Happy Thanksgiving folks! The holiday season is upon us and it is Feast Week in college hoops, but that doesn’t mean we can forget about the Association.
This week, we have a deep dive into two adjusted win total bets worth making in the Eastern Conference. We also got an early look from the media in how award ballots are shaping up just one month into the season.
Remember, always check out what Zach Cohen has cooking each day in the NBA, and also make sure you get in our Black Friday Special which gives you everything on the website at a cheap price all the way until May!
Magic In The Air
Despite losing Paolo Banchero to a torn oblique before November the Orlando Magic have been rolling. Orlando’s win over Charlotte on Monday night was its third straight and ninth in 10 contests. Since losing Banchero the Magic are 9-4 SU/8-5 ATS with a +3.8 net rating in non-garbage time.
Much of that success is due to Orlando’s defense, which continues to be among the very best in the league. The Magic are second in defensive rating since Banchero’s injury, having allowed 106.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. They have the second-best turnover rate (18.3%) and the fourth-best halfcourt defensive rating (90.1) over that span.
We also seem to have a timeline for Banchero’s return. Orlando’s star forward told Andscape’s Marc Spears that he is hoping to return before Christmas. That would be massive for the Magic, as they desperately need him despite the success without him.
In the 13 games since his injury Orlando has averaged only 109.7 points per 100 possessions. That is the sixth-worst offensive rating over that time. In only 182 minutes this season Banchero has improved the Magic’s offensive rating by 8.8 points per 100 possessions. He also does not take away from Orlando’s defensive ability.
So, why bring all of this up? Because Orlando is entering the easy portion of its schedule.
According to Positive Residual the Magic have the easiest remaining strength of schedule. Positive Residual factors in more than just opponent record into its strength of schedule metric. Even by that measure Orlando has the easiest schedule left in the league. It will also play 32 of its remaining games at home, and they have nine games with a rest advantage compared to just five with a disadvantage.
The current adjusted win total for Orlando is just 48.5 at FanDuel and it is juiced to the under. It is two wins higher than the closing total of 46.5 for the Magic before the season began, but it is worth playing over once you consider all the factors.
The team’s best player is returning in less than a month. They have the league’s easiest remaining schedule by multiple different measures. Speaking of, the Magic do not leave the eastern time zone again until Jan. 15 when they go to Milwaukee. Twelve of those 20 games until then will be played in Orlando.
This should be a 50-win team when the season ends, and the time to jump on their adjusted win total is now.
Fear The Deer
There are probably not many franchises happier with the continued failings of the Philadelphia 76ers than the Milwaukee Bucks. Not that there is any personal animosity between the two franchises, but the abject disaster of a season for the 76ers has allowed the Bucks to quietly work on a catastrophic start of their own.
Milwaukee is 6-1 SU/3-4 ATS in its last seven games. It enters its NBA Cup meeting with Miami on Tuesday with a 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS winning streak. Over the course of the last seven games the Bucks have outscored opponents by 7.1 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. Even better, is that the team has the eighth-best defensive rating over that stretch (110.2).
The team does have some reinforcements on the way as well. Last week it was reported that Khris Middleton was medically cleared to play, and his return is looming for the Bucks. When Milwaukee had Middleton on the floor with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard it had a +16.3 net rating. The Bucks ranked in the 98th percentile in offensive rating with that trio (125.6). Middleton might not be the exact same player right away, but he fits with Antetokounmpo and Lillard and that group should be great together once again.
Then we have Antetokounmpo himself. The Greek Freak has thrust himself into MVP contention with an incredible season. On the year, he is averaging a career-high – and league leading – 32.4 points per game, 11.9 rebounds and 6.4 assists on 60.8% shooting. In his last three games he has scored a total of 110 points on 64.2% shooting. It is a level of play on par with his previous MVP seasons.
Now, factor in what the Bucks have going forward. The 10th-easiest schedule according to Positive Residual. They have the fifth-easiest schedule, according to Tankathon. If the improvements on defense are real, and should Antetokounmpo continue to play at this level, this is another team which is in contention to surpass its adjusted win total.
The current number for Milwaukee is 45.5 which is four wins fewer than its preseason win total of 49.5 at most shops. The team’s ability to contend against the likes of Boston, Cleveland and New York is still a question. But, it can certainly win 46 games in an Eastern Conference which only have four teams with a winning record.
Early Season Awards
Just yesterday ESPN released an article polling their analysts on awards through the first month of the season. It is only one outlet, but it is one with a lot of pull. It can give us an idea of how the narrative is being set, and we can see if the market is not in tune with those who actually decide the award.
One of the biggest discrepancies that sticks out in the article is with MVP. Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic – the +200 favorite to win the award at DraftKings – did receive 67% of the first-place votes. What is not in line with the market, is where Anthony Davis stands. The Lakers center received 25% of first place votes, and was second in the voting. He is tied with Anthony Edwards for fifth-most likely winner at +1500 which is behind Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1100), who only received six total points.
If we are to believe this poll is giving us a somewhat accurate sense of how these awards are shaping up, then there is value in Davis winning Defensive Player of the Year as well.
Victor Wembanyama did receive 67% of first-place votes for the award, but in second was Davis once again. However, he is +1600 at DraftKings, just ahead of Draymond Green (+1800) who finished tied for second with Davis. On the oddsboard, three players are ahead of those two: Jaren Jackson Jr., Evan Mobley and Dyson Daniels. Of those three, only one player got more than three points in the poll: Daniels.
Speaking of Daniels, according to ESPN he should be the favorite to win Most Improved Player of the Year. The young wing player received 33% of first-place votes for the award in this straw poll. DraftKings has him at +1200 to win the award, behind his teammate Jalen Johnson who actually finished tied for fourth.
This also gave us some unique insight into how voters will view candidates like Norm Powell, and it isn’t great for those who have the veteran to win the award. Powell received just three points and no first-place votes from ESPN analysts.
Once again, this is not a perfect science. But, articles like this are integral to the process of handicapping these awards. It gives us an idea of where voters are already looking, and narratives set early in the season have stronger legs for the entirety of the season than people think.
