In the Eastern Conference semifinals, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics clash with a berth in the Eastern Conference Finals on the line. Keep reading for a preview and prediction for this series. And make sure you check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Guide, which will serve as the hub for all of our postseason betting content!
Cavaliers vs. Celtics Series Preview
The Cavaliers were able to survive a rock fight against the Orlando Magic in the first round, winning a seven-game series in which neither team won on the road. Cleveland also erased an 18-point deficit in Game 7, showcasing some real resilience — especially with Jarrett Allen missing the game. Now, the Cavaliers will try and push the Celtics, who beat up on the Miami Heat in the first round. Miami was able to steal Game 2 in that series, as the team went 23 for 43 from deep. But the Celtics won the other four games by double digits, and they won three of the games by at least 20 points. They picked up right where they left off in the regular season, and they’ll now look to make quick work of the Cavaliers.
This is another Eastern Conference series with tricky pricing, as you have to pay a significant price to lay only 1.5 games with Boston and -2.5 games is also significantly juiced. With that in mind, I think the best thing you can do here is get creative and take some big plus-money payouts on the exact series score. That’s why I’m suggesting a play on the Celtics to win 4-1 and 4-2.
This is just a brutal matchup for Cleveland, even with Kristaps Porzingis (calf) likely to miss this entire series. This season, the Celtics are first in the league in adjusted offensive rating and second in adjusted defensive rating, according to Dunks & Threes. The same rankings have the Cavaliers 18th in adjusted offensive rating and seventh in adjusted defensive rating. The latter is especially troublesome for Cleveland. The Cavaliers win most of their games by being the feistier defensive team, but the Celtics are a better team defensively. So, Cleveland’s biggest strength is neutralized in this series. And the Cavaliers are just going to have a lot of trouble scoring here.
Boston went 2-1 against Cleveland during the regular season and the Cavaliers didn’t play any of the three games with their two-big lineup of Allen and Evan Mobley. Well, Cleveland’s offense can get really bogged down with those two guys on the floor, as neither one of them is capable of stretching the defense out. And if the Cavaliers are playing at a slow tempo and not making enough 3s, these games are going to get extremely ugly. Boston makes more 3s per game than any team in the league, and the team shot 38.8% from 3 during the regular season. That was the second-highest mark in basketball. This Celtics team generally wins the math battle whenever they get out there, and the difference in 3-point shooting will be astounding in this specific matchup. Also, for as good as Cleveland is defensively, the team isn’t as reliable as you’d think when it comes to guarding the 3-point line. Opponents shot 37.1% from 3 against the Cavaliers this season.
Boston also has the perfect backcourt to combat Cleveland’s duo of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White have proven that they can go out there and hound anybody, and they’ll get up in the shirts of both Cavaliers guards. And when Garland and Mitchell do get by, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are both there with their size and athleticism to shrink the open space and possibly create turnovers.
Speaking of Tatum and Brown, the Cavaliers likely won’t have much of an answer for either of them. Max Strus works hard on the defensive end, but he’s not nearly athletic enough to slow those guys down over the course of a series. Isaac Okoro is probably the best bet when it comes to defending either one of them on an island, but he better be able to knock down some shots. Okoro is shooting only 23.5% from 3 during the playoffs, and his inability to contribute offensively tends to force JB Bickerstaff to take him off the court. All in all, Cleveland is a little thin on the wing, and that’s not what you want against one of the best wing duos in basketball.
It’s also hard to ignore that Boston still has Al Horford to play big minutes in Porzingis’ absence. That means that the Celtics still have a floor-spacing big to pull Allen or Mobley away from the basket and weaken the Cavaliers’ interior defense. That should mean some good opportunities for some of Boston’s guards and wings to score at the rim.
Overall, it’s hard to see how the Cavaliers can stay competitive in this series. So, I’m hoping Boston wraps this up in four or five, and I’m giving Cleveland one or two games to account for a big Mitchell performance or a game in which the Celtics are freezing cold from 3.
Best Bet: Celtics 4-1 (+210) & Celtics 4-2 (+425 – 0.5 units)
