The 2023-24 NBA season is in full swing and we’re tackling it hard at VSiN. As always, Jonathan Von Tobel will be providing you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the NBA slate on Monday, March 26th. Also, check out our NBA Odds page for the latest line movement.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 26
2023 Record: 280-294-2 (-13.54 units)
NBA Best Bets Today – March 26
Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat – 7:30 pm ET
The Heat have some players listed as questionable, with Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kevin Love and Caleb Martin all on the injury report. And Duncan Robinson is already out. So, even though Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Terry Rozier will be out there for Miami, this is a game that should go Golden State’s way. The Warriors have been struggling lately, with the team being 4-6 both straight-up and against the spread in its last 10 games. But Golden State knows that it needs to start winning. The Houston Rockets are coming for that 10th seed, so the Warriors can’t mess around now. And Golden State is actually 13-1 when playing as a road favorite this year. The Warriors are also 9-4 when facing a team they lost to as a favorite earlier in the year.
For as bad as things have looked for Golden State lately, the team has a +2.4 net rating over the last 10 games. In that same span, Miami’s net rating is just +0.4. On top of that small edge for the Warriors, this team is also just a bit more talented than the Heat. Sure, Butler and Adebayo bring a lot of toughness and two-way intensity. But Miami doesn’t have anything like Golden State’s firepower from behind the 3-point line. If Steph Curry and Klay Thompson get it going, it’ll be hard for the Heat to answer without some of their best 3-point shooters.
Bet: Warriors ML (-125 – 2 units)
Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 pm ET
The Kings are 2-0 against the Mavericks this season, but Dallas should be able to get in the win column here. Both of these teams played last night, and the Mavericks had to make the quick trip over from Utah. So it’s hard to argue that Dallas has the advantage when it comes to rest here. But the Mavericks had three full days off before facing the Jazz last night. Meanwhile, Sacramento is playing its third game in four days. So, Dallas actually should be in a pretty good place here, and Sacramento might be a little fatigued. Domantas Sabonis also comes into this game a little banged up. He’s probably not a risk to miss this game, but he played a very physical game last night. Now, he’ll be working against Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II all evening. Both players are tough.
The Mavericks are also completely locked in on the defensive end right now. Over the last 10 games, Dallas is seventh in the league in defensive rating. This turnaround is a huge part of the reason that the Mavericks have won and covered in eight of their last nine games. With that in mind, look for the Mavericks to do a decent job of guarding a Kings team that isn’t as good defensively as we’ve seen in recent seasons. And offensively, we know that Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic can be counted on to torch anybody.
The Kings are also 15-31 ATS when playing at home after a home win under Mike Brown. This team has struggled to back up home victories.
Bet: Mavericks +1.5 (-112 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – March 26
Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks – 7:30 pm ET
This season, Austin Reaves is averaging 25.6 combined points, rebounds and assists per game. That’s a little lower than tonight’s total of 27.5, but this is also a game the Lakers are playing without LeBron James. That should mean more on-ball opportunities for Reaves, and he’ll be getting them against a Bucks team that is just 27th in the league in defensive rating over the last 10 games. Milwaukee is especially weak at the point of attack, and the team struggles to guard the 3-point line. So, Reaves should be able to do some damage with his jumper here. But I also like him to fill up the stat sheet, as he’ll have some success finding his teammates. And he can always be counted on to hit the glass.
Bet: Reaves Over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120 – 1.5 units)
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