UFC Vegas 113 Predictions:
After two numbered events, the UFC returns to its ‘Meta APEX’ facility for this week’s UFC Fight Night Bautista vs. Oliveira.
This event is currently scheduled for 13 fights, to be held in the smaller 25-foot octagon and in front of more attendees than the APEX previously hosted, as the facility and seating have been expanded.
There are but four fighters from the states populating this highly international fight card, and there are five bouts where the combatants will be welterweight (170 pounds) and above. Large men in the less spacious cage employed by the APEX may provide viewers with an abundance of violent action.
Last week, my release of Torrez Finney went down in flames, making the digital results thus far in 2026: 0-2, -2.0 units. It’s time to get on the good foot!
Mario Bautista -190 vs. Vinicius Oliveira +165
Bantamweight (135 pounds) main event
Eleventh-ranked bantamweight Oliveira, known as ‘Lok Dog,’ is a highly athletic 30-year-old Brazilian mixed martial artist. His fight base is comprised of BJJ with a highly effective power striking/kicking arsenal as a supplement.
Oliveira’s speed, quickness, and lightning-fast striking acumen are foundational to his success as he has realized a 4-0 start to his UFC career. While able to grapple, Oliveira’s forte is the finish, as he’s KO’d 16 of his 23 professional opponents with a couple of submission wins sprinkled in.
In each UFC bout thus far in his career, Oliveira has stepped up against ascending competition. He has achieved a perfect 4-0 record with one finish, his debut, and three decision victories, which highlights that the level of competition he is facing is becoming sterner.
Oliveira’s opponent for this fight is the eighth-ranked fighter in the division, Mario Bautista. We last saw Bautista clash with current number two-ranked Bantamweight Umar Nurmagomedov in a highly competitive fight, in which Bautista forced the action and made Nurmagomedov fight for a full 15 minutes. Most adversaries run from Nurmagomedov, but Bautista took the fight right to him!
Bautista is the quiet man. He allows his fighting in the cage to do his talking for him. Coming into this fight off a loss should also provide Bautista with certain focus and fortitude, as he had rattled off eight straight UFC wins against talented competition prior to the Nurmagomedov setback.
Bautista has a solid wrestling base, a black belt in BJJ under head coach John Crouch, and highly advanced boxing acumen. While maybe not as slick, quick, dynamic, or flashy as his opponent, Bautista has been in the cage with many more skilled, decorated, and dangerous adversaries than Oliveira.
Once this fight begins, fans will watch Oliveira attempt to use his athleticism and unorthodox striking to unleash looping, wide power shots at Bautista. Oliveira will use speed early in his striking combinations, but he always finishes his flurries with profusely powerful hooks and crosses. This makes ‘Lok Dog’ a most challenging adversary.
For Bautista, he will be like the tortoise chasing the hare in that he will be the more stoic, determined, forward pressing, cutting off the cage athlete who will try to maneuver Oliveira against the fence, eliminate his space, then open up by inflicting damage on the less experienced yet powerful Brazilian.
Where Oliveria needs space, Bautista will strive to eliminate it.
It’s highly probable that Bautista will utilize his developed wrestling acumen to clasp onto and then grind on Oliveira, haul him to the mat, and force him to expend his energy defending the wrestling as opposed to shucking and jiving in space while on his feet.
Bautista’s employment of the wrestling will serve two purposes. First, it will force the power striker to expend energy trying to escape from the takedowns. Second, that wrestling pressure will fatigue the Brazilian, leaving him less able to handle Bautista’s forceful forward pressure and diverse arsenal.
This will be a terrific clash of styles, but one where Bautista’s level of competition faced, his depth of experience, and well-rounded fight acumen should prove to be too much for ‘Lok Dog.’ The longer this fight goes, the more dominant Bautista and his unrelenting forward stalking pressure will become.
Bautista is simply too big a step up in class for the Brazilian at this stage of his career.
UFC Vegas 113 Best Bet: Mario Bautista -190
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -135
Strong lean under
Jailton Almeida -145 vs. Rizvan Kuniev +125
Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Russian athlete Rizvan Kuniev takes this, his sophomore bout in the UFC, against the sixth-ranked athlete in the division!
Kuniev is a finisher. He has earned eight of his twelve professional victories via finish, six via KO. Kuniev tips the scales at the 266-pound maximum weight. He is athletic for a large man, has profuse power in his hands, and, of course, being Dagestani, has a deep understanding of the wrestling game.
This is Kuniev’s second UFC bout. Based solely on his razor-close split decision loss in his first UFC fight to current number four-ranked Curtis Blaydes (a fight that could have been called either way), he seems well prepared to crash through the lower levels of modest UFC heavyweight talent and find himself in the top 10 of the rankings with a victory in this fight.
The immense challenge for Kuniev is that he faced a world-class American wrestler in Blaydes and now faces a world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist and athlete with freakish athleticism and power in every limb in Almeida.
Brazil’s Jailton Almeida is the division’s number six-ranked athlete. Where Kuniev flirts with the heavyweight limit of 265 pounds, the sculpted Almeida arrives to battle somewhat undersized, hitting the cage around 240 pounds.
Almeida is a black belt in BJJ. He has also had to compete in the UFC heavyweight division because no light heavyweight athletes (Almeida’s original weight class) would agree to enter the cage with him. So, in order to get fights, Almeida jumped to heavyweight, where he has accrued a 5-2 record against top-ranked heavyweight talent.
Almeida’s heavyweight losses were at the hands of fourth-ranked Blaydes. In his last bout, he lost a razor-close decision to number two-ranked Alexander Volkov. There is no shame in either of those losses.
Almeida’s athleticism, pure natural strength, cage savvy, and diverse fighting acumen allow him to compete effectively with the elite of the heavyweight division.
This dynamic clash of fighting styles and physical body types will be fascinating to watch. The adroit Almeida appears to be chiseled out of granite, where Kuniev appears lumpy and rotund.
Almeida is being tested in this battle against Kuniev, and the result will clarify for the UFC whether Jailton remains a top-six athlete in the division. For Kuniev, a victory against the highly dangerous and decorated Almeida means instant inclusion into the division’s top 10.
Precision against Power, might against slight may best describe how I handicap this fight. It is the speed, experience and level of competition that direct me to the Almeida side, not to mention Almeida’s finishing ability, for he has finished 20 of 21 professional foes.
Almeida opened -550 for this fight, a ridiculous number. He stands currently -145. I call that a bargain.
UFC Vegas 113 Best Bet: Jailton Almeida -145
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Over -160
Strong lean over. Consider Almeida via decision also.
Michał Oleksiejczuk -360 vs. Marc-Andre Barriault +295
Middleweight (185 pounds)
Michal O is a polished Polish striker who is largely ineffective in grappling and wrestling. However, presented with any adversary that will accommodate him in a stand-up, striking duel, Michal O often shines.
Oleksiejczuk competed originally as an undersized light heavyweight until transitioning into the middleweight division, where he has shown great aptitude against striking-based fighters.
After dropping three bouts in 2024, Michal O earned first-round finishes over two journeyman athletes last year, so he arrives at this confrontation brimming with confidence and advantages in power, footwork, and fight IQ.
In Canada’s Marc-Andre Barriault, we have a rank-and-file UFC athlete who is primarily a kickboxer, so Barriault arrives to the cage Saturday prepared to compete in a firefight striking match.
Barriault has 11 of 17 wins which have come via the knockout.
For this fight, the stage is set: two determined, diligent striking-based fighters are going to introduce themselves in the middle of the octagon and simply throw down until one man is left quivering on the canvas.
I expect Michal O to finish Barriault sometime in the first or second round of this battle, as Barriault’s lack of speed and defensive strike evasion will be the determining factors in this bout.
Michal O via finish is the lean here. However, those prices are not yet released.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Under -160
The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday morning across all podcast platforms. Catch it also at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
