be the x-factor. No one wants to bet on an 0-4 UFC fighter, but I am not quite sure Frunza’s record would be any better when faced with the same opponents.
FIGHT WINNER: Rhys McKee
UFC VEGAS 105 BEST BET: Rhys McKee (+132, FanDuel) vs Frunza, Rusk 1 Unit to Win 1.32
–
Loma Lookboonmee (-950) vs Istela Nunes (+625)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-280) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+210)
Women’s Strawweight
Loma Lookboonmee is an intriguing Women’s Bantamweight fighter because she has excellent Muay Thai. As a Thai fighter, she has a deep understanding of the discipline and is an effective kicker and clincher. She is 6-2 in the UFC, with both losses coming as an underdog via decision versus veterans Angela Hill and Lupita Godinez. She is on a three-fight win streak, and shocked everyone in 2023 when she won a fight via submission. Despite being branded as a proud Thai Fighter, she lands more takedowns than the average fighter and takes advantage of the full range of training available at Syndicate MMA. As a favorite, she is 6-0 in the UFC, and I do not expect that to change against Istela Nunes. Nunes is 6-5 as a professional and 0-4 in the UFC. Three of her UFC losses have come inside the distance because she is not defensively sound. She is a volume striker with subpar accuracy and a penchant for getting hit. Versus Loma Lookboonme, I do not expect her to win the striking exchanges.
FIGHT WINNER: Loma Lookboonmee
UFC VEGAS 105 BEST BET: Loma Lookboonmee over 60.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115) vs Nunes, Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
–
Victor Henry (-205) vs Pedro Falcao (+170)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-280) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+210)
Bantamweight
Victor Henry is another fighter whose IQ exceeds his physical ability. He is experienced and cerebral, but he lacks the physicality to impose his will on elite opponents. The 37-year-old veteran is 24-7 as a pro and 3-2 (1 NC). The question here is how good is Pedro Falcao? Falcao is 32, 16-4 as a pro and 0-1 in the UFC. He was a slight dog versus Victor Hugo in his debut, but he showed well in the decision loss. Prior to the UFC he faced many experienced regional scene fighters and even won a Contender Series bout via KO back in 2021 That said I am not sure his takedown and hold style will be effective versus someone like Henry who has defeated some of the most experienced grapplers in the division in Rani Yahya and Raoni Barcelos. Henry’s 84% takedown defender rate is key in this fight. If that number holds up, he will get his hand raised.
FIGHT WINNER: Victor Henry
UFC VEGAS 105 BEST BET: Pass
–
Martin Buday (-166) vs Uran Satybaldiev (+140)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-115) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-115)
Heavyweight
Martin Buday is 14-2 as a pro fighter and 5-1 in the UFC. His one loss came to Shamil Gaziev, who was able to overwhelm with volume and find the second round standing KO finish. Outside of that, he has taken care of low-level UFC heavyweights (three of which are no longer in the UFC). He has generally looked the part when the favorite. He is well-rounded and uses his 77” reach well. Uran Satybaldiev is 9-0 as a professional with eight wins inside the distance. He took this fight on short notice after Kennedy Nzechukwu had to withdraw on short notice. Satyabaldiev is truly a light heavyweight, which is why he hit the scales at 222.5 pounds in a fight in which Buday weighed in at 266. This is truly going to be a matchup of finesse versus power, and unfortunately for the newcomer, I do not think he is going to enjoy his welcome to the UFC. There will probably be a speed advantage for Satybaldiev, but if this fight gets on the ground and Buday gets control, this fight is over.
FIGHT WINNER: Martin Buday
UFC VEGAS 105 BEST BET: Martin Buday (-166) vs Satybaldiev, Risk 1.66 Units to Win 1
–
Vanessa Demopoulos (-108) vs Talita Alencar (-112)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-445) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+310)
Women’s Strawweight
Vanessa Demopoulos is often overlooked in the UFC. As such, she has an impressive record as an underdog in the organization. She is 5-3 in the UFC, but she is 4-3 as an underdog (wins at +290, +250, -105, +195), so her ability to rise to the occasion cannot be undervalued. This fight is virtually a pick ’em, and Demopoulos is fighting a much more inexperienced fighter in Talita Alencar. Alencar is 5-1-1 as a pro and 1-1 in the UFC (she fought to a draw vs Luciano in Contender Series, then lost in the UFC). Alencar’s one win in the UFC was against Rayanne dos Santos, which is not a victory I consider all that impressive. Demopoulos is far from a clean fighter. She gets taken down too easily and gets hit a lot. Alencar’s striking is subpar, but her persistent takedown offense could be a problem in this fight. Demopoulos is a fighter I look to back in what I perceive to be a close fight. Her ability to make winning decisions in winning moments is why she is never an easy out. The relatively little experience of Alencar is hard to get excited about.
FIGHT WINNER: Vanessa Demopoulos
UFC VEGAS 105 BEST BET: Pass
–
UFC VEGAS 105 BEST BEST BETS RECAP
– Lerone Murphy Wins Via Decision (+100, FanDuel), vs Emmett, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
– Joanderson Brito to Win Inside the Distance vs Sabatini (-125), Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
– Torrez Finney to WIn In Round 1 or 2 (+150) vs Valentin (Risk 1 Unit to WIn 1.5)
– Rhys McKee (+132, FanDuel) vs Frunza, Rusk 1 Unit to Win 1.32
– Loma Lookboonmee over 60.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115) vs Nunes, Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
– Martin Buday (-166) vs Satybaldiev, Risk 1.66 Units to Win 1
