In the second round of the 2024-25 NBA Playoffs, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets will battle for a spot in the Western Conference Finals. Keep reading for a preview and prediction for this series. And make sure you check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Guide, which will serve as the hub for all of our postseason betting content!
Thunder vs. Nuggets Series Preview
I was a little higher on the Nuggets’ decision to fire Mike Malone than most. The 53-year-old did a great job with Denver, but sometimes a coach loses his voice in the locker room. And Malone was always viewed as somebody that was difficult to work with. So, with David Adelman being highly regarded as an assistant, it made sense to me that the Nuggets wanted to give him a chance to coach this team. Denver had been playing some awful basketball on the defensive end, and there really wasn’t any harm in making that switch. Now, the Nuggets have had a chance to evaluate Adelman before the offseason. And that’s very important when talking about a coach that will have interview opportunities to lead other franchises.
Now, I should mention that I was all over the Clippers to win that last series — and do more damage the rest of the playoffs. So, I definitely didn’t see this coming. And while I do think Denver is a much better team than it was three weeks ago, I still think the Nuggets are going to go down rather quickly here.
It’s just hard to ignore that Oklahoma City has built the perfect roster to disrupt Denver. Ivica Zubac did a great job defending Nikola Jokic in the opening round, and I thought the Clippers had the perimeter defenders required to slow down the rest of the Nuggets. But we quickly learned that a lot of Los Angeles’ players weren’t trustworthy in the postseason. Kris Dunn, an elite point-of-attack defender, was ignored entirely when the Clippers were on offense. And even some of Los Angeles’ offensive pieces shrunk when the lights got bright, which simply couldn’t happen when factoring in the type of defense some of those players play. On top of that, the Clippers just didn’t have the necessary fire and passion required to win four out of seven games. I don’t see any of that being a problem with the Thunder.
In Isaiah Hartenstein, Oklahoma City has a really good option when it comes to defending Jokic on an island. The Thunder also have a handful of All-NBA caliber perimeter defenders to handle everybody else. Realistically, the most attackable player in Oklahoma City’s starting lineup is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who had a great season defensively. And Mark Daigneault likely won’t ask Gilgeous-Alexander to guard Jamal Murray, who is Denver’s best perimeter scorer. So, Murray can hunt that matchup all he wants, but he likely won’t get it all that often. And Gilgeous-Alexander can handle himself in one-on-one situations when he does end up on his fellow countryman. Also, when it comes to defending the Nuggets’ off-ball options, the Thunder have an elite defensive infrastructure and likely won’t allow guys like Michael Porter Jr. and Christian Braun to get open as often as the Clippers did.
I also still have some doubts about the Nuggets defense. Denver was just 23rd in the league in defensive rating (117.8) after the All-Star break, and Los Angeles wasn’t able to consistently exploit that. But that’s what happens when James Harden shrinks under pressure, and it didn’t help that he was surrounded by a bunch of guys that weren’t ready to step up and help him. Well, Oklahoma City has Gilgeous-Alexander as the star of the show. He was the best guard in the entire NBA this year, and he might be on his way to winning his first MVP award. I don’t think the Clippers have anybody that can really slow him down, and there aren’t many options for the Nuggets when it comes to defending the rest of the team. We’ll probably see some games in which Denver will ignore Luguentz Dort as a shooter, but that’s a risky proposition considering he shot 41.2% from 3 during the regular season. And if Dort can’t find his stroke, Daigneault has a million other options to bring off the bench.
This is also a series in which we could see some big performances out of Jalen Williams. Unless the Nuggets put Aaron Gordon on him, I’m not sure who’s out there that can handle his combination of ball handling, shooting and strength when going to the rim. And even if Denver does put Gordon on him, Williams will have some success. That’ll also leave Chet Holmgren with an attackable matchup.
This is just a nightmare of a draw for a flawed Nuggets team, and the fact that Denver has to play Game 1 just two days after the ending of a grueling opening-round series means you can probably bake in a 1-0 lead for Oklahoma City. Well, with that being the case, it’s hard to imagine the Thunder not winning in five or less. The only reason I’m saying five is because I’m giving Jokic the benefit of the doubt and assuming he’ll win at least one game. But realistically, I see Oklahoma City handling its business in the first two games, winning one of two in Denver and then wrapping things up at the Paycom Center.
Series Best Bet: Thunder -2.5 Games (-130)
