UFC Vegas 112 Predictions:
UFC Vegas 112: Royval vs. Kape is the organization’s final event in 2026.
To date, favorites in the UFC stand 320-153-17 or 67%. The last couple of years have seen favorites in the UFC exceed the typical 63% +/- success rate. Are these higher-favorite results the new normal, or will we eventually see some reversal from underdogs?
This week’s event will take place at the UFC APEX facility, which uses the smaller 25-foot octagon and hosts so few live attendees. There are twelve scheduled bouts, five of which will take place at the higher weight limits (welterweight to heavyweight).
There are seven fights in which the age difference between fighters is five years or more. We understand the great win advantage of being six years younger (62%) provides youthful athletes.
This final fight card is populated with athletes arriving with diverse fighting styles, yet many of the personalities comprising the event are lesser-known names. No matter the fighter’s popularity, all are working diligently to catch lightning in a bottle based on the outcomes of these battles.
Manel Kape -300 vs. Brandon Royval +255
Flyweight (125 pounds) main event
We last watched Brandon Royval lose an ultra-close decision in a battle with the now champion of the flyweight division, Joshua Van, this past June.
Royval, a black belt in BJJ, trains at Colorado’s elevation. He’s unusually tall, long for this division, and his fight weaponry allows him to compete effectively anywhere a fight takes place.
7-4 in the UFC, Royval, versed with Muay Thai striking acumen, has competed and defeated several elite flyweights. He has lost only to Brandon Moreno, a former champion, Van, the current flyweight champion, and Alexandre Pantoja, another former flyweight champion.
Royval, who sports a gangly, long physique, is looking to bounce off that loss to Van and defeat Kape, who arrives to this fight steeped with potential yet burdened by the inability to make weight consistently.
Angola’s Manel Kape is, in fact, a freak athlete. He is extremely athletic, unusually deft, and adroit on his feet; his hands are lightning-fast, and he delivers strikes with explosive power and extreme precision.
Kape stands 7-3 in the UFC with losses to Matheus Nicolau, former champion Pantoja, and former UFC athlete Muhammad Mokaev, a wrestling-based fighter.
It’s my judgment that the class of this division is a focused, motivated Manel Kape. Still, any attempt to understand Kape’s mentality/drive/focus prior to any fight he undertakes seems folly. He is famous for toying with adversaries and losing focus in the heat of battle, which manifests itself in dud performances like the loss he incurred to Nicolau or one-sided decision victories.
In this fight, Kape will own advantages in speed, quickness, footwork, striking accuracy, power, and youth, but his adversary Royval will hold height, reach, and grappling advantages over the nimble knockout artist.
Trying to determine the motivation and preparedness of Manel Kape is no easy task. One would imagine that he would show up to all fights prepared and ready to fire, yet on occasion, he plays with his food, remains less than active, seems distracted, and can be dominated by formidable wrestling-based athletes (see Mokaev).
Once the bell for this fight chimes, I look for Royval to try to engage Kape and bring him into Royval’s world, which is on the ground for a roll. Clasping onto Kape will be Royval’s best ally as he must discourage any form of stand-up battle with the more powerful, faster, and skilled striker.
Provided he can find himself in the clasp or clinch with Kape, Royval will then look to control Kape with his Jiu-Jitsu. He should be able to ground Kape. He will immediately hold advantage, as he looks to take the Angolan’s back, then choke him out.
Kape will need to find a way to cut the cage on Royval, a nimble yet awkward athlete himself, then force him against the fence, where he may unleash a barrage of knees, damaging fists, and elbows, but Kape must remain diligent in not allowing Royval to clasp onto him.
These two are both left-handed athletes, which will add complexity and potentially awkwardness to this fight, especially when it comes to leg kicking.
Each man has prepared for and competed in main events, so the five-round nature of this fight plus the experience of each man sets this battle up to be a fairly one-sided affair should Kape come with urgency, focus and determination, which fans cannot always count on.
At the end of the day, we know what we will get from Royval, but it is difficult to predict the mentality of Kape.
Should he come ready, willing, and able to fire, he should easily dominate Royval and live up to the price he carries on this fight. However, should he be distracted, then Royval may have a tremendous opportunity to utilize his BJJ and make this a highly competitive fight despite the heavy price on Kape.
Again, should Kape come motivated and prepared to fire, this is a one-sided result.
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds. Over -150
Melquizael Costa -110 vs. Morgan Charriere -110
Featherweight (145 pounds)
This fight card has several legitimate favorites in well-placed spots. One fight that is priced as a coin flip is this highly competitive featherweight barnburner.
Costa, a Brazilian, enters this fray with a very well-rounded skill set. Fighting out of Chute Boxe in Brazil, Costa brings effective striking, as evidenced by his +1.35 significant strike ratio per five minutes of fight time, and solid grappling in this most competitive fight.
Costa, who arrives off four straight wins since a loss to current eighth-ranked Stevie Garcia in 2023, has competed against fighters that are not quite top-15 forces in the division but were worthy of delivering Costa into this most important bout.
French pugilist Morgan Charriere arrives to this confrontation as well-rounded in fight weaponry as his opponent Costa. However, Charriere has been in the cage competing against a more formidable array of opponents.
At 3-2 in the UFC, Charriere has competed against a higher class of athlete than Costa has. In his two losses, he has competed brilliantly and competitively against both Chepe Mariscal in a decision that went against Charriere but should not have, and then Englishman Nathaniel Wood, a top fifteen featherweight in my judgment.
Costa stands a few inches taller than Charriere. He will sport a two-inch reach advantage, which should give him an edge while this fight is on the feet. That said, Charriere’s footwork, his solid wrestling pedigree, and his quickness, explosive striking, and athleticism are what make the difference between these two fighters.
This battle will be competitive anywhere it transitions; I look for Charriere, who opened -155 in this matchup, to hold advantages in level of competition faced, athleticism, and dynamic fighting ability.
The total in this fight stands 2.5 Rds Over -210, which further highlights the competitive nature of this bout.
Charriere opened -150 in this battle. He has faced more dangerous competition than Costa has and arrives off the momentum of an impressive victory over Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr in Landwehr’s home state of Tennessee.
The opening number was a more accurate depiction of how this fight will transpire than the current pricing, and for that reason, I’ll release this best bet.
UFC Vegas 112: Morgan Charriere -110 1u
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -210
Beginning in 2026, the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available across all podcast platforms! This column returns January 23 to break down UFC 324 Gaethje vs. Pimlett. Thank you for reading. and enjoy the final UFC event of 2025!
