The last time the Detroit Pistons won a playoff game the iPhone was less than a year old. When the franchise last made the postseason Barack Obama was running for his first term in office. It’s been tough in the Motor City. But, Cade Cunningham has injected life into the veins of the once moribund franchise, and the Pistons are in the postseason just a year after losing 28 consecutive games. They face a Knicks team with aspirations of a championship and demons of their own – it’s been 25 years since the franchise last made the conference finals. It’s been hard for the fanbase of each team, but bettors and fans alike will benefit by getting a great series which should entertain.
Knicks vs. Pistons Series Preview
New York initially opened -425 on the series price at DraftKings which was first to market. In the days since the odds have shrunk slightly on the Knickerbockers, and as of Tuesday evening they are -390 consensus on the screen. The move is correct, as Detroit has a higher probability to win this series than what initial prices indicated.
The Pistons took the season series from the Knicks with a 3-1 record. As is the case with most regular season series, there were different personnel almost every meeting. However, on Jan. 13 Detroit went to New York and won outright as 8.5-point underdogs in a matchup that featured a full complement of players.
Cade Cunningham presents problems for the Knicks. In four games Cunningham averaged 30.8 points and 8.3 assists on 56.3% shooting from the floor. New York has OG Anunoby to defend the former top pick, but Cunningham hunted Jalen Brunson in the regular season and he will do so again in this series. It is unlikely New York is able to shut off that valve over the course of the series.
The Knicks have not proven to be an adequate defensive team this season. New York allowed the 12th-most points per 100 possessions in halfcourt settings. Brunson is a smaller defender at the point of attack which the Pistons will attack. In fact, when Brunson was on the floor this season the Knicks allowed 6.5 more points every 100 possessions. Against opponents which finished 10th or better in non-garbage time net rating New York was 22nd in defensive efficiency. Detroit was not one of those opponents, but it is a point of evidence that the Knicks struggle to defend against the best competition.
All of this is to make the case for the Pistons to be much more competitive than what the market expectations are. Having said that, there is plenty Detroit will have to deal with itself.
Karl-Anthony Towns should thrive in this series against the Pistons’ big men. Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart struggled in covering Towns along the perimeter in the regular season. Those two play primarily in drop coverage on defense, which allowed Towns to burn Detroit from beyond the arc. In three games against the Pistons Towns shot 43.5% on 5.3 attempts per game. That should manifest once again in this series. BetMGM is offering Towns at +1200 to lead the series in 3-point makes. That is a price with some value in it, especially if you are someone who believes this could be a short series in favor of the Knicks.
Brunson also gave Detroit fits in the regular season. New York’s star point guard averaged 28.3 points on 51.2% shooting in four games. The Pistons were a fine defensive team which finished 11th in non-garbage time defensive rating, but they lack a true defensive option along the perimeter to shut down Brunson. One of Detroit’s biggest weaknesses on defense was its penchant for fouling. It ranked 27th in free throw rate in the regular season. Brunson will thrive in tightly called contests that take place in this series.
In totality, the gap between these two teams is not a gaping chasm like the initial market price indicates. Both teams have the ability to attack the other’s weakness. The market has also shown it does not have an accurate read on the Knicks, as they finished 39-41-1 ATS on the season. By my measure there is value in the Pistons on the series price, as I do believe their odds to win the series to be higher. However, the better bet to make is in a different market.
The odds have moved toward the over in total games for the series. DraftKings initially opened over 5.5 games at -115 but the current price is -130. MGM is offering -125 on the over, and I believe that to be a reasonable price to lay. If I am correct that the gap between these two teams is tight, then that means the odds of getting a longer series is higher than just 55.6%. It is my favorite bet of what should be a fantastic series.
Series Pick: Knicks/Pistons OVER 5.5 Games (-125)
