UFC Vegas 109 Predictions – Dolidze vs. Hernandez:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Vegas 109 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 1-2, -1 Unit (-31.75% ROI)
Since 2020: 733-708 (+185.06 Units, 10.62% ROI)
PICK’EM HISTORY
Last Week: 9-3 (75%)
Article History: 449-288-1 (60.92%)
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Roman Dolidze (+275) vs. Anthony Hernandez (-345)
Over 3.5 Rounds (-135) | Under 3.5 Rounds (+105)
Middleweight
Roman Dolidze is on a three-fight winning streak and is 9-3 overall in the UFC. He most recently evened the series 1-1 with Marvin Vettori (who was extremely lucky to get the first decision win). His last loss was against Nassourdine Imavov, who is on the short list of middleweight title challengers. Dolidze is extremely strong, but not fast. He is powerful, but not twitchy. He has a strong ground game, but he is more likely to look for ground and pound than a submission. He is an extremely good fighter who is now 37 years old. He gives 100% effort in every fight, making him easy to root for and easy to back. But I am starting to fear he took too long to hit his stride and will never rise above headlining a fight night card. Additionally, his striking metrics are far from those of an elite middleweight, and despite having largely solid grappling results, his grappling metrics are well below average. Only a 40% takedown accuracy rate and 33% takedown defense rate.
Anthony Hernandez has had his nose to the grindstone since a tumultuous start to his UFC career. He went 1-2 in his first two UFC fights, but is now on a seven-fight win streak since 2021. Five of his victories have come inside the distance. He is often in exciting fights because his cardio is one of his best weapons. He often falls behind in the first round, but then finds a way to turn the tables as the fight progresses to later rounds. His last three fights have been against some of the hottest fighters in the division: Brendan Allen, Michel Pereira, and Roman Kopylov. I think that this fight could play out a bit differently because Dolidze isn’t necessarily going to punch himself out early in the fight. I could actually see a slower-paced fight and a lot of neutral ground exchanges, until the more muscular Dolidze starts to wear down.
The odds in this fight are longer than I expected. I believe Hernandez is a rightful favorite, but I would expect the line to be no longer than -250. Additionally, the odds of this fight being finished inside the distance are incorrect at -185. Both fighters are capable finishers, but more impressive than their finishing abilities is their durability. All three of Roman Dolidze’s professional losses have come on the scorecards. Anthony Hernandez has not been finished since his last loss in 2020, a knockout loss to Kevin Holland. I think that this fight goes to the scorecards and a split decision could easily happen.
FIGHT WINNER: Anthony Hernandez
UFC VEGAS 109 BEST BET: Dolidze/Hernandez Fight Goes the Distance (+140), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.4
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Steve Erceg (-575) vs. Ode’ Osbourne (+425)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+130)
Bantamweight
Steve Erceg’s UFC career skyrocketed and nosedived just as fast. He was 2-0 in the UFC and was given a title shot. He lost via decision and then lost his subsequent two bouts against Kai Kara-France and Brandon Moreno. He caught lightning in a bottle at a time when the flyweight division was in desperate need of fresh blood at the top. He is now 30 years old and was given too much too soon. I respect his willingness to fight anyone, anywhere, but he would benefit from taking on a few less experienced opponents. The odds suggest this should be an easy fight, but I think the surrounding circumstances, including the fight being at bantamweight, could make things interesting.
Ode’ Osbourne is a long flyweight whose frame projects to hold weight well at bantamweight. He is a well-rounded mixed martial artist who earned a much-needed win in April. He had been on a three-fight losing streak, but the KO versus Luis Gurule has definitely cleansed the palette of Osbourne fans. That being said, taking this fight on just a week’s notice does not inspire confidence. Erceg is superior as a striker and has better defense. Grappling could be interesting. Osbourne’s submission attempt rate is twice that of Erceg. Still, I believe Erceg gets it done, and Osbourne’s fitness definitely could be a factor.
FIGHT WINNER: Steve Erceg
UFC VEGAS 109 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Iasmin Lucindo (-192) vs. Angela Hill (+160)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-720) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+450)
Women’s Strawweight
Iasmin Lucindo was on a four-fight win streak, but in March, Amanda Lemos found the decision upset. Lucindo prefers to win through grappling and striking defense. She lands fewer than three significant strikes per minute. Overall, she is 4-2 in the UFC. However, her strength of wins is a bit suspect. Her best victory came against Marina Rodriguez, who is 1-5 in her last six fights. Meanwhile, Angela Hill has fought absolutely everyone in the division. She is 13-15 in the UFC but has won three of her last four fights, all while being the betting underdog. Hill has a 75% takedown defense rate and has a much more voluminous striking game. She is 40 years old, but still looks as fit as ever. I think her experience will be an asset in this matchup.
FIGHT WINNER: Angela Hill
UFC VEGAS 109 BEST BET: Angela Hill (+160) vs Iasmin Lucindo, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.6
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Andre Fili (+200) vs. Christian Rodriguez (-245)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-215) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+165)
Featherweight
Andre Fili is now 35 years old and appears to be losing momentum. He is coming off a submission loss to Melky Costa and has not won back-to-back fights since 2019. He is well-rounded and was once a member of the new breed of MMA youngsters who came of age training all facets of the sport. But he has never developed any one attribute that can raise him above the featherweight fray. Christian Rodriguez is an interesting fighter because he is tough to back as a favorite. He is 5-3 in the UFC, but 3-1 as an underdog. When expectations are high, he seems to fall short. His best work has been done against young, overhyped prospects. Andre Fili couldn’t be further from that profile.
Rodriguez is the more accurate striker, the more aggressive grappler, and better defensively overall. Additionally, Rodriguez has much more to fight for at just 27 years old. He has seen ups and downs and had many memorable fights, but he is still young enough to ascend in the division. If he stays focused and avoids lapses in fight IQ, he can run away with this fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Christian Rodriguez
UFC VEGAS 109 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Miles Johns (+205) vs. Jean Matsumoto (-250)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-315) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+230)
Bantamweight
Miles Johns is 6-3 (1 NC) in the UFC. He fought surging prospect Felipe Lima last December but lost via unanimous decision. Four of his UFC victories have gone the distance. Conversely, Jean Matsumoto is much more inexperienced at this level. He is 2-1 in the organization after facing his first professional defeat to veteran Rob Font in February in a short-notice fight. It was a split decision and a learning experience. Miles John’s ceiling performances are nowhere near Rob Font’s, and Rob Font flew straight to his ceiling to edge out Matsumoto in a split decision. I believe Matsumoto’s striking volume will be the story of this fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Jean Matsumoto
UFC VEGAS 109 BEST BET: Parlay- Steve Erceg/Christian Rodriguez/Jean Matsumoto (+132), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.32
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Eryk Anders (+390) vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (-520)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)
Middleweight
Eryk Anders is now 38 years old and riding a two-fight win streak. He edged out Jamie Pickett in a decision and was able to TKO Chris Weidman via ground and pound last December. Anders is a tough fighter to back because, at his age, he no longer moves as fluidly as he once did, and his offensive output is at times glacially slow. Christian Leroy Duncan is a 30-year-old caught between the roles of prospect and gatekeeper. He is 4-2 in the UFC, but his strength of wins leaves a lot to be desired. His two toughest opponents are his two losses to Gregory Rodriguez and Armen Petrosyan. Duncan’s speed should be a real advantage, but his ability to stop takedowns will be a major question. Anders is no stranger to relying on wrestling and brute strength to find his wins. Additionally, his strength of schedule is superior to CLD. I don’t think this will be a fun fight to watch, and I do not think backing Anders is going to be fun, but he has my money in this bout.
FIGHT WINNER: Eryk Anders
UFC VEGAS 109 BEST BET: Eryk Anders (+390) vs Duncan, Risk 1 Unit to Win 3.9
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Julius Walker (-700) vs. Raffael Cerqueira (+500)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+190) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-250)
Light Heavyweight
Julius Walker is 0-1 in the UFC but a massive favorite. A bit surprising considering Cerqueira was a highly respected prospect and an undefeated fighter (before going 0-2 in the UFC). That said, Walker debuted against a savvy veteran in Alonzo Menifield, and he displayed great toughness and aggression in that split decision loss. He is a raw fighter at 26 years old, but he has the tools to excel in this division due to his crisp striking and long frame. Cerqueira’s chin is a major concern. He was knocked out in his first two fights, including against Modesta Bukauskas, an opponent whose power is average at best. Cerqueiria’s striking defense is amongst the worst we have seen in this division, albeit his sample size is quite small. I expect volume and accuracy from Walker to dictate this fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Julius Walker
UFC VEGAS 109 BEST BET: Pass
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Elijah Smith (-800) vs. Toshiomi Kazama (+550)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+114) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-145)
Bantamweight
Elijah Smith is a UFC legacy (his father competed in the organization). He is 1-0 after edging out veteran Vince Morales via decision. That fight was good for building confidence, but it also raises a few questions, mainly in the condition department. He is just 22 years old, but was sucking wind in the third round of his debut. Toshiomi Kazama seemed like he was on his way out of the organization, but in his last fight, he was a 2/1 underdog versus Charalampos Grigoriou and won via second-round submission. He is a road to UFC veteran, but his pre-UFC experience was against low-level combatants. Kazama does his best work with submissions, but given the fact Smith was able to withstand Morales’s grappling pressure, I do not like his prospects here.
FIGHT WINNER: Elijah Smith
UFC VEGAS 109 BEST BET: Pass
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Joselyne Edwards (-395) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+310)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+140)
Women’s Bantamweight
Joselyne Edwards is a tough fighter to handicap. She has missed weight three times, but is 3-0 in those fights. She made it to the scale clean this week. She also has a penchant for being in extremely close fights. Her first eight fights in the organization went to the judges’ scorecards. However, in her last two, she has been able to find finishes. She is a good striker, but her striking defense is below average. That said, she is statistically a superior striker both offensively and defensively when put side by side with Cachoeira. Additionally, Cachoeira is 36 years old and has struggled with big, strong fighters who fit Edwards’ profile.
FIGHT WINNER: Joselyne Edwards
UFC VEGAS 109 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Uros Medic (-340) vs. Gilbert Urbina (+270)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+120) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-154)
Welterweight
Uros Medic is 10-3 as a pro and has never seen the judges’ scorecards. He has the gift of power in his hands, but at times he struggles when facing opponents who are willing to grapple. Additionally, he has bounced between welterweight and lightweight but has had struggles in both divisions. But this big price is justified in my mind. Gilbert Urbina is a The Ultimate Fighter veteran (1-1 on the show). He is now 1-2 in the UFC. He has been finished twice and has a knockout win versus UFC flameout Orion Cosce. Urbina is a much more active grappler than Medic, but the issue is his striking defense. He has been hit 4.61 times per minute while being hit by 56% of his opponent’s striking attempts. Medic has won against fighters who have tried to grapple. He perfectly timed an uppercut versus Tim Means and ended that fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Uros Medic
UFC VEGAS 109 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below
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Gabriella Fernandes (-440) vs. Julija Stoliarenko (+340)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+135) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-175)
Women’s Flyweight
Gabriella Fernandes was on the fast track to being out of the organization after starting her UFC career 0-2. However, she defeated Carli Judice in a fight of the night performance and followed that up with a submission victory over Cong Wang as a +625 favorite. Now she is a big favorite, which is uncharted territory. Julija Stolarenko is 2-6 in the UFC, but her two wins were first-round submission victories. I think she is N.F.L. (not for long) in the organization, and this could be the last time we see her.
FIGHT WINNER: Gabriella Fernandes
UFC VEGAS 109 BEST BET: Parlay- Gabriella Fernandes/Joselyne Edwards/Uros Medic (+100)
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Cody Brundage (-170) vs. Eric McConico (+142)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-105) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-125)
Light Heavyweight
Cody Brundage looked to be on his way out of the UFC, but a few fortuitous results set him up to hold onto his career a bit longer. He had an exciting fight versus Julian Marquez, a fight he won via first-round KO. He was also on his way to losing his last fight versus Mansur Abdul-Malik, but he was able to get it turned into a no contest due to Georgia Athletic Commission Rules about scoring incomplete rounds. Eric McConico fought in Tuff-N-Uff before the UFC and put together some exciting results, including a body shot KO versus UFC veteran Maki Pitolo. McConico lost his UFC debut via KO to Nursulton Ruziboev, but that was a much tougher task than Brundage. His takedown defense will be tested here, and I am not willing to bet it will hold up.
FIGHT WINNER: Cody Brundage
UFC VEGAS 109 BEST BET: Pass
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UFC VEGAS 109 BEST BETS RECAP
- Dolidze/Hernandez Fight Goes the Distance (+140), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.4
- Angela Hill (+160) vs Iasmin Lucindo, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.6
- Parlay- Steve Erceg/Christian Rodriguez/Jean Matsumoto (+132), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.32
- Eryk Anders (+390) vs Duncan, Risk 1 Unit to Win 3.9
- Parlay- Gabriella Fernandes/Joselyne Edwards/Uros Medic (+100)
