Expert NBA Best Bets and Player Props Today – Tuesday, October 24th
The 2023-24 NBA season is finally here and we’re excited over here at VSiN. As always, Jonathan Von Tobel will be providing you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my best bets and player props. I’ll be doing this every single day of the week — although it’ll be a little shorter on the weekends. So, keep reading to find out how I’m starting the season off. Also, check out our NBA Odds page for the latest line movement.
NBA Best Bets Today – October 24
You’re going to want to make sure you shop around with this spread, as the number is all over the place. There are a few places that still have Denver as a 4.5-point favorite, and that’s where I’d go with this game. These teams just faced one another in the Western Conference Finals and that series ended in a 4-0 sweep for the Nuggets — who obviously went on to win the NBA championship. Denver won three of those four games by at least five points, and I think the team can do so tonight.
The Lakers are a team that I expect to contend in the Western Conference this season, but I do think it’ll take a little time for them to get comfortable with their rotation. Los Angeles brought in pieces like Gabe Vincent, Taurean Prince, Christian Wood and Jaxson Hayes over the summer, in addition to adding Jalen Hood-Schifino in the draft. That infusion of talent will only better the Lakers in the long run, but this team needs some time to build chemistry. That’s not true of the Nuggets, who return most of the team that won the title last year.
It’s obviously going to be something of a blow to Denver that Bruce Brown is now with the Indiana Pacers, but I think the Nuggets can deal with it on opening night. The Lakers likely won’t have much of an answer for Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic running the two-man game here. Let’s not forget that Denver is fresh off a playoff run in which the team had a 118.2 offensive rating, which is right up there with what the Sacramento Kings (118.6) had during the regular season last year. This team can execute at a high level in big spots, and I do think this game will have a playoff feel. The two teams have been talking about one another a lot since the end of last season.
On top of all that, it’s hard to ignore the home-court advantage the Nuggets have. Including the playoffs, Denver went 44-8 straight-up at Ball Arena last year. And the Nuggets were 30-21-1 against the spread in those games.
Bet: Nuggets -4.5 (-110 – Play to -5)
There are two key injuries heading into this game, as the Suns will likely be without Bradley Beal and the Warriors won’t have Draymond Green (check out our VSiN NBA Injury Report). All things considered, I think that trade-off helps Phoenix a lot more than it does Golden State. Green is still one of the game’s premier defensive players, and his ability to size up and play the center position would have made life difficult on the Suns — who likely would have had to counter with Kevin Durant playing minutes at the five. Without Green, we’ll likely see more traditional lineups in this game, with Jusuf Nurkic working against Kevon Looney for at least 30 or so minutes. And the Suns have the depth to replace a little of what Beal does, with Eric Gordon and Grayson Allen fully capable of holding the shooting guard spot down.
I had a slight lean on Phoenix when the team was getting only 1 in this game, but I like it more now that it’s at 3.5. So, I’d strongly suggest looking around and playing the Suns at that number — or close to it. However, my best bet for this game is on the Over. With Devin Booker and Durant on the floor together, surrounded by an array of 3-point shooters, I just don’t think the Warriors will be able to slow down the Suns offense in this game. Phoenix played at a quicker pace than usual when the starters played together in the preseason, which is the luxury of the team having gotten a lot younger in the offseason. If the Suns are running with the Warriors in this game, the Over should hit with relative ease. I have no doubts about Stephen Curry and Co. hanging a big number on Phoenix early in the season. The Suns have a ton of work to do defensively, with the team trying to implement Frank Vogel’s system with a roster that isn’t exactly defensive minded. That’s not something that’ll be fixed in a hurry.
For what it’s worth, the Over is also 16-5 in games the Suns have played on the road with a total of 230 or higher since the start of the 2021-22 season. And the average total points scored in those games was 241.4 points per game.
Bet: Over 232.5 (-110 – Play to 233.5)
NBA Player Props Today – October 24
I’m a little surprised to see Jokic’s assist total down at 9.5, and the fact you can get it at +100 odds is just gravy. This is a game that is expected to be relatively high scoring, and Jokic averaged 11.8 assists per game against this Lakers team in the playoffs last year. Of course, I wouldn’t expect Jokic to play 42 minutes in this game, which is what he averaged in that series. But I do think this is one that the Nuggets badly want to win, even if they won’t outright say it. With that in mind, I trust the best passer in the league to come up with 10 dimes on a big stage. Jokic reached this mark in 38 regular season games last year, and I can’t imagine him not looking to turn in a triple-double on opening night.
Bet: Jokic Over 9.5 Assists (+100)
Nurkic is an underrated playmaker at the center position. He has actually averaged at least 2.8 assists per game in six of the last seven seasons. Now, Nurkic will be playing with the most talent he has ever had around him, and he’ll actually be serving as one of the main hubs in Phoenix’s offense. It’s no secret that the Suns did not prioritize the point guard position this offseason, with the team instead turning to Booker and Beal to split duties as the lead guard. But the team is also going to run a lot of actions through Nurkic, who is one of the best centers in the league when it comes to finding cutters and giving them a chance to score. Nurkic actually had two games with at least three assists in the preseason, and he never played more than 21 minutes. I’d expect him to flirt with 30 minutes tonight, making 2.5 a very low assist total here. Depending on where you look, this play is juiced to about -250 on the Over. So, look around and get yourself a good price on this. But don’t expect Nurkic’s total to be available at 2.5 for long. I suspect he’ll settle in with a nightly total of 3.5 in a few weeks.
Bet: Nurkic Over 2.5 Assists (-127)
DraftKings Sportsbook Boosts & Offers
DraftKings Sportsbook has an interesting boost up for tonight, which features a parlay of LeBron James and Jokic both to have 20+ points at +100 odds. This is normally a play that would go off at -160 odds, so you might want to take advantage of it. LeBron scored at least 22 points in all four games in the Western Conference Finals last year, and Jokic scored at least 23 points in all four of those games.
DraftKings also happens to be offering a $10 bonus bet for NBA bettors to start the season. So, you should pounce on that while you can. Perhaps use it to parlay some of these picks together.
Did you know that you can parlay these picks together? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!