Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Hope the holiday treats you well, and I hope you get a day of sports and fun on this Black Friday.
Today, we’ve got some great topics to dissect. Los Angeles started a new lineup on Wednesday, and I think there might be something to monitor in SoCal with it. Atlanta is healthy and looking good too, so I dive into the Hawks’ future. I also update you on the latest in the NBA Cup groups, and look at some of the more impactful games on tonight’s card.
Remember, always check out Zach Cohen’s work for the daily NBA wagers, and if you’re reading this for free make sure to take advantage of our Black Friday Special!
Lakers’ New Lineup
On Wednesday evening Lakers head coach JJ Redick was looking for a spark. Los Angeles had lost three straight, and two of those results were by 25 or more points. So, he changed his starting lineup. Rookie Dalton Knecht replaced Cam Reddish in the starting five, meaning Redick would roll with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura – along with Knecht – to start the contest with San Antonio.
The final result was a positive one for the Lakers. Los Angeles would go on to win and cover 119-101 and snap its three-game slide. The Lakers averaged 1.25 points per possession – a mark that is the fifth-highest single game offensive rating on the season for the team – and all five started scored 13 or more points.
This change to the starting lineup was a clear sign that Redick is leaning on his team’s offense. Los Angeles is 24th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency this season (117.7). The Lakers lack a strong point-of-attack defender, and it has shown both this season and last when they finished 16th in defense. This new lineup is not going to stop anyone, but it will score. That’s why I believe playing these games with Los Angeles’ new lineup over the total is worth a shot.
Now, we should get the obvious out of the way: The Lakers’ first game with the new lineup went under the preflop total. However, the second half was much more representative of what we could see moving forward. The game went over the second half total of 110 and both teams were successful on offense. Los Angeles averaged 1.326 points per possession, but allowed 1.174 per possession.
As previously stated, that new lineup is not an amazing defensive group. When those five were on the floor they averaged 1.211 points per possession – good for the 87th percentile of lineups in offensive rating – but allowed 1.175 per possession, according to Cleaning The Glass. Their shot profile is very analytically sound as well. That lineup took 35.7% of its attempts at the rim and 44.6% from beyond the arc. That should only increase the ability to score.
Tonight’s contest will be a good litmus test for the theory. Los Angeles faces Oklahoma City at home. The preflop total has been bet up from 229.5 to 231.5 at most shops. Whether that is due to my theory or otherwise, the market sees a higher scoring affair tonight with the Thunder. Still, tracking these Lakers totals and getting something out of betting them over moving forward will be my strategy.
Healthy Hawks A Problem?
One of the biggest shockers of Wednesday night was Cleveland’s outright loss as a 9.5-point favorite to Atlanta. The win was the Hawks’ second as a moneyline underdog of +330 or better – they beat the Celtics on opening night of NBA Cup play as a +900 moneyline underdog – and it could be a sign of things to come for Atlanta.
Health was the biggest factor in the Hawks’ poor start to the season. Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter and Kobe Bufkin have all yet to appear in 10 games this season due to missed time. Only two players – Clint Capela and rookie Zaccharie Risacher have appeared in all 19 games for Atlanta this season. There are not any teams that have perfect health, but Larry Nance Jr., Garrison Matthews, David Roddy and Keaton Wallace all have started due to those injury issues.
Atlanta is now healthy though, and this could be a problem for the league moving forward.
The Hawks have a plethora of talent along the wing this season. That is headlined by Dyson Daniels and Jalen Johnson. When those two are on the floor with Trae Young, Atlanta has a +3.9 net rating and it limits opponents to 112.5 points per 100 possessions. The Hawks’ starting group – that trio with Risacher and Capela – is only +0.7 per 100 possessions, but that is due to a very average offense. When the rookie is replaced with De’Andre Hunter, the Hawks are a staggering +14.9 per 100 possessions.
Head coach Quinn Snyder is starting to lean into his trio of wings. He closed the win over Cleveland with Young, Daniels, Johnson and Hunter on the floor with Onyeka Okongwu. Risacher played just two minutes in the fourth quarter and Capela played just three. When Young is on the floor with those three, Atlanta has allowed just 1.10 points per possession.
The market seems to be on the same track as I am here, but the Hawks are taking money for a second straight game. The Cavaliers might have revenge on the mind, but that is easier said than done. Regardless, as long as this team stays healthy, Atlanta might not only be worth playing regularly, it might also be worth a long-term wager. One can find this team at +210 to make the playoffs, which is a price worth investing in considering how poor the bottom of the Eastern Conference looks.
NBA Cup Check-In
It is Black Friday, so that means we have another day of group play in the NBA Cup. Remember, point differential is vital to move on, so let’s take a look at some of the more important games on the card.
Cleveland-Atlanta
The aforementioned Hawks thrust themselves into NBA Cup contention when it beat the Celtics outright to begin group play. Atlanta is behind Chicago for first in East Group C, but a win over the Cavaliers would go a long way toward clinching the group, as it would have head-to-head wins over Boston and Cleveland. The Bulls have yet to the play the Celtics, but they do have the head-to-head over the Hawks, meaning they would win the group if both finish 3-1 in group play.
Detroit-Indiana
The Pistons are one of two group winner wagers I wrote up in the NBA Cup preview a few weeks back. Detroit was 13-1 to win East Group B and is 2-0 in group play with wins over Miami and Toronto. A win here for the Pistons would set up a winner-take-all meeting with the Bucks in Detroit to end group play. The Pacers are 0-2 in group play and would be eliminated from contention for a wild card spot with a loss.
Boston-Chicago
This contest looms large in East Group C. Chicago owns a win over Atlanta and Washington, but lost to Cleveland. A win today over the Celtics with a Hawks win over the Cavaliers would clinch the group for the Bulls. Chicago was 13-1 to win the group before NBA Cup play began, which would be a nice cash, but it is a 12-point underdog at home this evening.
Oklahoma City-Los Angeles
A win here for Oklahoma City would put it in the driver’s seat for West Group B. Los Angeles lost to Phoenix by 27 points on Tuesday, putting it at 2-1 in the group with a -16 point differential (Darvin Ham would never). A loss here would drop the Lakers out of contention for the group while giving the Thunder the lead – they beat the Suns to open group play – and the ability to clinch with a win in the finale against Utah.
