The start of the 2024-25 NBA season is officially here. We have been waiting for this moment for quite some time, but we haven’t just been sitting on our butts. A couple of weeks ago, we dropped the 2024-25 VSiN NBA Betting Guide, complete with previews of all 30 teams, general NBA betting strategies and some of our favorite season-long futures. Make sure you check that out for some fantastic work from Jonathan Von Tobel, who writes up his best bets daily, and Kelley Bydlon, who constantly dishes out NBA picks as co-host of A Numbers Game. However, now that the real games are starting, you can expect a lot of NBA content from me. I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. With that in mind, let’s try to build off a great Opening Night with some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Wednesday, October 23rd.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on October 23rd
2024-25 NBA Record: 2-0 (+2.50 units)
NBA Best Bets Today – October 23rd
Orlando Magic at Miami Heat – 7:30 pm ET
I wrote a little about Miami’s new offense in my preseason takeaways story, but the long and short of it is that the Heat are going to significantly cut down on bad mid-range attempts this year. Last year, Miami was first in the league in mid-range shot frequency (35.6%), according to Cleaning The Glass. This season, Erik Spoelstra went into training camp emphasizing a shot diet that heavily features rim attempts and a meaningful increase in 3s. All of that should ultimately improve Miami’s spacing, meaning more room when guys like Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo do opt to self-create in the mid-range area.
Those changes on offense are enough for me to deal with some juice in the Heat’s home opener against the Magic. Both of these teams are absolutely remarkable defensively. Last year, Miami was seventh in the league in defensive rating, while Orlando was third in the NBA in that category. But I think the Heat will be able to create better looks than the Magic in this game, especially considering Orlando won’t have a lot of film on what Miami is looking to run.
I know the Magic signed Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in the summer, and he should be able to improve their spacing this season. But Miami was third in the league in 3P% defense (35.7%) last year. This Heat team can really guard the 3-point line, so I’m not anticipating a breakthrough from the Magic just yet. Also, Orlando was first in the league in rim attempt frequency (38.5%) last season, but will the Magic be able to consistently get to the basket against this Heat defense? I don’t think so. There’s a reason the Heat went 3-1 both straight-up and against the spread in this head-to-head series last year.
I also think it’s worth pointing out that the Magic are just 25-37 SU in games with lines of +3 to -3 under head coach Jamahl Mosley. This Orlando team has made some real improvements over the last two years, but the group struggles in games that are expected to be tough. Meanwhile, these are the games that Spoelstra loves.
Bet: Heat ML (-130)
NBA Player Props Today – October 23rd
Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:30 pm ET
With Joel Embiid and Paul George out for the season opener, Tyrese Maxey is going to have the ultimate green light. There are a lot of different ways you can use that information to attack the player props market, as you can go Over on his points or assists — or a combination of both. But I’m just rolling with Maxey to go Over 3.5 made 3s here. Maxey got a little banged up in his final preseason game, but he hit at least four 3s in two of his previous four. And in both of the games in which he played at least 25 minutes, Maxey shot at least seven 3s. I’d be really surprised if Maxey doesn’t end up attempting close to 10 triples in this one.
Philadelphia made some nice offeseason moves, but the team doesn’t have many players that can create their own looks. So, Maxey is going to need to be aggressive in hunting his shot tonight. And while I do think the Bucks will continue to make strides defensively under Doc Rivers this season, I don’t trust this team to defend elite guards on the perimeter. Maxey also made at least three 3s in each of his three meetings with Milwaukee last season. And in his final game against the Bucks, he knocked down five of them. Considering his usage rate tonight, he should flirt with that number again.
Bet: Maxey Over 3.5 Made 3s (+100)
Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz – 9:00 pm ET
Last season, Keyonte George averaged 15.8 points per game over his final 28 starts. He also finished the year by scoring at least 20 points in three of his last five games. This is a player that could be in for a massive leap in Year 2. George is a good downhill driver and an improving 3-point shooter. He also isn’t shy about getting shots up. That said, George should get his in a game that has one of the highest totals on the board (229).
The Grizzlies are going to be a better basketball team this season, as they have a healthy Ja Morant back and also have better health throughout their rotation. But Morant is not a boost to the team’s perimeter defense, and I’m just not sure Memphis has anybody that can consistently stay in front of George. Also, Jaren Jackson Jr. is out for the next couple of days, meaning the Grizzlies won’t have the luxury of funneling guards into the paint to meet one of the league’s best rim protectors.
I just wouldn’t be surprised if George finds success attacking the basket in this game. He should also be a threat to score in transition, and I like him to knock down a few 3s at home. That’s why I’m going Over on his 13.5-point total, but I’m also sprinkling him to score at least 20.
Bet: George Over 13.5 Points (-130 – 1.5 units) & George To Score 20+ Points (+280 – 0.5 units)
