The 2023-24 NBA season is in full swing and we’re tackling it hard at VSiN. As always, Jonathan Von Tobel will be providing you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the NBA slate on Thursday, March 7. Also, check out our NBA Odds page for the latest line movement.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 7
2023 Record: 235-225-2 (-0.99 units)
NBA Best Bets Today – March 7
Brooklyn Nets at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 pm ET
The Pistons have been one of the worst teams in basketball all season. However, they have been a little more competitive than people think. And they have been especially competent in recent months. Well, the Pistons now host a Nets team that isn’t significantly more talented than them. And that’s especially true with no Ben Simmons, Cameron Johnson and Cam Thomas. So, with this being a home game, Detroit should feel pretty good about its chances.
This is also the third game in four nights for the Nets, and I have been trying to attack these rough scheduling spots all season. No team can overcome significant fatigue, even against weak opponents. I also think it takes an elite 3-point shooting team to really expose how bad the Pistons are. Brooklyn is a solid shooting team, but it’s not a great one. That said, I love the Pistons’ chances of coming away with a win here. I actually think Cade Cunningham will look like the best player on the floor in this game, and Jalen Duren’s size should get to Nic Claxton a bit.
Overall, I just don’t expect this to look like the Detroit team we’ve seen all year. So I’m going big on the Pistons as an NBA best bet.
Bet: Pistons ML (+118 – 2 units)
Toronto Raptors at Phoenix Suns – 9:00 pm ET
Our analytics guru Steve Makinen gave this game a projected total of 233.5, so I already feel good about the Over. The reality is that this Raptors team is miserable defensively right now. Toronto was already looking rather weak on that end after dealing Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby. Well, the team is now without Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl and Bruce Brown. Those are three fantastic defensive players. That said, the Raptors are going to have a hard time containing a Suns team that is as explosive as they come offensively. I know Devin Booker is still out for Phoenix, but this team still has Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. Those two also happen to be flanked by superb role players.
As for the Raptors, they should be able to find a little offense here. The Suns can struggle to contain fast, shifty guards, so Immanuel Quickley can present some problems for them. Also, the Over is 10-1 in Toronto’s road meetings with Western Conference teams under Darko Rajakovic. Those games also happen to fly Over, as the average total points scored is 248.4 points per game. The Raptors have also done their part for Over bettors, averaging 120.5 in such contests. I don’t see any reason to believe that trend ends here.
Bet: Over 231.5 (-110 – 2 units)
Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets – 10:00 pm ET
The last time these teams played, the Nuggets went into Boston and won 102-100 as 7-point underdogs. And realistically, nothing about that felt fluky. This Denver team is still the best in the entire NBA until somebody proves otherwise. So, even though Boston’s statistical profile is out of this world, I still like taking the Nuggets at home here. This championship core has snoozed through some of the regular season, but that’s natural after winning the finals. Denver has still shown that it gets up for the big ones. And the Nuggets will be eager to get back in the win column after losing to the Suns the other night.
Denver is also a really tough matchup for Boston. The Celtics rely heavily on the 3-point shot, but the Nuggets are giving up the second-fewest 3s per game this season. Denver is going to do everything it can to keep Boston from getting comfortable looks from out there. Also, the Nuggets have one of the game’s best wing defenders in Aaron Gordon. He’ll likely be glued to Jayson Tatum in this one. That would really set the Celtics back, especially with Jaylen Brown (questionable) a little banged up.
It’s also just impossible to ignore that Denver is the toughest road environment in sports. And the Nuggets are 24-6 when playing at home this season. And considering that loss to the Suns was in Denver, there’s no way I’m expecting them to lose twice in a row in this building.
Bet: Nuggets ML (-108 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – March 7
Minnesota Timberwolves at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 pm ET
We learned today that Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) will be out indefinitely. Naturally, people will expect backup Naz Reid to play significantly more minutes. However, I think there’s a good possibility the Timberwolves just play Jaden McDaniels roughly 35 minutes each night. McDaniels is fully capable of defending fours, so more time doing so won’t kill Minnesota’s defense. In fact, the Timberwolves might be better defensively without Towns. Offensively, there will be more touches to go around for everyone. Towns is taking 15.5 shots per game this season, and a few of those should go to McDaniels. So, I like the talented forward to make the most of those. And I think a big game is on the table for tonight.
McDaniels is already averaging 10.5 points per game this season, so he’s already a legitimate scoring threat. Now, he gets a bigger role and his first game is against a Pacers team that is 26th in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating. Indiana is also second in the league in pace of play.
Bet: McDaniels Over 11.5 Points (-104 – 1.5 units) & McDaniels Alt Points 15+ (+225 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
Heat +5 (-120 – 1.5 units) & Heat ML (+160 – 0.5 units): I decided to add this right after publishing. It just feels like a lot of points for Miami to be getting. The Heat are better equipped than anybody to defend Luka Doncic. They have feisty, lengthy wing defenders and a good defensive infrastructure. Miami is also the most well-coached team in the NBA. So, the Heat should be able to carve up a bad Mavericks defense offensively. I did end up paying a small price to buy this from +4.5 to +5. But that’s a key number, so I felt it was worth it. I’m also putting a little something on Miami moneyline. I genuinely think the Heat are the better team.
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