The first round of the 2025 NBA Draft is in the books. The first couple of picks went as planned. Cooper Flagg went to the Dallas Mavericks, Dylan Harper went to the San Antonio Spurs, VJ Edgecombe went to the Philadelphia 76ers and Kon Knueppel went to the Charlotte Hornets. However, we definitely saw a little wonkiness after that. There were some puzzling moves made throughout, but we also saw some shrewd ones. But let’s not waste more time. Let’s get into some of the big storylines, draft winners and Rookie of the Year implications below.
Big storylines
Ace Bailey being selected by the Utah Jazz was the first big surprise of the night. Heading into the 2024-25 college basketball season, Bailey was considered one of the top prospects in the draft, sitting right in Tier 2 with Rutgers teammate Dylan Harper. But Bailey had an up-and-down year with the Scarlet Knights, and he ultimately found himself third on some draft boards — and lower on others. Then, there was some real drama surrounding Bailey heading into the draft, as his agent was doing what he could to push his client to the Wizards or Nets. But Austin and Danny Ainge had other plans. The father-son duo running the Jazz saw an opportunity to get an elite talent with the fifth pick, and they weren’t going to give in to Bailey’s agent and his nonsense. Bailey now finds himself as part of Utah’s core, and I think he’ll end up being just fine. More on him later.
The next biggest story might have been my Phoenix Suns trading the 29th pick and a future first to the Hornets for center Mark Williams. I’m a big fan of Williams, who averaged 15.3 points, 10.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game last season and was supposed to be the center of the future for the Los Angeles Lakers. That changed with the 23-year-old failing his physical after the big trade at last year’s deadline. But Williams seems healthy now, and I was pretty excited about Phoenix making the move for a talented young big. Unfortunately, the Suns used the 10th pick of the draft on Khaman Maluach roughly 30 seconds later. Again, on its own, I would have been thrilled with that pick. Phoenix needed a center heading into the offseason, and Maluach had top-five buzz at one point this season. But making those two moves together is where the front office lost me. Williams and Maluach won’t be able to play together. They’re also on very similar timelines.
Another interesting trade saw the Pelicans dealing the 23rd pick and an unprotected 2026 first-round pick to the Hawks for No. 13. New Orleans drafted Jeremiah Fears at No. 7, but the team thought long and hard about going with Derik Queen there. So, when Queen was still there at the end of the lottery, Troy Weaver and Joe Dumars decided to go up and get their guy. I absolutely love Queen’s game, and I think Fears has the potential to be a stud too. But New Orleans was 21-61 last year, and the team’s best player, Zion Williamson, can’t stay healthy. The Pelicans also have Jordan Poole, one of the most inefficient guards in basketball, as one of their new starters. What if this thing goes off the rails? There’s a real shot New Orleans just handed Atlanta a top-10 pick in next year’s star-studded draft.
There was also one absolute shocker of a pick in the first round, as the Portland Trail Blazers took Hansen Yang at 16. Yang is a 7-foot-2 center with an impressive skill set, highlighted by some soft shooting touch and high-level feel as a passer. Bleacher Report’s Jake Fischer said that one of his Nuggets sources called Yang the “Chinese Jokic.” Perhaps that will end up being a great pick for the Blazers, as Wang has big-time potential and should be a fun player to watch. But it did come out of nowhere. Wang was more of a late first-rounder or early second-rounder on most draft boards, and the Blazers also happen to have Donovan Clingan as their center of the future already. They also have Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams sitting around. Maybe Portland and Phoenix can run a center-only scrimmage during the preseason.
One last thing worth mentioning is that the Toronto Raptors ended up grabbing Collin Murray-Boyles at No. 9. There was a lot out there that suggested Masai Ujiri was going to draft Noa Essengue, which is why I ended up playing the French forward to go Top 10 as my biggest best of the night. Several other VSiN analysts were on that with me. But nothing is ever easy when betting the draft. This will be a good lesson for next year.
Selections with betting implications
I can spend hours talking about winners and losers from the draft, but the reality is that a lot of the picks won’t matter when talking about betting on the 2025-26 season. Even a guy like Harper, the second overall pick, could struggle to make his mark immediately, as he’s going to be competing with De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle for minutes. And overall, I’m not sure his presence makes the team that much better in Year 1.
Flagg landing with the Mavericks is obviously the big one. Dallas had a Luka Doncic-sized hole at the small forward spot, and Flagg is going to man that position immediately. And honestly, as long as Flagg just has a decent rookie year, the Mavericks should be title contenders. Flagg is a big wing that can score at all three levels, create for others off the bounce and defend at a high level — both on and off the ball. Once Kyrie Irving is back, Dallas will close games with Irving, Max Christie, Flagg, Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively II. The Mavericks will also have Klay Thompson, Daniel Gafford, PJ Washington and Caleb Martin off the bench. That rotation has size, versatility, firepower and experience. That’s why I have already invested a little in Dallas to win the title in 2025-26 at 40-1 and 33-1. Irving will be out until January, but good luck beating the Mavs four out of seven times when he’s back.
Knueppel going to the Hornets at four is another pick that could change some things. There are more talented players than Knueppel in this class, and I’m not as high as others on the shooting guard’s long-term potential. But Charlotte should benefit greatly from having a sniper in between LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller. The spacing for the Hornets will be a lot better if Knueppel comes in and flirts with 40% shooting from three. Knueppel is also a good connective piece, and he’s a competitor. So, in a watered-down Eastern Conference, I wouldn’t be surprised if Knueppel is the rug that ties the Charlotte room together. I liked the Hornets as a borderline playoff team last year, but perhaps I was a year early. I’ll have my eye on the Over on that win total again, and I could end up backing them to make the postseason.
I also think the Cedric Coward pick will help the Memphis Grizzlies right away, which thrills me after taking them at 110-1 to win the Western Conference the other day. I know that might be weird to say about the 11th pick in a draft, but Zach Kleiman has a good history of nailing his draft picks. And Coward is a player that has a high floor with his ability to shoot the three (38.6% 3PT over four years of college) and defend multiple spots. The Grizzlies have swung and missed trying to add guys like Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby around Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. Well, Coward has the potential to be that type of player, and I can see him making a two-way impact right away. That means Memphis will have Coward, Jaylen Wells and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as sturdy three-and-D options surrounding their All-Star duo.
Early Rookie of the Year thoughts
DraftKings Sportsbook has Rookie of the Year odds up for the 2025-26 season. As of 11:50 pm ET on Wednesday, June 25th, this is what they looked like:
- Cooper Flagg (-200)
- Dylan Harper (+900)
- Ace Bailey (10-1)
- Tre Johnson (12-1)
- VJ Edgecombe (22-1)
- Egor Demin (22-1)
- Kon Knueppel (40-1)
- Jeremiah Fears (40-1)
- Kasparas Jakucionis (50-1)
- Derik Queen (50-1)
(For the rest of the odds, go to DraftKings)
Flagg is the odds-on favorite. That isn’t all that surprising. Not only is he the best player in this class, but he’ll also be in a winning situation right away. However, that can go one of two ways. Perhaps Flagg will ball out and look like a future All-Star while also impacting winning. But what if his numbers take a hit as a result of playing for a loaded team? I like Flagg to average double-digits and play solid defense immediately, but would that be enough to hold off a player that puts up much bigger numbers? Enter Bailey.
Before the draft, reports indicated that Bailey wanted to start for an Eastern Conference team that will run some offense through him and allow him to play through mistakes. Well, Bailey will be able to do that. He’ll just be doing it in Salt Lake City, in the Western Conference. And you know what? He might be better off for it. Will Hardy is one of the brightest young coaches in the league, so he’ll get creative about putting Bailey in advantageous spots. Utah also has a pass-first point guard in Isaiah Collier. Of course, Keyonte George is a score-first guard, and the third-year guard is going to play plenty this season. But when Bailey is out there with Collier, he won’t have to worry about playing with a ball-dominant guard. He’ll have his chances to shine. And I feel strongly about this being a situation in which Bailey can step in and flirt with 18.0 points per game.
I also wouldn’t mind a sprinkle on Egor Demin. I know people were surprised to see the BYU ball handler go eighth in the draft, but that’s exactly where I had him on my draft board. I love his combination of size, playmaking ability and basketball savvy. I also think his jumper is better than his numbers suggest. Demin should also thrive playing with NBA spacing, and he’s playing for the right coach. Jordi Fernandez is one of the brightest minds in the league, and he has been especially excellent at working with lead guards early in his career. With that in mind, I wouldn’t be shocked if Demin plays well immediately. He’s not the project people think he is, and it’s not like there won’t be opportunities in Brooklyn.
