The 2023-24 NBA regular season is over and we have turned the page to the NBA Playoffs. Throughout the postseason, Jonathan Von Tobel will continue to provide you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the playoff games on Friday, May 10th. Also, check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our series previews and additional postseason content.
We also put together an NBA Playoffs Betting Primer with in-depth analysis for everything you’ll see the next couple of weeks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 10
NBA Best Bets Today – May 10
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves – 9:30 pm ET
It seems like everybody has given up on the Nuggets. Considering what we saw in Game 2, it’s hard to blame them. Minnesota went into Denver and took the lunch from the defending champs. And the Nuggets absolutely unraveled mentally there, with Jamal Murray launching items onto the court and Mike Malone losing his mind on an official. But I still find it difficult to just write this Nuggets team off. It’s easy to forget that Denver had control of Game 1 at one point, but the team came unglued in the second half. But do you really expect that to happen regularly with the Nuggets? And do you also expect the best team in basketball for the better part of two years to go out without a whimper?
I know the Timberwolves have absurd length and athleticism scattered throughout their rotation, but I still think there’s another gear the Nuggets can get to offensively in this series. They just need to be a little more creative and process-oriented to get Jamal Murray in space. And you can count Murray out because of his injury all you want, but he’s capable of doing better than averaging 12.5 points and 3.0 assists per game on 28.1% shooting from the field and 25.0% shooting from 3. And he’s capable of doing that on one leg. And if Murray does turn things around, that will then unlock all of the other wrinkles the Nuggets have in their offense. There’s also the possibility that Nikola Jokic takes matters into his own hands and plays a very aggressive game as a scorer. And while he has had some trouble dissecting this defense the way he does others, I think he can do quite a bit of damage if he hunts his own buckets.
It’s also just a little hard to imagine Minnesota’s offense continuing to hum to this same tune all playoffs. The Timberwolves are clearly better than they showed during the regular season, but how can they be this much better? Overall, I just think there’s a decent chance things even out a bit the rest of the way. So I’m taking a shot on Denver to make this a game and potentially make this a series again.
Bet: Nuggets +4 (-110 – 1.5 units) & Nuggets ML (+150 – 0.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – May 10
New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 pm ET
Pascal Siakam is going through something with his jumper right now. The 30-year-old is just 1 for 6 from behind the 3-point line in this series, and he’s shooting just 25.0% from deep in the playoffs. On top of that, Siakam has the yips at the free throw line. He’s shooting just 43.8% from the charity stripe, and he’s doing so on 4.0 attempts per game. So, it’s not like this is some small sample size. With that in mind, it might seem hard to come around on backing Siakam to go Over his point total. But I still think the forward will come through with at least 21 points tonight.
With OG Anunoby out for the Knicks, the team just doesn’t have any great options for Siakam defensively. Anunoby has the size, strength and speed to stay in front of Siakam and make him work for everything. But New York will now be throwing undersized options on Siakam, or the team will play Precious Achiuwa more. Achiuwa has done a good job bringing energy off the bench in this series, but I think he’s a little too stiff to cover Siakam off the bounce. That said, Siakam should be able to get a lot going at the basket in this game. Perhaps that will give him the confidence he needs to figure out his shot. But he can score 21 without it.
Bet: Siakam Over 20.5 Points (-125)
Knicks vs. Pacers – Quick Series Thought
I don’t normally do anything but my best bets and player props in these articles, but I wanted to quickly note that I like the Pacers at +280 or better to win the series. I’m not willing to lay 7.5 points tonight, as 7 is too important of a number and I’m not even sure what a lopsided win over this ferocious Knicks team looks like. But I do think Indiana will pretty comfortably win these next two games. The Pacers have played the Knicks extremely close thus far, and a good argument can be made that this should be 1-1 right now. And while Indiana is probably bummed to be down 2-0, Rick Carlisle will be stressing to his team that this series is still extremely winnable. The Knicks are losing players left and right, and the rest of their rotation players are going to get tired eventually. And even if you ignore that, the Pacers can turn this around by simply playing a little smarter defensively. That said, I’d be pretty surprised if this isn’t 2-2 heading back to New York. And that alone would make it worth holding a +280 ticket. Indiana is going to make this a real battle, and the team is good enough to pull off this comeback.
Pick: Pacers To Win Series (+280)
2023-24 Record: 359-392-3 (+9.37 units)
