UFC Vegas 106 Predictions – Burns vs. Morales:
*Currently on my honeymoon, so the UFC Vegas 106 predictions are a bit shorter than usual!
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Gilbert Burns (+425) vs Michael Morales (-575)
Over 3.5 Rounds (+115) | Under 3.5 Rounds (-135)
Welterweight
Michael Morales is just 25 years old and boasts a 17-0 Record. He is 5-0 in the UFC, and his last three victories have all come against certified UFC gatekeepers in Max Griffin, Jake Matthews, and Neil Magny. One could argue that Gilbert Burns is going to be his toughest gatekeeper yet, but I hard disagree. Gilbert Burns has been waiting to start his next winning streak for 3 consecutive fights.. He only fights the best of the best, but at age 38, he no longer has his best stuff. BJJ has always been there, power started showing up about eight years ago, but now he is just a jack of all trades without any one particular skill that can overwhelm a young, hungry, and talented opponent.
FIGHT WINNER: Michael Morales
UFC VEGAS 106 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below
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Paul Craig (+330) vs Rodolfo Bellato (-425)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-120)
Light Heavyweight
Paul Craig is not a mixed martial artist. He is a BJJ player who sometimes lands strikes versus mixed martial artists, but not usually. Rodolfo Bellato is not a fully formed 29-year-old fighter with a 12-2-1 record. But he can strike, and Craig cannot take a punch. I expect Bellato to win this inside the distance unless he plays overly conservatively. I still think he wins a conservative fight because he will land much more than Paul Craig.
FIGHT WINNER: Rodolfo Bellato
UFC VEGAS 106 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below
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Sodiq Yusuff (+130) vs Mairon Santos (-155)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-215) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+165)
Lightweight
Sodiq Yusuff was overrated for several fights. He got a following due to his social media antics, but he was never the fighter that people wanted him to be. Now he is an underdog versus a The Ultimate Fighter Champion who is very lucky to be sitting on a 2-0 UFC record. Yusuff is worth a bet at this price because he has more power than his opponent and is lapping him when it comes to high-level experience.
FIGHT WINNER Sodiq Yusuff
UFC VEGAS 106 BEST BET: Sodiq Yusuff +130 vs Santos, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.3
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Nursulton Ruziboev (-230) vs Dustin Stoltzfus (+190)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+105) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-125)
Middleweight
Nursulton Ruziboev is one of my favorite prospects in all of the UFC in the middleweight division. He has tons of high-level experience and is a finishing threat no matter where the fight takes place. He is 3-1 in the UFC, but his loss came down a weight class when he fought the surging Joaquin Buckley in hostile territory. All three of his wins have come via KO. Dustin Stoltzfus shocked the world with his KO win over Marc-Andre Barriault last November. I think that was a performance that we will never see Stoltzfus repeat in the UFC.
FIGHT WINNER: Nursulton Ruziboev
UFC VEGAS 106 BEST BET: Parlay: Nursulton Ruziboev/Rodalfol Bellato/Michael Morales +102, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.02
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Julian Erosa (+164) vs Melquizael Costa (-198)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+150) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-195)
Featherweight
Melky Costa is on fire as a featherweight, and nothing about Julian Erosa’s recent success against over-the-hill and overrated fighters scares me.
Fight Winner; Melquizael Costa
UFC VEGAS 106 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below
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Matheus Camilo (-225) vs Gabe Green (+185)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+120) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-154)
Lightweight
To me, Camilo is too new to this level of competition to be laying this type of price. That being said, Gabe Green hasn’t won a fight vs. 2022.
FIGHT WINNER: Mattheus Camilo
UFC VEGAS 106 BEST BET: Pass
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Jared Gordon (-125) vs Thiago Moises (+105)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-315) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+230)
Lightweight
Jared Gordon is never going to be an easy out. Thiago Moises cannot strike. This fight will probably go to Gordon, but the fight IQ lapses I’ve seen keep me off laying the short price.
FIGHT WINNER Jared Gordon
UFC VEGAS 106 BEST BET: Pass
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Connor Matthews (+425) vs Yadier Del Valle (-575)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-115) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-105)
Featherweight
Conor Matthews is N.F.L. Not For Long in the UFC. He knows what he needs to do to win, but he doesn’t have the skills to get it done. Del Valle should win inside the distance.
FIGHT WINNER: Yadier Del Valle
UFC VEGAS 106 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Luana Santos (-192) vs Tainara Lisboa (+160)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-270) Under 2.5 Rounds (+200)
Women’s Bantamweight
This is not a good fight, but there is low-key finish equity on both sides.
FIGHT WINNER: Luana Santos
UFC VEGAS 106 BEST BET: Pass
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Denise Gomes (-675) vs Elise Reed (+490)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+130)
Women’s Strawweight
Denise Gomes has a chance to fight for a belt one day. Elise Reed is not a lock to be on the UFC roster in 2026.
FIGHT WINNER: Denise Gomes
UFC VEGAS 106 BEST BET: Parlay: Denise Gomes/Yadier Del Valle/Melquizael Costa (+107), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.07
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Hyun Sung Park(-185) vs Carlos Hernandez (+154)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-230) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+185)
Flyweight
Small guy who is a small favorite is a dangerous betting combination, but I am not a Hernandez believer at all.
FIGHT WINNER: Hyun Sung Park
UFC VEGAS 106 BEST BET: Pass
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Luana Pinheiro (-345) vs Tecia Pennington (+275)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-375) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+270)
Women’s Flyweight
Luana Pinheirio is getting some sort of benefit of the doubt that I don’t understand. Pennington is worthy of being used in a parlay at -325, but at her age, it’s not an overly attractive bet.
FIGHT WINNER: Tecia Pennington
UFC VEGAS 106 BEST BET: Tecia Pennington (+275) vs Pinheiro, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.75
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UFC VEGAS 106 BEST BETS RECAP:
- Parlay: Nursulton Ruziboev/Rodalfol Bellato/Michael Morales +102, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.02
- Sodiq Yusuff +130 vs Santos, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.3
- Parlay: Denise Gomes/Yadier Del Valle/Melquizael Costa (+107), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.07
- Tecia Pennington (+275) vs Pinheiro, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.75
