The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the Washington Wizards. Keep reading to see how we think the Wizards will do compared to their regular season win total of 21.5.
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Offense
“Sloppy” sums up Washington’s 2024-25 offense. The Wizards played at the league’s fourth-fastest pace (101.8) but finished dead last in adjusted offensive efficiency (106.2). They ranked 26th in turnover rate (15.2) and 28th in effective field goal percentage (51.2%). In short, they were in a rush to do nothing — and there’s no guarantee that changes.
Brian Keefe returns for his second full season as head coach, which feels uninspiring. In parts of two years, he’s 26-95 in D.C. Keefe says the right things — hard-nosed defense, analytic-friendly shot selection, connectivity on both ends — but as a former interim, he wasn’t meant to be in this seat long-term. Without clear progress, GM Will Dawkins will likely move on.
The franchise’s most important piece is Alex Sarr, the No. 2 pick in the 2024 Draft. As a rookie, he averaged 13.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 2.4 assists, while shooting 39.4% from the field and 30.8% from three. His start was rocky, but his play trended upward and he finished closer to league average in Estimated Plus-Minus. With his jumper, face-up skills, and natural ability, Sarr has the makings of a cornerstone.
Bilal Coulibaly, the No. 7 pick in 2023, is also being counted on. Unfortunately, he’ll miss the start of the season after thumb surgery. That’s a setback, because the light came on late last year when he flashed the swiss-army toolkit that had people calling him a French Scottie Pippen. Washington will be hoping the momentum isn’t lost.
The Wizards do have more young firepower. Bub Carrington (2024 first-rounder) averaged 9.8 points and 4.4 assists while showcasing serious shot creation. If his passing sharpens and his efficiency ticks up, he could be a good player. Tre Johnson, the No. 6 pick in 2025, is an even bigger prize. Johnson averaged 19.9 points as a freshman at Texas, emerging as one of the nation’s best shooters and a confident three-level scorer.
Kyshawn George, a 6-foot-8 wing, also showed some promise as a rookie. He’s streaky, but his size, ball-handling, and outside shot give him a real chance to stick.
Cam Whitmore, Will Riley, and A.J. Johnson are three more young players worth monitoring. Whitmore flamed out in Houston but still brings size, athleticism, and shooting. Riley, a first-round pick in 2025, is a smooth forward with a picture-perfect stroke. Johnson is raw but drips upside at the guard spot.
To balance that youth, the Wizards added C.J. McCollum, Khris Middleton, and Corey Kispert — three pros who can produce while modeling professionalism. Last year, Washington tried surrounding its young players with veterans, but Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma weren’t the right fits. This trio should help both on and off the floor.
Overall, expect more chaos offensively, but there’s legitimate talent here. If Sarr, Johnson, and Coulibaly all grow, the foundation will be much stronger heading into 2026-27.
Defense
Washington wasn’t any better defensively than it was offensively last year. The Wizards finished 28th in adjusted defensive rating (114.7), allowed the fifth-most made threes per game (14.3), and ranked 29th in rebound rate (47.6%).
The problem is the roster construction. Too few players care about getting stops. Sarr is one of the few exceptions. He already looks like a special defender with his rim protection and mobility. His 5.0% block rate ranked seventh in the league, and his 1.5 blocks per game tied him for seventh overall. Avoiding fouls and sharpening his help positioning are the next steps, but the tools are elite.
Coulibaly and George also look good defensively. Coulibaly has the length, athleticism, and motor to be a high-level wing stopper. George isn’t the best athlete, but he competes, understands schemes, and positions himself well.
But that’s only three rotation players you can praise on this end. Everyone else struggles — on the ball, off the ball, or both. Effort and attention to detail are lacking, and there’s little reason to think that will change.
Keefe will keep hammering the message that defense comes first, but he doesn’t have the personnel — or the veteran buy-in — to back it up. McCollum has never been much of a defender, and Middleton’s body doesn’t allow him to dig in for stops anymore.
Outlook
The question isn’t whether Washington will be good — it’s how bad they’ll be. The Wizards need to win 21 or fewer games to go Under their win total, something they’ve managed in back-to-back seasons.
Long-term, there’s reason for optimism. Sarr looks like a future franchise cornerstone, Johnson profiles as an ideal running mate, and a few other players have the potential to emerge as keepers. Plus, the veterans on this roster should help stabilize a young locker room.
But in the short term, this is still a roster without enough two-way contributors. Until Washington adds more defenders who actually hate losing, the lottery will remain their home. Maybe that’s the point, considering the strength of the 2026 Draft class.
If you have to make a play, the Under looks safer than the Over.
Prediction: Under 21.5 Wins
