UFC Vegas 109 Predictions:
Last week, UFC LV 108 held at the organization’s APEX facility saw chalk roll to a 9-2 result, pushing favorites in the UFC in 2025 to 64.7%. That percentage is a couple of basis points plus higher than normal yearly averages. I mention this after the most stringent favorite result in years occurred in 2024, when favorites ran above 70%!
As far as this week’s card is concerned, we return to the APEX, where fights are still held in the small 25-foot cage. But athletes are now able to compete in the newly designed and remodeled facility, where the crowds are slightly larger than the oh so few that were able to view the fights before the remodel.
This card is scheduled for 11 fights. It has only four battles at Welterweight (170 pounds) or above. There are eight fights where the age difference is six years or greater, with the most obtuse difference being a 17-year span between Angela Hill and Iasmine Lucindo. We also have a fighter changing weight classes, and in this case, the athlete is moving UP in weight as opposed to down.
I have talked about the importance of age, and how critical youth is in UFC outcomes, especially when said youth is complemented with size and length.
Advantage in UFC bouts can manifest in various ways, shapes, and forms. In this weekly column, we try to expose readers to the nuances of those advantages.
This UFC Vegas 109 fight card starts at 1 p.m. PT with the prelims. The main card drops at 4 p.m. PT.
Last week, Neil Magny +185 displayed how much strength of schedule (opponents faced in previous bouts) can be a great indicator of fighters who may hold advantage once they are allowed to compete with other than an elite world-class mixed martial artist.
Magny finished a tough and durable Elizeo Zaleski dos Santos in the second round. That win pushed digital results to 16-17 + .53u for the year. The goal now is to stack wins together to finish this 2025 campaign with an enhanced bottom line.
This is the eighth year that this column has been fortunate enough to be featured on VSiN. The column has realized bottom-line profitability in each year since VSiN began, and I plan on this year being no different, so bite down on those mouthpieces, fight fans, and let’s invest in UFC Vegas 109!
Anthony Hernandez -320 vs. Roman Dolidze +270
Middleweight (185 pounds) main event
Dolidze is a Georgian fighter who can pivot between the light heavyweight and middleweight divisions of the UFC. He is large and capable enough to compete against many 205-pound fighters and still able to make the 185-pound middleweight limit and compete effectively against the middleweights.
Dolidze, a baker by profession, is a very capable grappler. His size/strength make him a force at the middleweight level, and his striking is power-based. Cardio? Well, Dolidze can struggle with his gas tank late in fights, especially at the middleweight level, where cutting all that weight can manifest itself in a negative fashion.
In this fight, Dolidze will attempt to bully Hernandez, back him up and force himself and his will on the slighter, fleeter-footed athlete. Ideally, Dolidze is able to corner Hernandez and then unleash a barrage of power body shots, elbows, and knees to the body. This is his path to the upset.
Dolidze will/should choose to work the body to take away his opponent’s ability to move. Should he be successful, the fight will transition in his favor. He is heavy-handed, aggressive and can finish any fighter in the division.
In Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez, Dolidze has drawn one capable cardio machine. Hernandez will be giving away size, height and reach to Dolidze, so a standing battle surely favors the opponent. However, Hernandez has deft footwork, solid striking acumen, and world-class grappling and an unending ability to compete at a frenetic pace for seven rounds, let alone the scheduled five rounds for this main event. His unending cardio ability is unmatched in the division and perhaps in all of the top weight classes in the UFC.
Hernandez dominates Dolidze statistically. He overshadows him in significant strike differential, takedown ability, and takedown defense, so the Hernandez blueprint for success involves weathering a ferocious early 10-minute storm from the aggressive Dolidze, then dominating the hulking Georgian as the fight transpires past the first 10 minutes and into the ‘Fluffy’ zone.
Hernandez must apply constant movement to create striking angles while simultaneously using said movement to evade the incoming bull rushes from his opponent. Hernandez’s footwork, cardio and diversity of weaponry prepare him well for this test against a tough, durable fighter who does not possess the athleticism and cardio ability of Hernandez.
Hernandez’s diversity of attack, youth and cardio will be the foundation by which he wins this bout. I believe a late-round finish, either ground and pound or submission, is in the cards for this fight.
Total in this fight is 3.5 Rds. Under -115
Christian Rodriguez -230 vs. Andre Fili +210
Featherweight (145 pounds)
Andre ‘Touchy’ Fili is a decorated veteran of the UFC who has been in the organization for some 12 years with a compiled UFC record of 12-11-1.
Fili is long, tall, and quite experienced, but his experience, while an advantage in most fights, has taken Fili years to acquire. At the ripe fighting age of 35, Fili now finds himself groping to remain relevant and active in the UFC.
Fili will be the taller and longer athlete in this matchup, which he is used to. However, Fili’s height, once a great advantage to him when younger, actually costs him now as his quickness, speed and strike evasion have regressed, and ‘tall men’ often get caught with strikes because their chin is left open in frantic exchanges.
In Christian Rodriguez, we get an ascending fighter with speed, quickness, acute grappling acumen and striking prowess. While ‘CeeRod’ is not gifted with profuse power, he is highly athletic and quick. He has great feet, which allow him to maneuver freely into attack mode and quickly evade incoming shots.
Rodriguez’s last bout was a close decision loss to Melquizael Costa, in which there is no shame. Fili also dropped his last bout to Costa, but he was submitted in the first round.
While each fight is its own entity, the dramatic difference in result against Costa on top of Rodriguez being seven years younger and a fresher fighter, forces me to regard Rodriguez as being in a very desirable spot this Saturday against a name fighter in Fili, whose pelt will look quite handsome hanging from the Rodriguez mantle.
This week’s investment: A parlay
UFC Vegas 109 Best Bet: Rodriguez -230 parlay to Hernandez -320
1.15u to earn 1.02u
Total in this bout stands 2.5 Rds Over -220
Rodriguez is not overly powerful, but Fili has shown himself to be susceptible to the KO, so tread carefully with this total.
Friday midday PT, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Catch my final releases for this fight card at GambLou.com, tap the ‘Bout business tab to access. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights.
