The 2023-24 NBA regular season is over and we have turned the page to the NBA Playoffs. Throughout the postseason, Jonathan Von Tobel will continue to provide you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the playoff games on Monday, April 29th. Also, check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our series previews and additional postseason content.
We also put together an NBA Playoffs Betting Primer with in-depth analysis for everything you’ll see the next couple of weeks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 29
NBA Best Bets Today – April 29
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat – 7:30 pm ET
I played the Over on Game 3 in this series and the two teams didn’t come close. However, the Celtics shot just 29.7% from 3 in that game, despite shooting 38.8% from deep during the regular season. Meanwhile, the Heat shot 32.1% from 3 after a Game 2 in which they shot 53.5%. So, we should see some positive regression from both of these teams in Game 4. And that alone should be enough to send this game Over this low of a total.
I do, however, expect Miami to do the heavy lifting when it comes to making this game look different than Game 3 did. Maybe Miami won’t score 111 like it did in Game 2, but the team is fully capable of hitting the 100-point mark. And that’s especially true after a blowout loss. Erik Spoelstra has proven throughout his career that he is capable of making massive adjustments in the postseason. He should have his Miami team ready to go in Game 4, even if it is a shorthanded group.
Bet: Over 203.5 (-105 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – April 29
Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:30 pm ET
Chet Holmgren has failed to reach nine rebounds in back-to-back games, but I like him to hit that mark tonight. Holmgren had 11 boards in the first game in this series, and there’s just no reason he can’t get back to that in Game 4. Holmgren has averaged 14.5 rebound chances per game over the last two contests, so the opportunities have been there for him. He just needs a little more luck in coming down with them. And the Pelicans have been going small with Jonas Valanciunas struggling in this series. So, there will be plenty of times in which Holmgren will be the biggest player on the court. He just needs to take advantage of that.
Bet: Holmgren Over 8.5 Rebounds (-110)
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets – 10:00 pm ET
Christian Braun didn’t score a single point in Game 4, but he had at least five points in Games 2 and 3. Now, the Nuggets will likely need to lean a little heavier on the 23-year-old, as both Murray and Jackson are banged up. It does seem like there’s a chance both will play, and Jackson is listed as probable. But Jackson is already a weak defender, so Mike Malone might want to give Braun some of his minutes. And if Murray does miss this game, Braun will play at least 20 minutes. With that in mind, there’s a lot of value in taking Braun to score Over 4.5 points. Not only has he done it in his normal role in two of the four games in this series, but he could be in for an expanded workload.
Bet: Braun Over 4.5 Points (-104 – 1.5 units)
2023-24 Record: 345-369-3 (-2.45 units)
