UFC Vegas 105 Predictions:
The APEX in Las Vegas, NV hosts this week’s UFC Vegas 105, an event that is the 10th of 11 fight productions in 11 weeks. The card features 13 scheduled bouts populated with athletes from across the globe.
The APEX employs a smaller 25-foot Octagon in a state-of-the-art facility for fights/fight productions, but unfortunately, it allows for little attendance.
Favorites returned to dominance last week, running 10-2, yet the rate of favorites on the year is 57.8%, well below the typical 62/63% average.
Last week, Miguel Torres KO’d Drew Dober in the first round of their co-main event battle, pushing digital results this year to 7-8 -.95u.
Lerone Murphy -340 vs. Josh Emmett +280
Featherweight (145 pounds) main event
Emmett is the division’s eighth-ranked fighter, yet he is a substantial underdog to Lerone Murphy from England, who is ranked tenth.
The Englishman travels to the States to face a fighter in Emmett who is extremely aggressive, packs profuse power, and has competed against the elite in the division.
Emmett’s last fight versus Bryce Mitchell was spectacular. Emmett brutally KO’d Mitchell in round one of their fight in December 2023. Utilize that fight as evidence of Emmett’s death touch.
Emmett is now forty and coming off a 16-month layoff after that Mitchell bout, which may be affecting how the market is viewing this fight. In my estimation, that much time can help an older competitor or it may leave them looking old, as with Jan Blachowicz a few weeks ago.
In Lerone Murphy, we get a fighter who uses keen athleticism, deft footwork and precision striking to complement his purple belt in BJJ. Murphy, who sports a positive 1.13 significant strike differential per round, prefers to stand and pick opponents apart with volume striking laced with evasive defensive ability.
Once this fight begins, we’ll see two strikers compete against each other’s striker style. Will Emmett be able to earn the inside to unleash his devastating hooks, crosses, knees, and elbows onto his British adversary, or will Murphy’s deft movement and ability to maintain space allow him to pepper Emmett as he forges his way forward to engage?
This will be a fascinating clash of styles, but despite Emmett’s age, I believe his forward force, his profuse power, and 25 minutes of fight time put him in a better position to upset than the current odds suggest.
UFC Vegas 105 Best Bet: Josh Emmett +280 .5u
Patience, as this number keeps rising
Total in this fight 4.5 Rds. Over -190
Joanderson Brito -210 vs. Pat Sabatini +185
Featherweight co-main event
Two capable fighters sitting just outside the top 15 compete in the co-main event.
Sabatini, a black belt in BJJ as well as in Tang Soo Do (a Korean adaptation of Karate), uses unrelenting forward pressure to back opponents against the fence, then onto the floor, where from top position, Sabatini is quite dangerous.
Brazilian Brito enters this fight off a terrible hometown decision loss to William Gomis last fall in Paris.
Brito is strong, athletic, powerful, and a BJJ savant. He’ll be direct in his approach to trying to knock Sabatini’s head off, but he’ll need to protect himself against the takedown. But world-class wrestling (Sabatini’s forte) is Kryptonite to world-class BJJ.
The fortunate thing for Brito is that he’s deft at cutting the cage to close in on opponents. The smaller cage will allow him to close distance to engage in his power striking, which is the heart and soul of the Brito physiology.
Once the bell rings for this bout, Sabatini will have a difficult time closing the distance on Brito without eating some four-ounce leather sandwiches, and too many flush Brito strikes will stop any featherweight.
Brito’s speed, footwork, aggression, and finishing ability, taken with the fact that he enters this fight off a terrible decision, forces me to regard him as ready to perform at his utmost best.
Sabatini, who has a difficult ability to evade strikes and withstand flush shots to the face, seems somewhat overmatched in this fight.
The Brito opening number was -400 and is now -205. The opening number is more indicative of how this fight will go down.
UFC Vegas 105 Best Bet: Joanderson Brito -210
Total in this fight 1.5 Rds Over -195
Torrez Finney -240 vs. Robert Valentin +200
Middleweight (185 pounds)
This is the “styles make fights” Angelo Dundee tribute fight!
In one corner, we’ll have a sawed-off, short, squat, hand grenade of a wrestling talent in Torrez Finney, who opened -300 in this fight.
In Robert Valentin, Finney faces a long, tall, Swiss power striker/submission specialist who will be six inches taller and four years younger than he. Valentin opened a +250 dog in this fight despite the fact that he’s a pedigreed finisher.
The Torrez physique makes him look more like a framer than a fighter, but this guy is explosive, forceful, and equipped with a wrestler’s cardio. His striking ability, however, is base, as is his strike defense, but he overcomes that lack of fight diversity with incredible will and unrelenting wrestling pressure.
Finney’s approach will be to take the striker down, then from top position, rain down damage until the referee stops the fight.
His opponent, Valentin, is chiseled, angular, and will loom over the shorter, more compact Finney. Valentin must manage distance to leverage his strikes on Finney, but by all means and by every cost, he must keep this fight standing because if he drops to the floor with Finney, he’ll be flogged.
Valentin’s strategy will be to stick and move and try to time one of his devastating straight knees or uppercuts onto the incoming wrestler when he rushes in for the takedown.
Can the striker Valentin keep this fight standing, or will Finney find a way to swarm the Swiss fighter, clasp onto him, then drag him to the canvas for a smearing?
Total in this fight is 2.5 Rds Over -195
Friday midday PST, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights.
