UFC Predictions:
VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess offers his UFC predictions for the Fight Night card and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts on every fight on the docket.
BET HISTORY
UFC Denver: 6-3 (+3.9 Units, 39.67% ROI)
Article History: 62-70 (+1.2 Units, 0.82% ROI)
UFC PREDICTION PICK ’EM HISTORY
UFC Denver: 6-5 (54.55%)
Article History: 119-90 (56.94%)
Amanda “Amandinha” Lemos (+110) vs. Virna “Carcara” Jandiroba (-130)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+135)
At 8-3 in the organization, Amanda Lemos has had a great UFC career. She fought Weili Zhang for the Women’s Strawweight Championship a year ago. She did not get her hand raised, but she did go 25 minutes in a fight that was not expected to go the distance. She is a unique figure in this division because she has legitimate knockout power, whereas her peers are more known for speed. She has landed more significant strikes than her opponent in eight of her eleven fights despite throwing significantly less volume than expected in this weight class. Five of her UFC wins have come inside the distance with three knockouts and two submissions. This will be her third main event fight and her fourth scheduled five-rounder. At age 37, she has seen it all and accomplished everything short of wearing the belt.
Virna Jandiroba has been disrespected far too many times in her nine-fight UFC career. She is coming in on a three-fight winning streak and was the underdog in the most recent two. She has been the underdog in five UFC fights but boasts a 6-3 octagon record. Her style isn’t necessarily the most aesthetically pleasing. She strikes to get into grappling positions, and from there, she is hard to beat. Half of her UFC wins have come inside the distance with two submissions and one knockout. She has never been finished as a professional. This will be the biggest stage she has fought on, as she has only been on the main card once in her UFC career, with the other eight fights coming on prelims. She has five-round fight experience in Invicta FC, but that is not even close to the amount of pressure that comes with headlining a UFC event that will be broadcast on ESPN.
Draftkings opened Jandiroba as a -142 favorite, I agree with the movement towards Lemos. This is a massive step up for Jandiroba and I do not think she has the gas tank to go five rounds, nor the striking defense needed to close the distance on Lemos without getting physically compromised first. Additionally, I concede that Lemos is an old fighter, but Jandiroba is no spring chicken at age 36. If Lemos can keep the distance in this fight for at least three of the five rounds, she should win, and don’t rule out the possibility of her finding a knockout.
UFC PREDICTION FIGHT WINNER: Amanda Lemos
BET: Amanda Lemos (+110) vs Jandiroba, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
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Steve “Mean Machine” Garcia (-155) vs. Seung Woo “Sting” Choi (+130)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+135) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-175)
Steve Garcia easily could have had an NFL (not for long) UFC career if he had not defeated Chase Hooper as a +245 underdog two years ago. At that point, he was 1-2 in the organization, with his one win coming against an opponent less than UFC caliber. But he knocked out Hooper, and has knocked out his two subsequent opponents, also an underdog in both of those fights. As a pro fighter, Garcia is 15-5 and 4-2 in the UFC. Two out of his three pre-UFC losses came to fighters who would eventually get a shot in the octagon, and the third fighter, Joe Warren, had a 20-fight Bellator career. This illustrates the fact that Steve Garcia has been squaring off with very good competition for a long time. In his last fight in LFA before coming to the UFC, he defeated Chepe Mariscal, who is now 3-0 in the UFC. He brings the violence every time he steps in the cage and has not seen the judges scorecards since his UFC debut, and 12 of his professional victories have come via knockout.
Seung Woo Choi has been on the UFC roster since 2019 and has a 4-5 record. Over half of his fights in the organization have gone the distance, meaning his usual fight script contrasts Steve Garcia’s in a major way. In the UFC, Choi has seen tougher competition than Garcia, but his results have also been worse. Three of his losses have come as a favorite of -180 or greater and he has won as a UFC underdog just once. On paper, he is going to be in deep trouble versus Garcia in the striking department as he lands nearly 1.5 less significant strikes less per minute and also gets hit more.
This feels like a very cheap price on Garcia. Choi is hanging onto his UFC roster spot by a thread, and Garcia should cut that thread early in this fight.
UFC PREDICTION FIGHT WINNER: Steve Garcia
BET: Steve Garcia via KO (+110) vs Choi, Risk 1 Unit to win 1.1
Parlay Piece, see below
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Kurt “The Hurt” Holobaugh (+114) vs. Kaynan “Bahia” Kruschewsky (-135)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+105) | Under Rounds (-135)
Kurt Holobaugh is running out of time to make a lasting impression in the UFC. This is his third stint in the organization, and he has a 1-5 record in official fights (he did win season 31 of The Ultimate Fighter). When things are clicking, he is very dangerous; 17 of his 20 professional wins have come inside the distance. He is truly a scrapper and is comfortable in wild exchanges both on the feet and on the ground. He struggles when he is overpowered by stronger grapplers.
Kaynan Kruschewsky had a tough start to his UFC career, a first-round KO loss to Elves Brenner. That said, he was a sizable underdog, and a devastating loss in a UFC debut isn’t necessarily always a sign of things to come. Kruschewsky is a grappling specialist; nine of his 15 pro victories have come via submission. Additionally he has a regional circuit win over Adriano Martins, the man most famous for knocking out a young Islam Makhachev at UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson.
Both fighters have shown a lot of striking aggression in the UFC but have also been hit a lot, as both have sub 50% significant strike defense rates. Kurt Holobaugh’s lackluster takedown defense may be the pivotal metric in this fight, but I’m not necessarily ready to give Kruschewsky’s grappling the benefit of the doubt, given his short sample vs. elite competition.
UFC PREDICTION FIGHT WINNER: Kurt Holobaugh
BET: Kurt Holobaugh (+114) vs Kruschewsky, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.14
Kurt Holobaugh via KO (+330) vs Kruschewsky, Risk 0.5 Units to Win 1.15
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Cody Durden (-102) vs. Bruno “Bulldog” Silva (-118)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-200) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+154)
Cody Durden wants to wrestle early and often. He has landed more takedowns than his opponent in seven of his nine UFC fights. He averages 4.84 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. When he wins, he looks like an elite folkstyle wrestler, and when he loses, it is usually to a submission due to getting reckless on the mat. Overall, he is 5-3-1 in the UFC, with one knockout victory and four via decision. All three of his UFC losses have come via submission.
Bruno Silva is 3-2, 1 NC in the UFC. The NC was a loss in the ring but overturned due to the opponent’s failed drug test. He lost his next two fights via decision but is now on a three-fight win streak, with all of them coming inside the distance. As a pro fighter, he is 13-5-2, 1 NC, and has a solid nearly 70% finish rate in wins, a commendable number for a flyweight. Despite being the more “exciting” fighter, there are very few places where Silva outshines Durden on paper. Despite being wrestling dominant, Durden has better striking volume and accuracy metrics among all significant strikes thrown. But Durden is also more accurate with distance significant head strikes landed, which is a bit surprising because Silva scored five knockdowns compared to Durden’s 1 in their respective UFC careers. However, I think Silva’s knockdowns are a bit overblown, considering he scored them versus three opponents with a combined 3-11 UFC record.
Silva opened at DraftKings as a -142 favorite. I am not with the market here. Durden will muck this fight up, if he avoids the hail mary he will cruise to victory.
UFC PREDICTION FIGHT WINNER: Cody Durden
BET: Cody Durden (-102) vs Silva, Risk 1.02 Units to Win 1
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Doo Ho “The Korean Superboy” Choi (+150) vs Bill “Señor Perfecto” Algeo (-180)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+135)
Doo Ho Choi burst onto the UFC scene with explosive fights back in 2014. He won his first three trips into the cage via KO in less than five minutes of COMBINED fight time. He was rising quickly in the organization and, as such, was booked against higher-profile opponents. Unfortunately, Choi’s style of throwing caution to the wind caught up with him, and he sustained three losses in a row versus Cub Swanson, Jeremy Stephens, and Charles Jourdain, with the last two being brutal knockouts. He was smart to take some time off to let the blunt trauma he absorbed heal, then had his comeback further delayed due to the pandemic and an additional injury. Last February, he finally returned to the octagon in a fight that went to a controversial draw versus Kyle Nelson (9/11 media scorecards on MMADecisions.com gave the fight to Choi, even after a bad point deduction by the ref). That is all to say there is a ton riding on this fight for Choi, “The Korean Superboy” is now a 33-year-old man, and he has not won a UFC fight since December 2019.
Bill Algeo is a true grinder who seemingly gets better as time elapses in the cage. To the eye, he is not all that impressive, but that hasn’t stopped him from defeating guys like Joanderson Brito and Alexander Hernandez, who pass the eye test with flying colors. That said Algeo is 5-4 in the UFC and has been very inconsistent in his performances, two of his four losses came as the betting favorite. Additionally, Algeo just hit the pivotal age of 35 which is usually a key indicator of a dropoff in ability for fighters in stacked divisions like Featherweight.
Overall I can see this fight ending through Choi’s hands early, or Algeo’s persistent striking and grappling late. Algeo took a lot of damage in his last fight, a KO loss to Kyle Nelson on March 30th. Despite the stoppage being controversial to some, the fact he was getting his clock cleaned is indisputable. Choi hits much harder than Nelson; if Algeo thinks he can let his opponent punch himself out, the fight is not going to go well for Señor Perfecto.
UFC PREDICTION FIGHT WINNER: Doo Ho Choi
Bet: Doo Ho Choi via KO (+400), Risk 1 Unit to Win 4
Choi/Algeo Fight Does Not Go The Distance (+115), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.15
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Jeong Yeong “The Korean Tiger” Lee (-185) vs. Hyder “The Hurricane” Amil (+154)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-130)
Jeong Yeong Lee is a Road to UFC alumni who is 20-0 since jumping to the official UFC roster. Overall, he is 11-1, with all of his pre-UFC experience coming in Road FC, based out of South Korea. Prior to joining the UFC, he was an equal opportunity finisher with four knockouts and three submissions, but both of his wins in the top MMA organization have come via judges’ scorecards.
Hyder Amil is a bit of a late bloomer. He is 9-0 as a pro and 34 years old. He has a 3-0 Bellator record, which he earned in his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th professional fights versus other inexperienced opponents. He won via decision in Contender Series and won via KO in his UFC debut as a +165 underdog vs. Fernie Garcia.
Jeong Yeong Lee is the rightful favorite in this matchup based on experience, reach, and age, but that said, there is still quite a bit of unknown on the Amil side. Additionally, Amil has backers in the market as Lee has gone from a -270 to -185 favorite at DraftKings.
UFC PREDICTION FIGHT WINNER: Jeong Yeong Lee
BET: Lee/Amil Fight Goes Distance (+120), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.2
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Brian “Boom” Kelleher (+170) vs. Cody “The Renegade” Gibson (-205)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-200) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+154)
This fight is hard to get excited about, considering the bantamweight division has so many elite and exciting fighters. Brian Kelleher and Cody Gibson are definitely NOT elite and exciting fighters. Brian Kelleher is 8-8 in the UFC, but somehow still finishing out a contract despite being on a three-fight losing streak, all inside the distance. Cody Gibson is a UFC retread on his second life in the organization after finishing runner-up in season 31 of The Ultimate Fighter. That said, he is 1-5 on the official UFC roster. As a pro, he is 19-10 with eight wins via decision, seven via KO, and four via submission. Both of his fights since returning to the Octagon have gone to decision. Overall, I am not overly enthused about this fight, but I believe Gibson will win via decision and is at little risk of losing in this matchup.
UFC PREDICTION FIGHT WINNER: Cody Gibson
BET: Parlay: Steve Garcia/Cody Gibson (+144), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.44
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Miranda “Fear The” Maverick (-225) vs. Dione “The Witch” Barbosa (+185)
Over 2.5 (-345) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+250)
Miranda Maverick is the other half of the bubblegum and duct-taped main event we saw in Denver last Saturday. Maverick was slated to fight Tracy Cortes, who was called into action versus Rose Namajunas, and as such Maverick stayed on this card but is now facing a new opponent. Maverick has a style not all that unlike another fighter who was on the Denver card, Jasmine Jasudavicius. Maverick is a strong flyweight and wins fights through her wrestling. She is 5-0 in the UFC when landing more takedowns than her opponent and wants to strike just enough to mask her grappling entries. Overall, she is 6-3 in the UFC and has been the favorite in eight of her nine UFC fights.
Dione Barbosa made her UFC debut in May at the UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg card. She won as a -225 favorite vs. Ernesta Kareckaite via a tightly contested decision. Overall, she is 7-2 as a professional, with both of her pre-UFC losses aging well (Jena Bishop, who is 3-1 in Bellator/PFL, and Josiane Nunes, who is 3-1 in the UFC).
Barbosa’s takedown defense should be the biggest indicator in how this fight goes. If she can stop Miranda’s attempts, or if she can threaten via submission in scrambles, she has a hot spot here. I am not ready to trust her versus a grapple of Maverick’s ability. I also do not trust Maverick as a decent-sized favorite in a fight that had so many moving parts in the lead-up.
UFC PREDICTION FIGHT WINNER: Miranda Maverick
BET: PASS
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Loik “The Tajik Tank” Radzhabov (-118) vs. Trey “Samurai Ghost” Ogden (-102)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-200) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+154)
Loik Radzhabov has a very fitting nickname. The dude is built like a brick sh… out house. He displays many of the attributes common among similar stout fighters: devastating power, forceful takedowns, and the ability to break free of his opponents’ grip with pure strength. He also displays some of the cons that come with being muscle-bound. He does not have great hand speed or head movement, he can slow down late in fights, and at times, he is looking for one big shot to end the fight instead of trying to score with fewer strikes when they are available.
Trey Ogden is also a big and ripped lightweight. He is not going to wow you with strikes or slick submissions. Instead, he usually just sticks to the basics and scores with strikes when he can but is more interested in securing the takedown. Then, when the opponent is down, he is all about position over submission. He wants to eat the clock from the top. It can be frustrating as a fan because it is not the most fun to watch, but when his takedowns are working, he is hard to beat. Daniel Zellhuber has a 15-1 record because Trey Ogden was constantly attempting takedowns and could never get his striking going when they squared off. Kurt Holobaugh’s newfound momentum after winning The Ultimate Fighter was stifled because Trey Ogden took him down three times and amassed 11:09 of control time in 15:00 minutes of fight time. All that said, Ogden is still 2-2, 1 NC in the UFC and there have been opponents who have found a way to solve his plodding style, Ignacio Bahamondes and Jordan Leavitt were able to mostly maintain distance and score with their striking.
This should be an extremely interesting fight to watch. I am not sure who’s grappling will win the day. In their UFC careers Radzhabov has been the much more accurate fighter when it comes to securing takedowns, however his takedown defense is considerably worse. On the feet, Ogden is ahead on paper, but Radzhabov is a much greater KO threat.
UFC PREDICTION FIGHT WINNER: Trey Ogden
BET: Trey Ogden (-102) vs Radzhabov, Risk 1.02 Units to Win 1
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Luana “Dread” Carolina (-112) vs. Lucie Pudilova (-108)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-345) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+250)
Luana Carolina has missed weight in two of her eight UFC fights, so it is worth noting that she came in under the Women’s Flyweight limit at 125.5 pounds on Friday. She is 5-3 in the UFC and currently riding a two-fight win streak. She has been the underdog in her last 7 fights and managed to go 4-3 in the span, so being a slight favorite is territory she hasn’t traversed in a long time. Overall she is a fairly active striker without a ton of power. She is not much of a ground grappler but is capable of controlling fights in the clinch.
Lucie Pudilova opened this fight as a -10 favorite at DraftKings, and the market has moved against her. The favorite status is a bit surprising; she is just 3-7 in her UFC career (this is her second stint in the organization). This go-around, she is 1-2 with a win and a loss as a favorite and another defeat as a +160 underdog.
Both fighters are near the bottom of the Women’s Flyweight roster, and it is possible that the loser of this fight will not be in the organization much longer. Pudilova very much needs this win to avoid the hot seat.
UFC PREDICTION FIGHT WINNER: Luana Carolina
BET: Pass
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Mohammed Usman (-118) vs. Thomas Peterson (-102)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+135)
Mohammed Usman is a strange heavyweight. He walks around at around 240 pounds, weighs in around 240 pounds, and fights at around 240 pounds. He has legitimate KO power and a good wrestling base, but when he is in the octagon, it seems like he is trying to do as little as possible to get the win while running out the clock. Maybe he doesn’t trust his gas tank, maybe he wants to prolong his career by avoiding damage, whatever it is he needs to do a lot more to endear himself to UFC fans. He won the Ultimate Fighter season 30 with a KO victory over Zac Pauga, but since then, he has won two decisions and lost another.
Thomas Peterson lost his UFC debut versus Jamal Pogues via decision. It was the first fight in his career that made it to the judges’ scorecards. Overall, he is 8-2, with his other loss coming via KO in LFA to Waldo Cortes-Acosta, which is a bit surprising because, like Usman, he is mostly a decision fighter. I fully expect this fight to be a bit of a slog early because Peterson will want to try to secure takedowns, and thus far, Usman has avoided being taken down in the cage (none of his opponents have officially attempted a takedown).
UFC PREDICTION FIGHT WINNER: Mohammed Usman
BET: Mohammed Usman (-118) vs Peterson, Risk 1.18 Units to Win 1
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BEST BETS RECAP
- Amanda Lemos (+110) vs Jandiroba, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
- Steve Garcia via KO (+110) vs Choi, Risk 1 Unit to win 1.1
- Kurt Holobaugh (+114) vs Kruschewsky, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.14
- Kurt Holobaugh via KO (+330) vs Kruschewsky, Risk 0.5 Units to Win 1.15
- Cody Durden (-102) vs Silva, Risk 1.02 Units to Win 1
- Doo Ho Choi via KO (+400), Risk 1 Unit to Win 4
- Choi/Algeo Fight Does Not Go The Distance (+115), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.15
- Lee/Amil Fight Goes Distance (+120), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.2
- Steve Garcia/Cody Gibson (+144), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.44
- Trey Ogden (-102) vs Radzhabov, Risk 1.02 Units to Win 1
- Mohammed Usman (-118) vs Peterson, Risk 1.18 Units to Win 1
