UFC Fight Night Picks & Predictions
VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess has some strong takes on the UFC Vegas 92 card and put pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts on every fight on the docket.
UFC Odds | UFC Betting Splits | Lou Finocchiaro’s article
BET HISTORY
UFC St. Louis: 3-5, (-2 Units, -21.76%)
Article History: 39-40 (+6.09 Units, +7.00%)
PICK’EM HISTORY
UFC St Louis: 7-5 (58.33%)
Article History: 74-54 (57.81%)
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MAIN EVENT:
Edson “Junior” Barboza (+124) versus Lerone “The Miracle” Murphy (-148)
Over 3.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 3.5 (+124)
Barboza has fought 29 times in the UFC and put together an 18-11 record in his 13 years in the organization. He has fought for a lightweight championship and six of his past opponents had or would fight for a UFC Championship. His resume as a 155-pound lightweight is near as good as it gets in the division. Since moving down in weight to the 145-pound bantamweight division, he has changed roles from contender to gatekeeper and keeps surprising MMA fans with how much he has left in the tank. He has a 4-3 record at bantamweight in the UFC, and has a 3-1 record in the division as an underdog. He is now 38 years old, far over the key age of 35 and he has a ton of wear on his body (4 losses via KO, two via submission). That said, he still has power (2 KOs in his last three wins), he still can throw volume (164 significant strikes landed in his last 5 round fight), and he is still is evolving (3 takedowns landed in his last fight, first time in his career hitting that number).
Murphy is 13-0-1 and 5-0-1 in the UFC. He was an underdog in his first two UFC fights (1-0-1 record) and has been the favorite in his subsequent three fights. He has seven career KO victories, two have come in the UFC (vs Makwan Amirkhani – no longer in UFC). It is also debatable if he should still have his 0-loss record intact. Two fights ago he fought on the UFC 286 undercard vs. Gabriel Santos and most believe he was on the receiving end of friendly hometown judging. MMADecisions has media scorecards for that fight reported from 19 journalists, 17 of their scorecards give Murphy the L. I also thought Murphy lost that fight. As an English fighter, it is a big surprise that he never fought in the UK’s top MMA organization, Cage Warriors. Instead he cut his teeth in lower tier promotions.
I am not impressed with Murphy’s resume, but that does not mean he has not done anything impressive in the UFC. His second fight in the organization was versus veteran Ricardo Ramos, he found the KO in the first round. In his last fight, he was taking on the very tough Josh Culibao, and actually landed three takedowns over three rounds and attempted two submissions on his way to a unanimous decision. That said, I am not ready to give up on Barboza versus this tier of opponent. Maybe Murphy is better than I think, but he needs to do it versus an opponent like Barboza before I will believe it.
Fight Winner: Edson Barboza
Bet: Edson Barboza to Win (+124) vs Lerone Murphy, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.24
Lerone Murphy Under 91.5 significant strikes landed. Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
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Co-Main Event:
Carlston “MOÇAMBIQUE” Harris (+100) vs Khaos “THE OXFIGHTER” Williams (-120)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+135) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-175)
Williams has gone to a split decision in his last two fights, winning his most recent bout vs. Rolando Bedoya, and losing to Randy Brown. He is 5-2 at the UFC level and 14-3 overall. He got his shot in the UFC as a late replacement opponent for Alex Morono, and won as a +300 underdog via KO just 27 seconds into the first round. He then fought Abdul Razak Alhassan as a +175 underdog and took his time finding this finish, this time waiting until 30 seconds into the first round to get the KO. With such dominant victories, he was a slight favorite versus Michel Pereira and lost via decision. Since his first UFC defeat, three of his four fights have gone to decision. He is an extremely tough fighter and has never lost inside the distance. He puts on a solid pace, landing 5.77 significant strikes per minute, but his defense leaves a lot to be desired as 58% of his opponents strikes find their target.
Harris had a bit of a softer landing spot in the UFC than Williams, at least in his first fight. He fought Christian Aguilera as a -195 favorite and won via anaconda choke. He then took on Impa Kasanganay as a slight underdog and won via KO. After that, he was a big underdog vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov and lost via KO. His best win in the organization was versus Jeremiah Wells, a fight in which he had to withstand a flurry of strikes before once again finding an anaconda choke in the third round. Overall, he is 19-5 and 4-1 in the UFC. Williams is a more accurate striker than Williams, but lands much less volume, just 2.93 significant strikes per minute. He has vastly better striking defense, and is a good grappler. He averages 2.05 takedowns per fight.
These are both veteran fighters who have vastly different styles. Williams is the better striker, but Harris has good striking defense. Harris is a better grappler, but Williams has excellent takedown defense as he has only been taken down in one of his seven UFC fights. I foresee a long feeling out period and both fighters playing it safe because they respect their opponent’s capabilities.
Fight Winner: Carlston Harris
Bet: Fight to Start Round 3 (+100), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
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Ramiz Brahimaj (+124) vs Themba “The Answer” Gorimbo (-148)
Over 1.5 (-165) | Under 1.5 (+130)
Both of these fighters want to grapple, find takedowns, and slip in submissions. Gorimbo is the more dangerous striker and will have a five-inch reach advantage. Gorimbo has gotten into trouble in the past being caught in submissions when recklessly wrestling and he knows that Brahimaj will be quick to throw in the choke if given the opportunity. The cleanest path to victory for Gorimbo is to avoid wrestling exchanges and win the fight on the feet with his range. Brahimaj’s best chance is to catch Gorimbo in transition while wrestling; 100% of his 10 career wins are via submission, and three of his four losses have gone the distance. Gorimbo is 12-4 with victories via KO (2x), submission (6x), and decision (4x).
Fight Winner: Themba Gorimbo
Bet: Pass
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Adrian Yanez (-425) vs Vinicius “Fenômeno” Salvador (+330)
Over 1.5 (-160) | Under 1.5 (+124)
Yanez was one of the fastest rising prospects in the UFC. He won in Contender Series via 1st round KO, then won five UFC fights in a row, with four of those victories coming via KO. He was given a chance to step up in competition in his last two fights, and he was humbled with KOs from Rob Font and Jonathan Martinez. His aggressive striking style was punished by other strikers more adept at avoiding getting hit. As evidenced by the betting odds, this fight should be a great opportunity to get back on the winning track.
Salvador is moving up from flyweight (125 pounds) up to bantamweight (135 pounds) after missing weight in his previous trip to the octagon. He won in Contender Series via KO, but has lost his last two fights via decision. In 20 career fights, 85% of his trips to the octagon have ended before judges’ scorecards were read. Salvador was too big for his past division, and this fight is perhaps a chance for him to show his true capabilities. That said, his pre-UFC record is quite interesting, when he was 9-3 he KO’d a 0-0 fighter; when he was 10-4 he fought a 0-0 fighter, and when he was 12-4 he again fought a 0-0 fighter. Fighting those types of opponents when you are deep into your professional career are for one reason, to pad stats.
Fight Winner: Adrian Yanez
Bet: Adrian Yanez to Win via KO (-125), Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
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Angela “Overkill” Hill (-148) vs Luana Pinheiro (+124)
Over 2.5 (-445) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+310)
Hill is willing to fight anyone in the women’s strawweight division anytime, anyplace, sometimes to her detriment. She has an 11-13 record in the UFC, and her last 11 fights have gone the distance. She has been an underdog in her last seven fights and has a 3-4 record, however she has won three of her last four, including a 120-pound catchweight bout vs. Loopy Godinez that Hill won via Decision.
Pinheiro is 11-2 overall and 3-1 in the UFC. has eight wins inside the distance, but I would be very surprised if she is the first woman to get a finish vs. Hill since 2019. She will attempt a lot of takedowns, but I’m not sure she will be able to successfully complete them versus Hill. That said, she still is improving in her career despite losing via KO to Amanda Ribas in her last bout.
Fight Winner: Luana Pinheiro
Bet: Parlay, see below
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Tom “Big Train” Nolan (-440) versus Victor “The Brick” Martinez (+340)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+130) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-166)
Nolan was humbled by Nikolas Motta in his UFC debut. He is 24 years old and has a 6-1 record after losing in Round 1 in January. The UFC still has faith in him as they are making him the featured prelim on this bout. He is a huge lightweight at 6’3” and has a 73” reach. Four of his six wins are via KO.
Martinez was KO’d in his UFC debut vs. Jordan Leavitt after winning a Contender Series bout via decision. He is 13-5 overall and has eight wins via KO, five via decision.
This figures to be a standup fight which will favor Nolan. That said, these odds are too long for my liking.
Fight Winner: Tom Nolan
Bet: Pass
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Oumar Sy (-500) vs Tuco Tokkos (+380)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+124) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-160)
Both of these fighters are making their UFC debuts and were afforded their spots without having to cut their teeth in Contender Series. Adding further intrigue to the fight is the fact that initially Sy was supposed to fight power puncher Rodolfo Bellato, but that fight was scrapped and replaced with a match with Antonio Tricoli. Tuesday morning it was announced Tricoli was out, and the NEW replacement opponent is Tokkos. Sy is a 9-0 fighter with seven wins inside the distance.
Tokkos is 10-3 and has fought in promotions all over the globe, from Fury FC to Shooto Brazil to Bellator’s card in London. This situation is not ideal, but if I can borrow a poker term, “all you need is a chip and chair.” He has six wins via KO, two via submission, and two via decision. His losses are 2 KOs and 1 decision loss.
Fight Winner: Oumar Sy
Bet: Pass
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Tamires “Tratora” Vidal (+260) vs Melissa Gatto (-325)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-150) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+120)
Vidal is 7-2 and 1-1 in the UFC. She won her UFC debut via 1st round flying knee to put the division on notice. Then she lost her follow up fight as -250 favorite versus UFC newcomer Montserrat Rendon. Early in her career, she lost to Karol Rosa who is now also in the UFC. She also fought Allin Perez on the regional scene; Vidal was given the win due to Perez fouling with illegal knees. She is only 25 years old and has potential, but overall she is very green.
Gatto is 8-2-2 and 2-2 in the UFC. She won her first two UFC fights, but when she leveled up and faced Tracy Cortes and Ariane Lipski in successive bouts she was handed losses on the scorecard. She also fought Karol Rosa on the regional scene and won via decision.
Gatto’s body of work is superior to what Vidal has accomplished in her fledgling career. But there are a few other variables to consider; Vidal was expected to fight Haley Cowan on this card, but an injury led to Gatto stepping in on about three weeks’ notice. This fight is at 135 pounds, Gatto last fought in the Bantamweight division in 2018, and has since been a flyweight.
Fight Winner: Melissa Gatto
Bet: Pass
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Abus Magomedov (-265) vs Warlley Alves (+215)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-130)
Magomedov’s biggest moment in the UFC unfortunately was not a good one. In his second trip to the octagon, he was a short underdog versus Sean Strickland. He came out hard and fast, gassed out, and was finished in the second round. Before that, he had a highlight reel KO of Dustin Stoltzfus 19 seconds into the first round. After the Strickland fight the UFC did not do him any favors, he was matched up with Caio Borralho and lost via decision. He is a well traveled fighter who made it to the PFL middleweight championship in 2018, and overall has a 25-6-1 record.
Alves has 15 fights in the UFC and an 8-7 record. Things have really taken a turn as of late as he has lost three fights in a row, four of his last five, and five of his last seven. He started his UFC career in the 170 pound welterweight division, but moved up 185 pounds as a replacement fighter versus Ikram Aliskerov on the UFC 294 card. He was knocked out in the first round. Now he has had a full camp to prepare to fight at middleweight. He will still be the smaller fighter (3 inches in both height and reach) but he at least had time to put on good weight.
Fight Winner: Warlley Alves
Bet: Warlley Alves To Win (+215) vs. Abus Magomedov, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.15
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Piera “La Fiera” Rodriguez (-218) vs Ariane “Sorriso” Carnelossi (+180)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-250) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+190)
Rodriguez is 9-1 and 2-1 in the UFC. Both of her UFC wins, and her Contender Series bout, have gone to decision. She lost a year ago via armbar to Gillian Robertson. As a pro, she has five knockout victories which is impressive for a strawweight, however all of those came in lesser organizations so take the number with a grain of salt.
Carnelossi is 14-3 and 2-2 in the UFC. She has been the favorite in three of her fights. She has nine KO victories, and two more via submission giving her a very impressive finish rate for the division. Additionally, both of her UFC victories have come inside the distance. Prior to joining the UFC, she fought three opponents who would end up in MMA’s top promotion, she lost to Amanda Ribas in her professional debut, beat Bruna Brasil in the follow up fight, and KO’d Ketlen Souza with a body kick before being a shot to take the UFC stage.
DraftKings opened Rodriguez as a -192 favorite and Carnellosi as a +160 dog. Money has pushed Rodriguez up to -218, Carnelossi is now +180. If Piera can get this fight to the ground, she is likely to be able to control it from there, but Carnelossi has a puncher’s chance.
Fight Winner: Piera Rodriguez
Bet: Fight Does Not Go the Distance (+165), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.65
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Heili “The Mongolian Knight” Alateng (+130) vs Kleydson “KR” Rodrigues (-155)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-220) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+170)
Alatengheili has a 4-2-1 record in the UFC and a 16-9-2 record as a professional. Six out of his seven UFC fights have gone the distance. He is 4-0-1 as a UFC favorite. When he has been an underdog in his UFC career, it has been a significant number; +235 vs Chris Gutierrez, and +310 vs Casey Kenney. His striking defense numbers are a bit paradoxical, he has a 58% defense rate which is solid, however he still gets hit with over five significant strikes per minute in the octagon.
Rodrigues is 8-3 and 1-2 in the UFC. He lost his debut via split decision versus CJ Vergara as a -360 favorite, then got the first round KO vs. Shannon Ross as a -360 favorite once again. However he missed the 125-pound weight limit in this fight by a pound. He then was scheduled to face Tatsuro Taira, but came in three pounds overweight and the bout was scrapped. After that he moved up to 135 pounds, and lost via submission to Farid Basharat. He is fighting up at 135 once again. He is more of a striker than wrestler with half of his wins coming via KO. However, up a weight class it is yet to be seen if that power will translate.
Fight Winner: Alatengheili
Bet: Parlay, see below
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Emily “Gordinha” Ducote (-395) versus Vanessa “Lil Monster” Demopoulos (+310)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-500) | under 2.5 Rounds (+340)
Ducote has fought in three of the top four organizations for female fighters, the UFC, Bellator, and Invicta. She is 2-2 in the UFC and 13-8 overall. She was given her shot as a replacement opponent versus Jessica Penne and won the fight. She then lost to two of the higher paced fighters in the division, Loopy Godinez and Angela Hill, before getting back to winning vs. Ashley Yoder.
Vanessa Demopoulos is 4-2 in the UFC and 10-5 overall. She has been the underdog in five of her six UFC fights so she has definitely made the most of the opportunities afforded to her. Like Ducote, she got her shot as a late replacement fighter. In her last fight, she was a +250 underdog versus Kanako Murata and won via unanimous decision.
Fight Winner: Ducote
Bet: Parlay- Ducote vs. Demopoulos Goes Distance/Pinheiro vs Hill Goes Distance/Alatangheili vs Rodriguez over 1.5 Rounds (+104)
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Best Bets Recap
- Edson Barboza to Win (+124) vs Lerone Murphy, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.24
- Lerone Murphy u91.5 significant strikes landed (-115). Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
- Williams/Harris Fight to Start Round 3 (+100), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
- Adrian Yanez to Win via KO (-125), Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
- Warlley Alves To Win (+215) vs Abus Magomedov, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.15
- Rodriguez/Carnelossi Does Not Go the Distance (+165), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.65
- Ducote vsDemopoulos Goes Distance/Pinheiro vs Hill Goes Distance/Alatangheili vs Rodriguez over 1.5 Rounds (+104)
*ALL ODDS VIA DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK
