Monday Betting Recaps
Welcome to our daily recap of the sports betting results from the night before.
In case you missed the announcement last week, we’ve started splitting our “Tuley’s Takes” columns into two separate pieces: this FREE article where I recap last night’s betting action and update league-wide ATS stats in the various team sports, and then another one where I give my Best Bets on the day’s wagering menu.
Links to both articles should be found on the VSiN.com home page, though I advise my regular readers to also bookmark my dedicated page at https://vsin.com/news/dave-tuley-columns/.
As for Monday’s betting action, the NBA playoff trend of SU winners covering the spread (meaning either favorites covering or dogs winning outright with the spread not coming into play) went 2-0 ATS to improve to 29-2-1 ATS as the Heat upset the Bucks 119-114 as 8-point underdogs and the Lakers rallied to beat the Grizzlies 117-111 and covered as 4.5-point favorites.
Those laying the points with the Lakers because “the points don’t matter” lucked out as it certainly didn’t look like they were going to cover with the game being close late in regulation, but LeBron James scored a late bucket with 1 second left to send the game to overtime and then they ended up getting over the spread during the extra 5 minutes. Even then, the Grizzlies got back within the spread at 115-111 on a 3-pointer by Luke Kennard with 2.1 seconds left, but then Dillon Brooks fouled Austin Reeves with 0.3 seconds to play and he made both free throws for the cover.
The Grizzlies’ "bad beat" non-cover also dropped them to 0-16 SU and 2-14 ATS as road underdogs during the 2022-23 season, and they could become the first team in the last 30 years to go winless in that role if they get eliminated in Game 5 in Los Angeles or lose Game 6 back in Memphis.
Road teams continued to dominate in the NHL playoffs as they went 3-1 to stand at 11-1 the last 3 days (the higher-seeded teams were on the road in these games, so it’s not that surprising, though three won as dogs with the Golden Knights winning 4-2 at the Jets in a game that closed pick-’em).
Let’s get to the sport-by-sport breakdowns from Monday.
NBA: Lakers beat Grizzlies 117-111 in OT late Monday to take a 3-1 series lead as they ended up covering as 4.5-point home favorites (#BadGeat for Memphis backers). The game also went Over the betting total of 224 points thanks to OT. Earlier, the Heat upset the Bucks 119-114 as 8-point home underdogs to also take a 3-1 lead over the Eastern Conference No. 1 seed (went Over 218).
More NBA playoffs: Favorites lead 22-10 SU and 20-12 ATS (62.5%) so far in the first round. Home teams went 2-0 SU and ATS to improve to 22-10 SU and 22-9-1 ATS (71%). Unders still lead 17-15 (21-17 if including play-in tournament) The “zig-zag theory” (aka "loser of last") went 0-2 ATS with the Bucks and Grizzlies in that role, dipping to 12-11-1 ATS.
NHL: Underdogs went 3-0 with Golden Knights-Jets closing pick-’em. The upsets were by the Devils (+145 in 3-1 win at Rangers), Maple Leafs (-105 in 5-4 OT win at Lightning) and Kraken (+132 in 3-2 OT win vs. Avalanche). Road teams went 3-1 (11-1 the last 3 days). Over/Unders split 2-2.
More NHL: Dogs took a 16-15 lead so far in the 1st round with 1 pick-’em (VGK-WPG on Monday night). Road teams have taken over (going 11-1 last 3 days), improving to 20-12 overall. Overs lead 20-12. The zig-zag went 1-3 to drop to 15-9 (cooling off from a 10-2 start).
MLB: Faves went 6-5 with the upsets by the A’s (+182 at Angels), Rockies (+175 at Guardians), Tigers (+135 at Brewers), Orioles (+102 vs. Red Sox) and Reds (-101 vs. Rangers). Home teams went 8-3. Unders 6-5. On the season, faves lead 208-128 with 6 PKs. Home/road teams back to .500 at 171-171. Overs dipped to 170-156-16 (52.1%).
