UFC Vegas 107 Predictions – Blanchfield vs. Barber:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Vegas 107 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week; 3-1 +1.75 Units (30.43% ROI)
Since 2020: 716-684 (+190.27 Units, 10.91% ROI)
PICK’EM HISTORY
Last Week: 9-2 (81.82%)
Article History: 383-249-1 (60.7%)
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Erin Blanchfield (-218) vs Maycee Barber (+180)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+145)
Women’s Flyweight (126 Pound Catchweight)
Erin Blanchfield was on the UFC fast track to stardom. She began her UFC career with a 6-0 record in the organization and was given a main event billing in her home state of New Jersey. In that marquee fight, she was a -190 favorite but did not get her hand raised after Manon Fiorot dominated for five rounds. Her follow-up fight was against the legendary Rose Namajunas. She outstruck Namajunas in the final four rounds and dominated with control time. She is a wrestler first, but she does have a willingness to strike with high volume to set up her takedowns. She is 5’4” with a 66” reach, meaning that opponents like Fiorot can dominate her physically, but more often than not, her technique is good enough to get her hand raised. She has three career submission victories in the UFC, but her last three fights have all gone to a decision.
Maycee Barber was also on a fast track to UFC stardom, but she has already had to build herself back up from two humbling experiences. She went 3-0 after a Contender Series victory. Those four fights all ended with Barber winning via knockout. However, she lost as a massive favorite to Roxanne Modafferi, then followed that fight up with another decision loss to Alexa Grasso. She easily could have been on her way out of the organization after such unremarkable results, but she came back strong and has won six consecutive fights in the past four years. She is 2-0 in the UFC as a betting underdog, and the 27-year-old seemed to be maturing as a fighter. But after missing weight this week, some questions still need to be answered. Barber weighed in at 126.5 pounds, just a half pound over the flyweight limit. Sometimes fighters forego cutting the final half pound because they don’t want to compromise their performance in the ring. Other times, it’s because they are physically unable to do the work needed to finish the cut. Based on the footage of Barber at the weigh-in, her issues with the cut looked more like a physical issue than a tactical decision.
I think Maycee Barber would have a good shot at beating Erin Blanchfield. She has fought stiff competition and has progressed in maturity inside the ring. Blanchfield is a rightful favorite, especially after the issues with Barber’s weight cut. I expect Blanchfield to be strong in the clinch and dictate the pace of this fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Erin Blanchfield
UFC VEGAS 107 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below
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Mateusz Gamrot (-155) vs Ludovit Klein (+130)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-298) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+220)
Lightweight
Mateusz Gamrot is an aggressive wrestler in the octagon who attempts takedown after takedown until he breaks the will of his opponent. This strategy usually works. He has a 7-3 record overall in the Organization. He lacks true striking power and hasn’t won via finish since 2021 (he was awarded a TKO vs Rafael Fiziev in 2023, but that was due to a knee injury sustained in the cage). His last fight was a split decision loss to Dan Hooker in August. Hooker’s takedown defense was good enough when it mattered most, and Hooker also landed the heavier strikes. On paper, Ludovit Klein could present some similar challenges for Gamrot.
Ludovit Klein is 7-2-1 in the UFC and on a seven-fight unbeaten streak. Both of his UFC losses came when he was fighting down a weight class at featherweight. He is a striker with a +0.59 significant strike differential, but he has also been very successful at defending takedowns, boasting a 91% takedown defense rate. He also lands 1.7 takedowns of his own per 15 minutes in the UFC cage. He has not faced an opponent with the grappling pedigree of Gamrot, and I think that this fight will be a wake-up call. I don’t want to totally disparage his lightweight division record, but I don’t think he has been fighting the level of competition Gamrot has faced.
FIGHT WINNER: Mateusz Gamrot
UFC VEGAS 107 BEST BET: Parlay- Mateusz Gamrot/Erin Blanchfield (+139), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.39
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Ramiz Brahimaj (+310) vs Billy Ray Goff (-395)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+130)
Welterweight
Ramiz Brahimaj has been in the UFC since 2020 and has a 3-3 record. He has faced injuries that have limited his activity and forced him to miss most of 2022 and all of 2023. Since returning, he lost a decision to Themba Gorimbo as a short underdog, then knocked out Mickey Gall last November as an underdog in the same odds range. Brahimaj is a bit underrated due to the limited fight time and mediocre record. But he has seen some good opponents and has lasted in the organization longer than most for a reason. His striking numbers are bad, landing just 2.26 significant strikes per minute, and only defending 43% of his opponent’s attempts, but if he gets an opponent to the ground, he is a finishing threat.
Billy Ray Goff is 1-1 in the UFC and a super exciting fighter. He is a pedal-to-the-metal pressure fighter who hunts for knockouts. As a pro, he is 9-3, and seven of his wins have come via KO. When his Contender Series KO victory is included, he lands at a blistering pace, 8.56 significant strikes per minute, but he absorbs 5.71, which is not very good. He has a 100% takedown defense rate in the organization but has only seen two attempts in three fights. The expectation is for Billy Ray Goff to win this on the feet, but I am not sure I can swallow this price.
FIGHT WINNER: Billy Ray Goff
UFC VEGAS 107 BEST BET: Pass
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Dustin Jacoby (-192) vs Bruno Lopes (+160)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-115) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-115)
Light Heavyweight
Dustin Jacoby is 8-6-1 in the UFC after a solid career in Glory Kickboxing. He is 2-2 in his last two fights, with both wins coming as an underdog, and the losses coming as a substantial favorite. His last fight was very impressive, a knockout victory versus Vitor Petrino. Petrino employed his standard grappling-heavy game plan, but Jacoby was able to weather the storm and land a knockout blow with a right cross late in the third round. His fight IQ was highlighted in this spot as a +250 underdog. Jacoby outstrikes nearly every opponent he faces and boasts a +1.28 significant strike differential in the UFC. His takedown defense rate is 62%, but in this fight, more than just defending takedowns, he needs to avoid the clinch against the cage.
Bruno Lopes is a true underdog story. He lost his first fight in Contender Series, which was his first and only loss as a professional. He went back to LFA after that fight and won via submission. He was awarded a second shot on Contender Series and won via second-round TKO. IN his UFC debut, he was a +215 underdog to Magomed Gadzhiyasulov and won a straightforward decision through his control. He did not let the powerful striker have room to operate and landed five takedowns on 14 attempts. He is 32 years old and five years younger than his opponent, which means he should have more tread on the tire. I don’t think such a rudimentary game plan will be effective against an experienced opponent.
FIGHT WINNER: Dustin Jacoby
UFC VEGAS 107 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below
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Ketlen Vieira (+114) vs Macy Chiasson (-135)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-270) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+200)
Womens Catchweight (144 Pounds)
Ketlen Vieira is the reason why this fight is essentially reviving the women’s featherweight division. Vieira cited issues with her weight cut, and Chaisson agreed to fight at a class 10 pounds higher than what was initially agreed upon. It’s a shame that the storyline of this fight has to do with the scale because Ketlen Vieira is a very good fighter with an 8-4 UFC record. She has defeated past champions Holly Holm and Miesha Tate and went to a split decision with another in Raquel Pennington. Her last fight was a decision loss to Kayla Harrison, who is challenging for the belt at UFC 316. It should be noted that Vieira has missed weight once before, and she lost that fight ot Yana Santos as a -275 favorite.
Macy Chiasson missed all of 2023 due to injury, but is 2-0 since returning to the cage. Her last two fights have been won via finish and have both earned her performance bonuses. She is a good striker, landing 3.77 significant strikes per minute, but does lack elite defense. She usually finds a way to get fights to the ground and lands nearly 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. Her path to victory in this fight is probably through patience, and taking advantage of her massive 72” reach. She is also 5’11”, which is on the higher end of women in any mixed martial arts division.
FIGHT WINNER: Macy Chiasson
UFC VEGAS 107 BEST BET: Macy Chiasson (-130. BetOnline), vs Vieira, Risk 1.3 Units to Win 1
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Zach Reese (-205) vs Dusko Todorovic (+170)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+145) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-188)
Middleweight
Zach Reese is 8-2 as a pro, 2-2 in the UFC, and in my opinion quite overrated. He is very aggressive, which excites the fans, but I do not love his defense, and I do not love his chin. He marches forward, even if that is exactly what his opponent wants. But his 88% finish rate speaks for itself, and the danger he presents is real. He has faced exactly one opponent that I would consider good, and he lost that fight via ground and pound in the first round. For now, I consider him a can crusher until further notice. That leads to the next question: Is Dusko Todorovic a can?
Dusko Todorovic has had a tough go in the UFC. He is 3-5 in the organization, with all three victories coming via knockout. Four of his five losses have also come via KO, including a fight versus Christian Leroy Duncan in which he suffered a brutal knee injury that caused him to miss over a year. The Serbian fighter does not run from action and actually lands strikes at a slightly higher rate than Reese. He also has a slightly better (but still bad) striking defense rate. His experience has value, and he has seen much tougher opponents than Reese throughout his eight-fight UFC career. I have to take a shot on the dog in this high variance bout.
FIGHT WINNER: Dusko Todorovic
UFC VEGAS 107 BEST BET: Dusko Todorovic (+190, FanDuel) vs Reese, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.9
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Allan Nascimento (-125) vs Jafel Filho (+105)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+114)
Flyweight (126 Pound Catchweight)
Allan Nascimento also missed weight for this bout, tipping the scale at 127.5 pounds. Nascimento is lucky to be in the UFC. He lost in Contender Series via split decision versus Raulian Paiva, but was given a short-notice fight versus Tagir Ulanbekov as a late replacement. He lost that fight via split decision, which turned some heads. He followed that up with a decision win versus Jake Hadley as a +175 underdog, then submitted Carlos Hernandez as a -350 favorite. His last four scheduled bouts have fizzled out due to injury and other reasons. He has not been active since January 2023. He was actually scheduled to fight Filho last August, so this fight has been on both fighters’ minds for a while. Nascimento wins when he has ground control, which may be an issue in this fight. He has nearly a two-inch reach advantage, and if he wants to try to keep range, he has a good shot at winning a striking match.
Jafel Filho is an elite BJJ practitioner. His debut came against Muhammad Mokaev, a fight he lost via submission in the third round. He rebounded with two first-round submission victories versus fighters who were totally overmatched on the ground. He is not the most technical or proficient striker, but he avoids getting hit because he spends so much time controlling distance with the threat of a takedown. Once on the ground, he is hard to escape from. Both of these fighters have gotten the majority of their wins via submission, so this will be an interesting matchup of strengths. I think Filho gets a slight edge due to Nascimento’s inactivity in the past two years.
FIGHT WINNER: Jafel Filho
UFC VEGAS 107 BEST BET: Pass
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Jordan Leavitt (-245) vs Kurt Holobaugh (+200)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-135) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+105)
Lightweight
Jordan Leavitt began his UFC career with an impressive 3-1 record, but as his level of competition increased, his results suffered. He is 1-2 in his last three fights, but the losses have come to rising stars Paddy Pimblett and Chase Hooper. Both opponents were able to find rear-naked choke victories, which is a bit surprising considering Leavitt has strong grappling of his own. His last win was a knockout victory in which he was able to soften his opponent with knees from the clinch and follow up with a flurry of punches. He is not an active striker, only landing 2.55 significant strikes per minute, but he is accurate with a 61% hit rate. He is also hard to hit, mainly because he is usually in grappling exchanges, avoiding stand-up brawls.
Kurt Holobaugh has to be on his last leg in the organization. He is 2-6 in the UFC, and this is his second go at MMA’s top promotion. His last three fights have gone to a decision, and he is 1-2 in those bouts. He is 38 years old and fully dedicated to his craft, but I don’t think he was a physically intimidating opponent in his best days. At his current age, I’m not sure what athleticism is left. He was a finisher in lower organizations with an 81% career finish rate. But against UFC-level competition, the results have just not been there. He is a much more active striker than his opponent, but has a significantly worse defense rate. If this fight gets to the mat, I am not sure he will be able to get back to his feet.
FIGHT WINNER: Jordan Leavitt
UFC VEGAS 107 BEST BET: Parlay- Jordan Leavitt/Dustin Jacoby (+115), risk 1 Unit to Win 1.15
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Bolaji Oki (-375) vs Michael Aswell (+295)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+120)
Lightweight
Bolaji Oki is 1-1 in the UFC. He lost his last fight as a -190 favorite versus Chris Duncan by getting submitted in the first round. Prior to that, he went to a split decision versus Timmy Cuamba. That fight was concerning because he landed clean often in that fight, but was not able to get his opponent out of there. Five of his nine professional wins have come via KO, but those have virtually all come in no-name promotions. On paper, he is a very active striker with very solid striking defense. And he also engages in grappling with great success, meaning he has the ingredients to be a very good fighter, but he needs to show power in this matchup for me to believe in his ceiling.
Michael Aswell is stepping into this fight as a replacement opponent. He lost in Contender Series last August in a high-paced fight versus Bogdan Grad. It was a split decision in which Aswell landed 155 significant strikes but was taken down three times. Prior to the UFC, he lost to Yadier del Valle in Fury FC, which is a result that has aged well after del Valle’s performance in the UFC two weeks ago. Aswell has a shot in this one, but I’m not going to back him due to the short-notice circumstances.
FIGHT WINNER: Bolaji Oki
UFC VEGAS 107 BEST BET: Pass
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Rayanne dos Santos (-218) vs Alice Ardelean (+180)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-475) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+325)
Women’s Strawweight
Rayanne dos Santos has had a very frustrating start to her UFC career. She is 0-2 with both losses coming via split decision as a favorite. She needs to right the ship here, or she could be N.F.L. (not for long) in the UFC. Alice Ardelean has had troubles of her own to start her UFC career. She is 0-2 in the UFC with a loss via split decision and a follow-up fight via decision. She was the underdog in both fights, so the result is not all that surprising. Both of these women won a majority of their pre-UFC fights inside the distance, and this matchup feels like it will be full of desperation with the loser going home. Ardelean has a shot to win with her striking, and dos Santos is a legit submission threat. I think these ladies get the night started with some excitement.
FIGHT WINNER: Rayanne dos Santos
UFC VEGAS 107 BEST BET: dos Santos/Ardelean Under 2.5 Rounds (+325), Risk 1 Unit to Win 3.25
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UFC VEGAS 107 BEST BETS RECAP
- Parlay- Mateusz Gamrot/Erin Blanchfield (+139), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.39
- Macy Chiasson (-130. BetOnline), vs Vieira, Risk 1.3 Units to Win 1
- Dusko Todorovic (+190, FanDuel) vs Reese, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.9
- Parlay- Jordan Leavitt/Dustin Jacoby (+115), risk 1 Unit to Win 1.15
- dos Santos/Ardelean Under 2.5 Rounds (+325), Risk 1 Unit to Win 3.25
