The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the Houston Rockets. Keep reading to see how we think the Rockets will do compared to their regular season win total of 52.5.
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Offense
The Rockets exceeded expectations last season, finishing second in the West and giving a veteran Golden State squad a good fight in the first round. Their weaknesses were clear: no go-to perimeter scorer and too little shooting (12.7 threes per game, 22nd in the NBA). Houston made a big dent in both issues by landing Kevin Durant for the modest price of Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, a 2025 first-rounder, and five seconds.
Durant is 37 and past his athletic peak, but he’s still one of the most dangerous scorers alive. He averaged 26.6 points on 52.7% from the field and 43.0% from deep last year. He may not attack the rim like he once did, but there’s nobody better in the mid-range. When the Rockets need a bucket late in the shot clock, they finally have someone who can deliver. Just dump the ball to Durant in the mid-post and get out of the way.
Unfortunately, the buzz of the Durant deal dimmed when Fred VanVleet tore his ACL in September. He was Houston’s leader, its steadiest guard, and one of the few who consistently launched threes (2.7 per game). Losing him doesn’t shut the championship window, but it narrows it. That puts pressure on Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard to open it back up.
Thompson averaged 14.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 3.8 assists in his rookie year. He’s the league’s most explosive athlete, a terror in transition and as a cutter, with enough playmaking to run offense in spurts. Sheppard, the No. 3 pick in 2024, barely played last season but brings a clean shooting stroke and score-first mentality. He hit just 33.8% from three last year but drilled 52.1% at Kentucky. Ime Udoka will need to live with his mistakes to see if he can handle big minutes — and if not, Sheppard could become a trade chip once contracts become movable in December.
Houston also has Alperen Sengun, one of the NBA’s best playmaking bigs. He averaged 19.1 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 4.9 assists, last year. He also showed growth at EuroBasket by hitting threes and averaging 6.6 assists per game. Adding a jumper would ease Houston’s spacing concerns, and Durant’s presence should make Sengun more efficient by drawing defensive attention elsewhere.
The Rockets also dominated the offensive glass last season (league-best 14.6 per game), and they added Clint Capela to a center group that already featured Sengun and Steven Adams. Second chances will sting even more with Durant on the floor.
Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason should provide more, too. Smith is a reliable floor-spacer (35.4% from deep) and willing gunner. Eason is a relentless athlete who’s improving as a shooter but already impacts games cutting, attacking, and crashing the glass. Dorian Finney-Smith, who will miss the start of the season, also gives Houston a veteran wing that is cash from the corners.
The VanVleet injury is a blow, but Durant changes the equation. With him, Houston should push into the top 10 in adjusted offensive rating. And if Sheppard clicks as a lead guard, the ceiling gets higher.
Defense
Don’t expect a step back here. The Rockets ranked fourth in adjusted defensive rating (110.1) last season, and while Brooks was a big part of that identity, replacing Green’s poor defense and VanVleet’s lack of size with more Thompson and Sheppard minutes is likely a net gain. And Durant, often overlooked on this end, still provides length and savvy team defense.
Houston excelled at running shooters off the line last year, allowing just 12.3 made threes per game (second-fewest). Their collective length makes life miserable for drivers, with big bodies waiting to swipe at the ball or contest shots. And Capela joins Sengun and Adams to form a massive interior rotation that limits second-chance points. They’re huge at every position.
Thompson is the X-factor. His ability to hound top scorers every night means his teammates can stay home. Having a wing stopper of his caliber changes matchups, especially in the postseason. And any lineups with Thompson, Finney-Smith, and Eason together should be fun. Good luck scoring on that.
Outlook
VanVleet’s absence lowers the ceiling, but Houston is still stronger than last year’s 52-win squad. The defense should remain elite, and Durant’s shotmaking gives them a new gear in crunch time. Hitting 53+ wins feels realistic.
The Rockets sit just below Oklahoma City in the West hierarchy, in the same tier as Denver. They’re young, hungry, and have the draft capital to make another splashy move if needed.
If Sheppard breaks out, Houston could be even more dangerous. If not, the front office has ammo to go shopping. Either way, this roster is playoff-ready now — and perhaps title-ready if the right domino falls.
Prediction: Over 52.5 Wins
