Heading into the 2025-26 NBA season, the Rookie of the Year award was considered Cooper Flagg’s to lose. And at one point — specifically before Flagg suffered a foot sprain in February — the No. 1 overall pick did put up massive numbers and stake his claim as the league’s best rookie. Flagg was fantastic in December, averaging 23.5 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game on 51.6/33.3/80.8 shooting splits. He was also good in January, averaging 20.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game on 47.8/31.1/76.9 shooting splits. However, that’s a two-month stretch in a very long season. Over the course of the entire year, Kon Knueppel has been the best rookie, and it isn’t particularly close once you dive into the numbers.
Flagg has a slight edge over Knueppel when looking at traditional counting stats, as the new face of the Dallas franchise is averaging 21.2 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game this season. Those numbers are a touch better than Knueppel’s, as Charlotte’s sharpshooter is averaging 18.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game. However, raw numbers are pretty weak considering all the tools we have at our disposal to evaluate impact.
Before even digging into some of the better catch-all metrics, it’s important to note that Knueppel has Flagg beat when looking at field goal percentage (47.7% vs. 46.8%), three-point percentage (42.7% vs. 29.6%), and free throw percentage (86.2% vs. 82.6%). Knueppel has also done that in meaningful games, as the Hornets are set to compete for a playoff spot through the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament. Flagg’s Mavericks are lottery bound.
Knueppel is also the league leader in three-point makes (270) this season, and that’s not just for rookies. That’s for everyone. He’s also first in the NBA in Catch & Shoot PPG (8.1), according to the NBA’s official tracking data. Knueppel is legitimately a top-five shooter in the league, and his gravity has helped transform Charlotte into an elite offensive team.
Going deeper on the numbers is even more telling. At Dunks & Threes, Knueppel is in the league’s 95th percentile in Offensive Estimated Plus-Minus (+3.0), while Flagg is down in the 68th percentile (+0.0). That’s a massive difference when you consider that Knueppel has been the better defender this year.
Flagg actually profiled as a special defensive prospect coming out of Duke, and there’s a chance he’s a superb player on that end of the floor one day. However, the burden of being the Mavericks’ No. 1 option on offense has led to a miserable defensive season for him.
Knueppel is also in the league’s 96th percentile in Estimated Wins (10.0), while Flagg is down in the 82nd percentile (4.5). That’s another Dunks & Threes number and it speaks to what their production does to contribute to victories.
Knueppel also has better numbers than Flagg when looking at some of Basketball Reference’s statistics. When looking at Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), Knueppel’s 3.0 trumps Flagg’s 2.0. The same also goes for Box Plus-Minus, where Knueppel is at 2.7 and Flagg is at 1.4. Basketball Reference also has Knueppel at .151 Win Shares per 48 minutes, while Flagg is at 0.077. That means Knueppel is double the contributor that Flagg is when looking at a win for a single game.
There’s just nothing out there that suggests Flagg was more impactful than Knueppel this season, and that was backed up by the ESPN straw poll on April 3. In that poll, 100 media members submitted their Rookie of the Year picks. Knueppel earned 80 first-place votes, while Flagg only got 20.
Once those results became public, the best price you were able to find for Knueppel to win Rookie of the Year was in the ballpark of -1800. That might have been a little extreme, but it seemed all but certain that Charlotte’s young stud was on his way to claiming the award. Then, Flagg went for 51 points against the Magic the night of the release. He also followed it up with 45 points, nine assists, and eight rebounds against the Lakers on April 5, and everything went crazy from there.
All of a sudden, heading into the final day of the NBA regular season, Flagg is favored to win Rookie of the Year. However, I believe the market is inflating his value significantly, and these awards voters deserve at least a little credit. They should see that crazy things happened in the NBA in April, when very few teams were actually playing hard and focusing on results. In the grand scheme of things, Knueppel outperformed Flagg and anyone that does the slightest bit of research will see that.
Knueppel even played 11 more games than Flagg this season, meaning he wasn’t just better but he was more available. That’s not some trivial gap either. Being available is part of the job, and Knueppel’s durability was massive for a very good Charlotte squad.
You won’t catch me arguing that Knueppel will be a better pro than Flagg down the road. I genuinely believe Flagg will be a top-10 player in the NBA, and that could happen as soon as next season. But this award is supposed to go to the rookie that performed at the highest level on the year, not the rookie that has the most potential.
I just don’t think there’s a credible case to be made that Flagg is the Rookie of the Year. With that in mind, I’d view this recent dip for Knueppel as an opportunity to buy. He’s available at +150.
