On Sunday, May 25th, the New York Knicks travel to Gainbridge Fieldhouse for a must-win Game 3 against the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals. Keep reading for odds, predictions and best bets for this exciting showdown, but make sure you also check out the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for the rest of our written content. We have a ton of people breaking down the action in the postseason. We’re also talking ball regularly on our live programming, so now is a great time to be a VSiN subscriber.
How To Watch Knicks vs. Pacers – Game 3
Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana
When: 8:00 pm ET on Sunday, May 25th
Channel: TNT / Max
Knicks vs. Pacers Odds – Game 3
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Saturday, May 25th at 7:00 pm ET)
Moneyline: Pacers -135, Knicks +114
Spread: Pacers -2 (-112), Knicks +2 (-108)
Total: Over 223 (-110), Under 223 (-110)
Knicks vs. Pacers Prediction – Game 3
The Pacers are undoubtedly in great position in this series, and they’re probably getting excited about the possibility of sweeping the Knicks. Winning two games on the road to start the series will do that. However, Indiana doesn’t have to win this game in order to win the series. Splitting the next two games would be enough, as a 3-1 series lead would likely be too difficult for New York to overcome. With that in mind, the Pacers might not come to the game with as much intensity as the Knicks, who simply can’t afford to let this one go. New York isn’t going to come back from 3-0 down against a team that is right on its level. That fight-or-flight feeling should lead to a stronger defensive effort from the Knicks, even in an arena full of some of the best fans in the NBA.
There has undeniably been a focus on attacking Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns in this series, and those two have just been miserable guarding both on and off the ball. Through two games, the Knicks have a defensive rating of 150 with those two on the floor, and that duo’s struggles defensively could ultimately be what does New York in. But let’s not forget that the Knicks had a 99.7% chance of winning Game 1 with 2:51 remaining, and Game 2 wasn’t exactly a blowout. New York actually led by as many as seven in the game, and it was tied heading into the fourth quarter. I say all of that to say that there’s very little that separates these two, even if there are things to pick at when looking at the way the Knicks are defending.
Realistically, if Tom Thibodeau just shrinks his rotation, we could see New York get back in the win column. One of the big mistakes he made in Game 2 was leaving Cameron Payne in too long. The backup guard was a -9 in nine minutes, and Brunson played only 39 minutes. With the season on the line, Thibodeau might have to play Brunson closer to 45 minutes. The Knicks star is getting whatever he wants offensively in this series, and I don’t exactly see that changing. It’s just crucial that Brunson avoids picking up cheap fouls. He was in foul trouble in Game 1, and the Pacers are doing a good job of forcing him to defend more. That means discipline will be imperative.
Another change Thibodeau might need to make is playing Miles McBride and Mitchell Robinson more. Both players were +6 in Game 2, and they did play more in that one. Robinson played 29 minutes in the game, finishing with six points, nine boards and three blocks. Meanwhile, McBride played 25 minutes and had five points while also playing some tremendous perimeter defense. Josh Hart just might need to play closer to 25 minutes than 30, as his inability to shoot and spread the floor is making it way too easy on Indiana to defend. McBride offers feisty point-of-attack defense and some decent 3-point shooting. And Robinson has just done a good job of hiding some of Towns’ deficiencies by putting a lid on the rim and gobbling up offensive rebounds.
For as bad as Towns can be defensively, I’m not sure we’ll see another 39-point game out of Pascal Siakam in this series. Siakam was absolutely cooking in Game 2, as he shot 15 for 23 from the floor and 3 for 5 from 3. That came after a Game 1 in which he had 17 points on 7 for 16 shooting from the field and 0 for 2 shooting from 3, and he really never felt like a factor. That Game 2 offensive outburst just feels a little like an outlier for a player that is good but not great, and a dip in production should make Towns look more serviceable on the defensive end.
I will note that it’s a little scary hoping for sound adjustments from Thibodeau, and that’s especially true when it comes to a series with Rick Carlisle on the other sideline. The Pacers coach is an NBA champion that is still amongst the league’s best, and he has coached circles around Thibodeau throughout this series. But some of the decisions are right there for Thibodeau. Just not playing Payne would be a start. From there, he’ll just need to put some trust in his team to show up in a desperation spot. And considering the mental toughness we have seen from New York throughout the postseason, it’s hard not to trust the group.
The Pacers have also been prone to some letdowns in Game 3s. The Pacers lost by 16 against a bad Bucks team in Game 3 of the first series, and they lost by 22 on their own home floor against the Cavaliers in a similar spot to this one in the second round. All in all, Indiana is just 2-3 straight up in Game 3s under Carlisle. And Carlisle was 8-16 in Game 3s before arriving in Indiana.
Bet: Knicks ML (+117)
Knicks vs. Pacers Player Props – Game 3
If I had to take a player prop in this game, I’d go with McBride to knock down two 3s at +155 odds. Even if McBride doesn’t play more in Game 3, he should be able to flirt with two triples in 25 minutes. McBride isn’t shy about letting it fly. He took three 3s in Game 1 and then fired four in Game 2. And while he only made one in both of those games, McBride is plenty capable of making multiple. He hit at least two 3s in the final three games of the Celtics series, and he also made two in Game 1 of that series. That came in less playing time, and it was against a better defensive team.
Pick: McBride Over 1.5 Made 3s (+155)
