UFC Vegas 98 Royval vs. Taira: Best Bets, Odds and Predictions:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Vegas 98 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 2-6 (-3.83 Units, -43.42% ROI)
Article History: 88-131 (-28.27 Units, -11.68% ROI)
Since 2020: 640-595 (+189.88 Units, 11.38% ROI)
PICK EM HISTORY
Last Week: 7-5 (58.33%)
Article History: 186-142 (56.71%)
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Brandon “Rawdog” Royval (+240) vs Tatsuro Taira (-298)
Over 3.5 Rounds (-130) | Under 3.5 Rounds (+100)
Brandon Royval is a fan favorite because he is one of the most exciting fighters in the 125-pound flyweight division. He is eager to mix it up on the feet and fully commit to truly outside the box submissions. Additionally, his defense can be suspect, meaning that, win or lose, the odds are that he was in a very exciting fight. As a pro, he is 16-7 and 6-3 in the UFC. His strength of schedule is as good as it comes, with all three of his UFC losses coming to title belt holders Alexandre Pantoja (x2) and Brandon Moreno. In his most recent fight, he got revenge on Moreno, winning a split decision in late February. He has finished highly touted opponents, including Tim Elliott, Kai Kara-France, and Matheus Nicolau. Overall, his form is excellent, and he is 4-1 in his last five fights, with the one loss being a failed title bid in his rematch versus Pantoja.
As I alluded to earlier, Royval’s defense is a bit suspect. Over half of his opponents’ significant strikes land, and his takedown defense rate is just 40%. On average, he attempts at least one submission per 15 minutes in the cage despite landing less than half a takedown in that same time span. His offensive striking is a volume game. He lands 4.33 significant strikes per minute with a low accuracy rate of just 36%. With his strength of schedule, it is very difficult to put up gaudy numbers.
Tatsuro Taira is an undefeated 24-year-old who has looked amazing in the cage. He is 16-0, including 6-0 in the UFC, and has four finishes in the promotion. His grappling sets him apart as he is extremely aggressive in pursuing the finish when the fight hits the mat. His striking has improved over his last few fights. His opponents can’t simply focus on takedown defense. He was given his first main event billing on a fight night card in June, and he won via finish when an unconventional grappling exchange blew out his opponent’s knee. It is worth noting that Taira was down on the scorecard to veteran Alex Perez before the injury ended the fight.
On paper, Taira is a ridiculously efficient striker. He lands 3.56 significant strikes per minute at an eye-popping 65% accuracy rate. He benefits from opponents having to keep their hands low to be ready to defend takedowns and from landing free strikes when he controls his opponents in ground positions.
This fight has finish written all over it. Neither one of these guys is ever looking to grind out a decision, and when their fights go the distance, it is because of an opponent desperately trying to draw it out. Both fighters swing for the fences with reckless abandon. Both fighters chase the submission over position, and both guys have double-digit inside the distance victories. I like Taira to win, and I like this fight to finish early.
FIGHT WINNER: Tatsuro Taira
UFC VEGAS 98 BEST BET: Tatsuro Taira to Win Inside the Distance (+100), Risk 1 Unit to win 1
Under 3.5 Rounds (+100), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1
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Brad Tavares (+170) vs JunYong “The Iron Turtle” Park (-205)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-298) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+220)
Brad Tavares has been in the UFC since 2010. His 15-9 UFC record is impressive, but it is a bit concerning that he is only 1-3 in his last three fights. He lost to current 185-pound champ Dricus Du Plessis, which is understandable, but getting KO’d by Bruno Silva is a bit of a head-scratcher. He also lost to Gregory Rodriguez via KO, which is par for the course for any opponent tasked with facing Robocop. His only win since 2021 is versus Chris Weidman. It was not an impressive victory, and Chris Weidman is a decade past his prime.
But Tavares is still game and has won many more fights than he has lost. His takedown defense stands out at 81%. He held Chris Weidman to 0/8 and Dricus Du Plessis to 0/7, which is more evidence of his world-class takedown defense. His striking isn’t anything special. He has just two knockouts in the UFC, the most recent coming in 2018. His striking defense is still solid but has shown signs of slowing down in recent bouts. Tavares is also 36 and has been in more wars than most. It is safe to say he is not the fighter who was taking the cage by storm a decade ago.
JunYong Park will take the UFC cage for the 11th time in this clash versus Brad Tavares. He is 7-3 in the organization, with three wins via submission and four via decision. He was on a four-fight win streak before his last outing, which ended in a semi-controversial split decision loss to BJJ ace Andre Muniz. The Iron Turtle is an apt nickname for Park. He is methodical and tough, and he slowly breaks down his opponents, causing them to let their guard down before he makes his move (usually a rear naked choke) to end the fight.
I am a Park fan, but I am not a fan of him in this matchup. He has seen a much worse strength of schedule than Tavares in his 10-fight UFC career. I don’t think he will be able to trap Tavares against the cage, and I believe Tavares will win the striking battle.
FIGHT WINNER: Brad Tavares
UFC VEGAS 98 BEST BET: Brad Tavares (+170) vs Park, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.7
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Chidi “Bang Bang” Njokuani (-162) vs Jared “NiteTrain” Gooden (+136)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+140)
Chidi Njokuani has a unique UFC story. He had a 5-3 record in Bellator before getting his shot on the Contender Series. He had multiple main event billings in MMA’s second-biggest promotion but was on a two-fight losing streak. He is a highlight finisher and is easy to sell based on his highlight package. That said, he has been up and down in the UFC. He won in Contender Series via finish, as well as his first two official UFC bouts. But then he lost three in a row and was a favorite in two of those contests. He then rebounded with a split-decision win versus a very underpowered Rhys McKee. Njokouani’s first five fights in the UFC were at 185 pounds. His fight versus McKee was at 170 pounds, and this fight versus Gooden is also at 170 pounds. I know Njokuani does not like this weight cut, and he nearly gassed out in his last fight as a welterweight.
Jared Gooden is in his UFC encore. During the COVID era of UFC (2020-2021), he was 1-3. He went down to the regional scene and put together some wins versus solid competition and got a second chance. He lost as a late replacement opponent for Carlston Harris as a +240 underdog, but he rebounded and won via second-round submission as a +165 underdog versus Wellington Turman. Gooden is a very experienced fighter. He has a 23-9 record and 19 victories inside the distance. It should be noted that Gooden missed weight by 1.5 pounds ahead of this fight.
I was ready to bet on Gooden. Njokuani doesn’t like cutting down to this weight, and Gooden cannot afford to blow another UFC opportunity. Missing weight in his situation is a major red flag, and I assume it is health-related.
FIGHT WINNER: Chidi Njokuani
UFC VEGAS 98 BEST BET: Pass
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Grant “KGD” Dawson (-360) vs Rafa “Gifted” Garcia (+285)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-250) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+190)
Grant Dawson was surging towards the top of the UFC lightweight rankings but was humbled when Bobby Green ended his 12-fight unbeaten streak with a straight left 33 seconds into the first round of their main event clash. He responded nicely with a dominant decision win versus Joe Solecki. Dawson is a front-runner. He has never been an underdog, including his bout on Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2017. He is elite at picking opponents or perhaps is elite at saying no to fighting highly ranked competition. He is a good point striker and an excellent wrestler. He has a ton of career rear naked choke finishes, but generally speaking, he’s a position-over-submission fighter.
Rafa Garcia has not fought since April 2023, a decision win versus Clay Guida. He got his start as a late replacement opponent for Nasrat Haqparast and lost via decision, but he’s 4-2 since then in the Octagon. He has won two fights in a row and four of his last five. He is a bottom-of-the-roster guy who could jump the line with a win versus a guy like Grant Dawson, whose whole career is built on taking out the trash. But I am not rushing to back him, and I expect this fight to go long. Garcia has been known to mix in wrestling very well, and Dawson is used to being the more aggressive grappler. It will be interesting to see him face an opponent who is equally willing to take shots.
FIGHT WINNER: Grant Dawson
UFC VEGAS 98 BEST BET: Pass
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Daniel Rodriguez (-218) vs Alex Morono (+180)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+140)
Daniel Rodriguez is a striker and not much else. He lands over 7.4 significant strikes per minute in the cage. He also absorbs 5.52 the other way and is the epitome of a guy who is willing to eat shots to land some. He is not overly powerful and only has two knockouts in seven UFC victories. Moreover, he was a -200 favorite or greater in both fights. He is on a three-fight losing streak, including two losses inside the distance. Plus, he is 37 years old and far from his physical peak.
Alex Morono is a fighter’s fighter willing to mix things up both on the feet and the ground. He is in the “any opponent, any venue, any weight class” mold and has perhaps taken too many fights under less-than-ideal circumstances. He is 13-7, 1 NC in the UFC and 2-3 in his last five fights. I think he has more paths to victory than Rodriguez, but I am not certain he will be able to find them. This fight features two guys needing a win, and I’m not sure either will be able to separate from the other. If we hit the cards, all bets are off, and I am not interested in playing that game after the split decisions we saw at UFC 307…
FIGHT WINNER: Daniel Rodriguez
UFC VEGAS 98 BEST BET: Pass
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CJ Vergara (+270) vs Ramazan “Temurlan” Temirov (-340)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-195) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+150)
CJ Vergara is a game fighter and has a win in the UFC as a +275 underdog already on his resume. But he is likely to have some trouble versus a “newcomer” with the pedigree of Ramazan Temirov. Vergara is an active striker, as is expected in the flyweight division. He is not much of a wrestler and has landed 0 takedowns in the UFC. His takedown defense has held up more often than not, for his career, however he was exposed in his last bout as Asu Almabayev was able to lande 9/14 takedowns attempted.
Ramazan Temirov is jumping over to the UFC from RIZIN. He was a big favorite in both fights in that organization and won both bouts via first-round knockout. I am a bit skeptical about the strength of those opponents. On film, they looked uninterested in defense (and offense). Despite having roots in the Asian steppe as an Uzbek, Temirov is more of a striker than a grappler on film and has ten KO victories in 17 professional wins.
FIGHT WINNER: Ramzonbek Temirov
UFC VEGAS 98 BEST BET: Vergara/Temirov Fight to be Won via Unanimous Decision (-105), Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1.
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Jonathan “JSP” Pearce (-185) vs Pat Sabatini (+154)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+114)
Jonathan Pearce is coming off two losses where he was flat-out overpowered. Joanderson Brito was able to choke him out, and David Onama was able to win with a come-from-behind decision. However, prior to the losses, he was on a five-fight win streak and was surging up the power ratings. He is not overly powerful, not overly technical as a striker, and a good but not great wrestler.
Pat Sabatini started his UFC career 4-0. He has a trademark dominant control wrestling game and also has two submission victories on his UFC resume. He is just 1-2 in his last two fights and has lost a little bit of his hype as he has started facing opponents with more high-level experience. Still, I think he is a good underdog bet at this price. His wrestling is better than Pearce’s, and I don’t think JSP’s striking game is anything to worry about. If Sabatini can close the distance, he will win this fight going away.
FIGHT WINNER: Pat Sabatini
UFC VEGAS 98 BEST BET: Pat Sabatini (+154) vs Pearce, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.54
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Themba Gorimbo (-325) vs Niko “The Hybrid” Price (+260)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-120)
I respect Gorimbo as a fighter. I just can’t get there at this price versus a guy who has been up and down the UFC ladder numerous times. Gorimbo lost his UFC debut to AJ Fletcher, who is no longer in the organization after going 1-3. Gorimbo then beat Takashi Sato, Pete Rodriguez, and Ramiz Brahimaj as a favorite. All three fighters are limited in ability and have losing records in the UFC. Gorimbo is not an active striker and has never attempted a submission in the UFC. He is the epitome of a “wrestle hump” fighter and tries to control his opponent for 15 minutes while taking as few risks as possible.
Niko Price is never going to be a champion. But he has had great performances versus bonafide UFC pros who have been and will be in the organization for a long time. He is just 8-7 in the UFC and 2-3 in his last five fights. His win over Alex Morono in early June was one of the better performances of his career. He has also been on the roster since 2016, so he is doing something right. That something is fighting with no fear and getting finishes versus guys like Alan Jouban, Alex Morono (the first time they fought), Randy Brown, Tim Means, and James Vick.
Niko Price has been much deeper in the fight game for much longer than Themba Gorimbo. I do not think Gorimbo will have an answer for Price’s wild style, and I do not think Gorimbo will be able to ad lib an answer when fists, feet, and elbows are flying.
FIGHT WINNER: Niko Price
UFC VEGAS 98 BEST BET: Niko Price (+260) vs. Gorimbo, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.6
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Junior “The Juggernaut” Tafa (-305) vs Sean “The Smoke” Sharaf (+245)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+230) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-315)
I’ll keep it simple. Junior Tafa is terrible. He doesn’t really fight; he just tries to find a one-punch KO. If his opponent doesn’t charge in recklessly, the kill shot never comes and Tafa loses. If the opponent can wrestle at all, Tafa loses. If the opponent can leg kick, Tafa loses. He is slow, plodding, and generally uninteresting in the cage.
Sean Sharaf fought five weeks ago in Shawne Merriman’s Lights Out Xtreme Fighting. He is a 4-0 professional who has won all of his bouts via first-round KO. On film, his hands are very fast, faster than Tafa’s. That doesn’t mean they will be faster in the UFC cage, but versus absolutely terrible competition, Sharaf’s hands look very fast. That said, the level of competition is so low it may as well be shadowboxing.
Junior Tafa is not good. Sharaf is an extreme unknown. But he has fast hands. I want to fade Tafa here, but I cannot recommend you put your hard-earned money on this fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Sean Sharaf
UFC VEGAS 98 BEST BET: Pass
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Julia “Psycho” Polastri (-130) vs Cory “Poppins” McKenna (+110)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-445) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+310)
Julia Polastri lost her UFC debut as an underdog to the undefeated Josefine Knutsson. She went the distance and managed to land three takedowns and attempt a submission while getting outstruck nearly 2 to 1. She is also a fighter that took two tries to make it through the Contender Series. She lost her first attempt versus Jasmine Jasudavicius but rebounded with a submission when she got another shot. This match figures to be different than the one she lost to Knutsson but will potentially bear some similarities to how she lost to Jasudavicius.
Cory McKenna is 3-2 in the UFC and has had her hype train completely derailed twice. She lost as a -300 favorite versus Elise Reed via split decision, put together two wins in a row, then lost via armbar as a -200 favorite versus the criminally underrated Jaqueline Amorim. Initially, McKenna was scheduled to fight a different opponent, but Polastri was swapped in late. I believe the line is off on this fight, and Cory McKenna as a dog is a good spot to bet on her. She still has the skills that led to her being favored in three of her five UFC bouts, and I do not think Polastri will win the grappling war.
FIGHT WINNER: Cory McKenna
UFC VEGAS 98 BEST BET: Cory McKenna (+110) vs Polastri, Risk 1 Unit to win 1.1
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Dan Argueta (+142) vs Cody Haddon (-170)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+135)
Dan Argueta is either cursed or just flat-out bad at fighting. He has had more controversial and closer losses than anyone who has only been in the UFC cage five times. His UFC record is 1-2, 2 NC. He had a submission win wiped from his record when it was eventually ruled a premature stoppage, and he had a loss switched to a no contest after it was discovered his opponent took performance-enhancing drugs. In his last fight, he was on his way to defeating Jean Matsumoto as a +135 underdog before he gassed out and got submitted in the final second (literally) of round 2. At this point, I don’t know what to think. I respect his aggression and wrestling, but he struggles to get his hand raised, and at this point, that is a real problem.
Cody Haddon is a young Australian phenom whose only career defeat came via decision versus Steve Erceg, who has already competed for a UFC flyweight title. Outside of that loss, Haddon has seven wins, all inside the distance. If he can avoid being controlled on the ground by Argueta, he should win this fight. I like his chances to wear Argueta out and find a round two or three finish similar to the gameplan Jean Matsumoto employed.
FIGHT WINNER: Cody Haddon
UFC VEGAS 98 BEST BET: Fight Does not go the distance (+110), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1 Units
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Clayton Carpenter (-225) vs Lucas Rocha (+185)
Over 2.5 (-154) | Under 2.5 (+120)
Clayton Carpenter is an undefeated prospect fighting out of the MMA Lab, which means he gets to train with some of the best fighters in the UFC’s lower weight divisions, period. He is 28 years old and 7-0 with a 1-0 UFC record. He won his debut via first-round rear naked choke after winning in Contender Series against the always-game Edgar Chairez. Additionally, he has three wins in LFA versus decent competition. Overall he has five wins inside the distance. It should be noted that Carpenter has not fought since February 2023.
Lucas Rocha is another Contender Series veteran. He won via KO as a short favorite of -130 versus an experienced opponent with 17 professional fights. Rocha is new in the UFC, but he is, by no means, a novice. As a pro, he is 17-1 with wins over lots of guys with gaudy regional scene records. Fourteen of his victories have come inside the distance, and he is especially dangerous as a striker. Overall, this fight feels like the guy who has hand-picked his path versus the guy who did everything and anything necessary to get a shot at the UFC.
FIGHT WINNER: Lucas Rocha
UFC VEGAS 98 BEST BET: Lucas Rocha (+185) vs Carpenter, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.85
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UFC VEGAS 98 BEST BETS RECAP
– Tatsuro Taira to Win Inside the Distance (+100) vs Royval, Risk 1 Unit to win 1
– Royval/Taira Under 3.5 Rounds (+100), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1
– Brad Tavares (+170) vs Park, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.7
– Vergara/Temirov Fight to be Won via Unanimous Decision (-105), Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1.
– Pat Sabatini (+154) vs Pearce, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.54
– Niko Price (+260) vs Gorimbo, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.6
– Cory McKenna (+110) vs Polastri, Risk 1 Unit to win 1.1
– Argueta/Haddon Does Not Go Distance (+110), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1 Units
– Lucas Rocha (+185) vs Carpenter, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.85
