The start of the 2024-25 NBA season is officially here. We have been waiting for this moment for quite some time, but we haven’t just been sitting on our butts. A couple of weeks ago, we dropped the 2024-25 VSiN NBA Betting Guide, complete with previews of all 30 teams, general NBA betting strategies and some of our favorite season-long futures. Make sure you check that out for some fantastic work from Jonathan Von Tobel, who writes up his best bets daily, and Kelley Bydlon, who constantly dishes out NBA picks as co-host of A Numbers Game. However, now that the real games are starting, you can expect a lot of NBA content from me. I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. With that in mind, let’s get it all started with my NBA best bets and NBA player props for Tuesday, October 22nd.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on October 22nd
NBA Best Bets Today – October 22nd
New York Knicks at Boston Celtics – 7:30 pm ET
The Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis indefinitely, as the big man needed surgery after last year’s championship run. Boston is rightfully going to be extremely careful with his rehab, as the end goal for this Celtics team is back-to-back titles. That means we shouldn’t see Porzingis until 2025, and that definitely puts a bit of a damper on NBA Opening Night. It would have been awesome to get a meeting between these teams at full strength, as the Knicks put together a roster that they genuinely believe can beat the Celtics in a seven-game series. And New York is going to come out swinging here. However, even without Porzingis in this game, I’d lay the points with Boston tonight.
Last season, the Celtics went 21-4 in regular-season games without Porzingis. That success stretched into the playoffs, as Boston was 10-2 without the Latvian when the games mattered most. There’s no world in which the Celtics are a better team without a 7-foot-2 big that can bomb 3s and protect the rim. But Boston is so loaded elsewhere that it can survive with Al Horford and Luke Kornet holding down the center position. I also wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a little more Xavier Tillman this season. The Celtics acquired him from the Grizzlies in February, so he should be fully up to speed after a full offseason to learn Joe Mazzulla’s system.
Speaking of Mazzulla, he’s a big part of the reason I like Boston tonight. I don’t think I’ve ever made a 180 on a coach like I have with Mazzulla. I once thought he’d need to be replaced if the Celtics were going to be serious about winning a title. Now, I view him as an offensive mastermind and one of the game’s best motivators. That’s a dangerous combination when you have defensive dogs like Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in your starting five.
I just don’t think we’re going to see much of a hangover from this Boston team. Just the other day, Mazzulla said that he feels no pressure when it comes to winning another title. In fact, he views it as an opportunity and wants to stack as many of them as possible while Boston has this core in place. In typical Mazzulla fashion, he also threw in that we’re all going to die one day and that none of this matters. But I like how focused he is on the new season and I believe that will rub off on his players — and they did start training with one another early compared to other teams, which is admirable for a team that won the title.
As far as the on-court stuff goes, I recognize that New York’s wing duo of OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges are better equipped to slow down Tatum and Brown than any other wing combination in the league. However, integrating Karl-Anthony Towns, a minus on the defensive end for most of his career, is going to be a challenge for Tom Thibodeau. Having a trustworthy defender in the back of a Thibs defense is extremely important, and I think it’ll take quite a bit of time for Towns to get there — if he ever does. Well, Mazzulla is definitely going to test that out quite a bit by having his guards do everything they can to bring Towns into the action. And I can just see his slow feet being a big problem in this game. The shooting of Bridges and Josh Hart might also be an issue. Bridges is tinkering with his shot and struggled in preseason, and Hart just doesn’t scare opponents from 3-point range. For a team that wants to play a five-out game against the Celtics, will the shooting be good enough?
I also am pretty confident that Boston is going to obliterate New York when we see bench-heavy lineups. One of the biggest weaknesses for this new-look Knicks team is its lack of depth, and that’s going to stand out against a Celtics team that really trusts its second unit.
It also has to be noted that Jalen Brunson will be defended by some of the best perimeter defenders in the league tonight. Sure, he has had success against Boston before, but no team has the ability to disrupt him like the Celtics can. So, while we’ve all gotten used to seeing Brunson put on his Superman cape over the last few years, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he doesn’t have the most efficient game.
Boston also happens to be 16-1 straight-up and 13-4 against the spread as a home favorite of 6 or fewer under Mazzulla. The Celtics have won those games by an average of 11.6 points per game.
Bet: Celtics -5 (-110)
NBA Player Props Today – October 22d
Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:00 pm ET
The other day, I wrote an article with some of my biggest preseason takeaways. I wanted to lay out some of the things I saw that might be useful for bettors heading into the regular season. Well, I seem to have completely missed the sportsbooks showing Anthony Davis very little respect as a 3-point shooter. If I saw Davis’ 3-point total (0.5) for tonight earlier, I probably would have gone into some detail about Los Angeles’ new-look offense under JJ Redick. The 40-year-old has stressed a much healthier shot diet for his Lakers team this year, and he has been adamant about wanting Davis to stretch things out to the 3-point line again.
In Davis’ first season with the Lakers (2019-20), he made 1.2 triples per game on 3.5 attempts per game. Since then, the big man has lost confidence in his shot. Davis has shot under 30.0% from 3 in each of the last four seasons, and he has attempted fewer than 2.0 per game in each of the last three. But Redick knows that Davis has good mechanics and a reliable mid-range jumper, so there’s no reason he can’t back up a couple of feet and start hitting 3s again. And doing so would really open things up for the rest of the offense.
In preseason, Davis understood the assignment. The nine-time All-Star shot 17 triples over four preseason games, and he even went 4 for 9 from deep in the final one he played. That said, Davis is entering the new season with a willingness to shoot, and he should be feeling confident about it.
Even though Minnesota was one of the best defensive teams in the league last year, I’m banking on Davis’ offseason work to yield immediate results. Also, if Rudy Gobert ends up defending Davis, I’ll like this even more. It would be a huge win for Los Angeles if Davis can take some outside shots and pull Gobert, the best rim protector in the league, away from the rim.
Bet: Davis Over 0.5 Made 3s (-111 – 1.5 units)
