UFC Vegas 114 Predictions:
UFC Vegas 114: Emmett vs. Vallejos will be held at the Meta APEX facility this Saturday afternoon. The card offers fight fans 14 scheduled battles in the smaller 25-foot octagon and in front of a quaint APEX crowd.
Four of the fights are comprised of fighters weighing 170 pounds or greater. Finish rates for fighters weighing 170 pounds and above are greater than those competing at 155 pounds and lower.
Only 10 of the 28 athletes are from the US, which means many of the athletes competing Saturday travel into Las Vegas from outside the U.S.
In six matchups, a domestic fighter has the advantage of competing against a fighter arriving from another country. That spells advantage for the domestic athlete.
Favorites continue their torrid 74% rate of winning after going 8-4 in last week’s UFC 236.
My release last week of Max Holloway was never in play, as he was dominated by the grappling of Charles Oliveira from the opening bell. That was a big miss, so I’ll react by trying to get back into the win column with this week’s release.
Kevin Vallejos -500 vs. Josh Emmett +410
Featherweight (145 pounds) main event
Vallejos is three fights deep into his UFC tenure, and they serve him up a grizzled veteran in Josh Emmett.
Vallejos is a switch-stanced fighter with tremendous quickness, speed, and power. The Argentinian athlete will be stepping up in class of opponent aggressively for his fourth UFC battle.
Vallejos is a forward-pressing, aggressive striker who has power emanating from every limb. He is fast, adroit, and finitely focused on engaging opponents immediately for the wide-stanced throwdown that he has built his reputation on.
Of Vallejos’ 17 professional victories, he has scored finishes in 11 of them. His sole loss was to fighting nerd superstar Jean Silva, a fight he took the barking Silva to a decision on. There is great respect in that decision loss to Silva, who is one of the bottom-line finishers in the whole of the UFC.
In Josh Emmett, we have a profusely powerful fighter who is uber-aggressive in walking down opponents to plant a wide stance, then hurling power hooks, crosses, knees, and elbows with the intent of maiming his adversary, finishing them off in violent fashion.
Emmett’s got 25 professional bouts and 19 wins. He has finished opponents in nine of his 19 victories, but one must review his body of work to understand that Emmett has been in with the division’s elite for almost a decade.
At 41, Emmett is on the downside of his career, as evidenced by the fact that since 2023, Emmett has dropped four of five fights, with the sole victory being against Bryce Mitchell in a KO that will live in infamy.
The foundational aspect to this fight is age. Vallejos is 24, and Emmett is 41!
Vallejos’ youth advantage in this fight compensates for the vast advantage that Emmett holds in experience and level of competition faced, but not so far as to make Vallejos the obtusely priced favorite that he is currently.
This fight is designed to be a changing of the guard fight. The UFC wants younger, hungrier athletes to do their work of retiring the older set of fighters whose compensation is situated well above the average athlete on the roster.
While Vallejos should be given the title of favorite in this fight, his price is inflated despite the advantages that revolve around his youth, speed, and violent finishing ability.
In this battle, Vallejos must be respectful of Emmett’s power, might, and will. Emmett is going to fight like a mother pitbull protecting her young while backed into the corner of the alley.
This is one dangerous spot for Kevin Vallejos, especially at a price I handicap to be double what it should be.
UFC Vegas 114 Best Bet: Josh Emmett +410 .50u
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds Pick ’em
Jose Delgado -300 vs. Andre Fili +265
Featherweight (145 pounds)
Andre ‘Touchy’ Fili is an American mixed martial artist who has compiled a 13-11 record fighting with the UFC since 2013.
Fili’s upbringing and home life were rough. At an early age, he found the professionals at Team Alpha Male who took Fili in, then transitioned him from a frustrated individual from a broken home to a successful, proud mixed martial arts athlete over the course of some 15-plus years.
Physically, Fili is long and tall, and he does possess great cardio, which allows him to win fights from attrition, often outlasting opponents on his way to a decision. Well-versed as a fighter but not overly powerful or deft afoot any longer, Fili resorts now to planting and throwing.
Agility, speed, and precision are not terms often used to describe 35-year-old featherweight fighters, as Fili is, but he is crafty, beguiling, and is able to lure the younger, more inexperienced fighter into the pocket where Fili may often hold advantage.
In Jose Delgado, we have a fighter arriving at the APEX after his first UFC defeat. That loss to Nathaniel Wood in his most recent fight saw 16 of 18 press professionals sitting cageside score that fight for Delgado. Despite that, I believe the decision was correct.
From every angle of this matchup, it appears that Delgado is being gifted a welcome-back fight. He is taller than Fili despite having a one-inch reach disadvantage, but he is also 27 and eight years younger than Fili.
Delgado’s speed, deft footwork, natural power, and focus coming off that loss together force me to believe that this is a terrible spot for the 35-year-old Fili.
UFC Vegas 114 Best Bet: Jose Delgado -300
Fight props are not yet released. However, I will make this release now and accept whatever the price is once it is published:
UFC Vegas 114 Best Bet: Jose Delgado KO/Sub or DQ
Price to be determined once released: 1u
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Under -185
Vitor Petrino -250 vs. Steve Asplund +200
Heavyweight (265 pounds)
This fight is the epitome of ‘styles make fights,’ but also of ‘don’t judge the book by the cover!’
In newly turned heavyweight, Brazilian Vitor Petrino, we have a human specimen that looks chiseled out of marble. Petrino is musclebound and versed in Sanda and Chinese boxing.
He is not particularly quick, fast, or light on his feet, despite the fact that he spent time at the light heavyweight division. In fact, it is his muscular frame and his body mass that, after a round of frenetic competition, can sometimes sap him of his energy.
This move to heavyweight has seen Petrino beat two journeymen lower-level athletes in a division where talent is lacking throughout.
Steven Asplund is a fighter from Minnesota who has a compelling story. Once over 500 pounds, Asplund’s skin hangs off his frame, and he looks quite the opposite of Petrino.
Where Petrino has trained in the martial arts, Asplund comes from the street, and his fighting style reflects it. He is a huge man with unusual athleticism, but more than any physical trait, what Asplund has is a mean streak a mile wide and a deep-down belief that he can do anything he sets his mind to.
In a coming out party, I believe Asplund weathers a furious first round, then in rounds two and beyond takes this fight from Petrino.
UFC Vegas 114 Best Bet: Steven Asplund +200 1u
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Over -175
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