Despite a rash of injuries that threatened to derail the season the Orlando Magic are in the playoffs for the second consecutive year. The combined 58 games missed by both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner – along with a season-ending injury to Jalen Suggs – caused the youthful Magic to slip into the play-in. Orlando’s reward for overcoming such adversity is a series with the Boston Celtics, a team which won 19 of 22 games to end the regular season and is looking for a second consecutive title.
Celtics vs. Magic Series Preview
Boston is a prohibitive favorite in this series. The market opened this series price at -6000 in favor of the Celtics and there is little support to be found for the Magic. Orlando did win two of three in the regular season, but one of those contests came at the end of the season. Baylor Scheierman started and played 35 minutes for Boston in that game.
The Celtics have a massive advantage in this series over the Magic: shooting. Boston led the league in 3-point frequency (50.1%), 3-point attempts per game (48.2), 3-point makes per game (17.8) and it was 10th in shooting percentage (36.8%). Orlando was 21st in 3-point frequency (36.6%), 23rd in 3-point attempts per game (35.3) and 30th in both 3-point makes per game (11.2) and shooting percentage (31.8%). In other words, the Celtics come into each game on average with a nearly 20-point edge from beyond the arc. That is going to be nearly impossible for the Magic to overcome.
Offense is the biggest issue for Orlando. Beyond shooting, the Magic are just not efficient on that end of the floor. They were 26th in non-garbage time offensive efficiency in the regular season (110.4). Even with both Banchero and Wagner on the floor Orlando only averaged 112.0 points per 100 possessions, a mark which was in the 35th percentile among all lineups with at least 100 possessions played.
Boston has the defensive prowess to make a true weakness even more feeble. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have the size to match up with both Banchero and Wagner. The Celtics not only finished fifth in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (111.3), but they led the league in transition defense and were 11th in halfcourt defensive efficiency (96.6). The injury to Suggs also makes the Magic’s backcourt a near non-factor on offense. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White will be able routinely help with Orlando’s two big wings, which will clog the floor even more for the moribund Magic offense.
Still, Orlando is a great defensive team, which could allow it to be competitive on a game-to-game basis in this series. Despite the atrocious offensive numbers the Magic still mustered a +0.5 net rating this season due to a defense which finished second in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (109.9). There is a reality in which this series looks similar to that of the Eastern Conference Finals from last year. The Celtics won that series in four games, but three of the four games were decided by two possessions or fewer.
Attacking this series from a betting perspective is difficult. Boston is a massive favorite for good reason, and the markets derived from that price are often hard for casual bettors to stomach. Even the exact outcome markets do not offer a high payout, but that is the way to look for this series. Instead of laying -425 for the Celtics to cover 2.5 games or for the series to take fewer than 5.5 games, play Boston to sweep Orlando here. Most shops have this at +105 as of Wednesday evening. The math edge is too great for the Celtics here, and it is unlikely the Magic’s defense – as great as it is – can do enough to get them even a game in this series.
Series Pick: Celtics to win series 4-0 (+105)
