The 2023-24 NBA regular season is over and we have turned the page to the NBA Playoffs. Throughout the postseason, Jonathan Von Tobel will continue to provide you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the playoff games on Thursday, May 9th. Also, check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our series previews and additional postseason content.
We also put together an NBA Playoffs Betting Primer with in-depth analysis for everything you’ll see the next couple of weeks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 9
NBA Best Bets Today – May 9
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder – 9:30 pm ET
Oklahoma City won Game 1 by 22 points and looked like a much better basketball team on both ends of the floor. However, I still have a hard time laying off Dallas as a 5-point underdog. I know Luka Doncic didn’t look healthy in the series opener, but the Mavericks are doing everything they can to get the superstar ready. And Doncic is a player that has played through pain in the past. So, I trust that he can still turn in a big offensive performance, even with the Thunder having a few players they can throw on him in this series. We should also see a more aggressive version of Kyrie Irving, who took only 14 shots in Game 1. And if those two play a little better in this game, Dallas should be live. And that’s especially true when you factor in the law of averages from the 3-point line.
In Game 1, the Thunder went 16 for 35 from behind the 3-point line. Oklahoma City shot the best 3-point percentage in the league during the regular season, drilling 38.9% from deep. But 45.7% in a playoff game is a little crazy, especially against a Dallas team that can really defend. So, I’d expect the Thunder to struggle to reach that number again, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they come crashing back to Earth. Meanwhile, Dallas was just 12 for 35 from 3 in Game 1, shooting 34.3% from 3. But the Mavericks made 14.6 3s per game during the regular season and shot 36.9% from deep. So, they can definitely be a little better from 3-point land.
I also just trust Jason Kidd to make the proper adjustments heading into tonight. Dallas did a good job bouncing back from losses against the Los Angeles Clippers last round. And while this Oklahoma City team is a completely different beast, I don’t think much separates the two teams we’ll see on the court tonight. So, I’m happy to take the points and sprinkle the moneyline with a team I liked to win the series originally. Winning in Oklahoma City certainly isn’t easy, but it isn’t impossible. And having a good defense and two incredible isolation scorers is a good recipe for showing up in a difficult environment.
Bet: Mavericks +5 (-110 – 2 units) & Mavericks ML (+175 – 0.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – May 9
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics – 7:00 pm ET
Donovan Mitchell averaged 28.7 points per game in Cleveland’s first round series against the Orlando Magic. And the star guard scored a total of 89 points in the final two games of that series. Then, Mitchell went out and scored 33 points on 12 of 25 shooting in Game 1 of this series. Cleveland is just such a mess offensively that the team’s best option is to roll the ball out to Mitchell and let him do whatever he wants. That’s why he has the second-highest usage rate of any player in the playoffs. And that’s enough for me to back Mitchell to score at least 30 points tonight. Even if Mitchell doesn’t do it efficiently, I just can’t see him struggling to put points on the board. Boston has guys that can make things tough on Mitchell, but the team is opting to stay at home on him and not let anybody else beat them. And as long as Mitchell sees enough isolation opportunities, he should hit the 30-point mark.
Bet: Mitchell Over 29.5 Points (-109)
2023-24 Record: 357-391-3 (+7.58 units)
