On Tuesday, December 10th, the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Dallas Mavericks in the quarterfinals of the Emirates NBA Cup. We’re going to dive into all the individual matchups in this exciting tournament. That said, keep reading for odds, picks and player props for this game, and make sure you also check out our live VSiN programming for more analysis. Our talented hosts and analysts will surely spend some time talking about these games. After all, the final three games of this tournament will be played in our backyard, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Mavericks vs. Thunder
When: Tuesday, December 10th at 9:30 pm ET
Where: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Channel: TNT
Mavericks vs. Thunder Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, December 9th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Thunder -185, Mavericks +154
Spread: Thunder -4 (-112), Mavericks +4 (-108)
Total: Over 229 (-108), Under 229 (-112)
Mavericks vs. Thunder Analysis
There are a lot of favorable betting trends that support Oklahoma City here. Under Mark Daigneault, the Thunder are 48-33-2 against the spread when facing opponents that outscore teams by at least 3.0 points per game. Oklahoma City is also 44-29-1 ATS as a home favorite under him. However, that cover percentage of 59.5% goes down to 51.4% when the team is favored by 6 or fewer points. And at what point is this just a brutal matchup for the Thunder? Not only did they lose to the Mavericks in six games in last year’s Western Conference Semifinals, but Dallas went into Oklahoma City and earned a 121-119 win as a 7.5-point underdog when the teams met on November 17th. That was also a game in which Luka Doncic didn’t play.
The one thing that does stand out about the November meeting is that Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford gave the Thunder all kinds of problems on the glass. In fact, the two of them combined to bring down nine offensive boards in the game. And that active, athletic center duo was a problem for Oklahoma City in last year’s playoffs. But the Thunder do have Isaiah Hartenstein back from his lengthy layoff. In the eight games Hartenstein has played, the Thunder have a rebound rate of 49.8%. That’s up a good amount from 47.5% over the course of the entire season. Hartenstein was a big part of the reason the Knicks were such a force on the boards last season. He’s going to take pride in keeping Lively and Gafford in check. The only problem is that Hartenstein has picked up five fouls in three of the eight games he has played thus far. Oklahoma City can’t afford to have him in foul trouble here.
While Hartenstein will help the Thunder on the glass, it’s still hard not to like the Mavericks. Dallas is the hottest team in the league right now, as the team has won 11 of its last 12 games. Oddly enough, the Thunder have a slightly net rating than the Mavericks in that span. But we’re talking about +11.9 versus +11.6. And I’m not sure playing in Oklahoma City will make up the difference. Also, those numbers are slightly skewed by the Thunder having won games against the Jazz and Raptors by a total of 64 points.
Dallas’ offense is the reason to take the points here. Over the last 12 games, the Mavericks are third in the league in offensive rating. And while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can probably match Luka Doncic’s offensive output, Kyrie Irving is the most reliable No. 2 option in this game. Also, while Oklahoma City misses Chet Holmgren’s defense, his ability to knock down shots and open up the court for his teammates will be missed even more against a good Dallas defense.
Realistically, this is the best matchup of the four quarter-final games, and it just feels like taking the points is the best thing you can do. A lot of people are also jumping on the Over, which has gone from 227 to 229 since this game was first listed. The Over has hit in back-to-back meetings between these two. But I don’t love going Over on games that feature top-10 defenses — even if both of these teams are also top 10 in pace of play.
Mavericks vs. Thunder Player Props
P.J. Washington Over 1.5 Made 3s (+105)
Washington is listed as questionable with an illness in this game, but I like him to knock down two 3s if he plays. In case you forgot, Washington went nuclear when these teams met in the playoffs last year. He shot 46.9% from 3 on 8.2 attempts per game in the six-game series, and he made at least two 3s in all six of those contests. Washington also happened to go 3 for 4 from deep when these teams met in November. For whatever reason, Oklahoma City is happy with Washington taking uncontested catch-and-shoot triples. Well, if the Thunder continue to dare him to shoot, I think Washington will make them pay.
Mavericks vs. Thunder Pick
I’m going to jump on both the Mavericks and the Washington prop here. Of course, I would feel much better about Dallas with a spread of +5, but I genuinely think the Mavericks have a great shot at winning this one outright. And it’s hard not to like the plus-money odds on Washington to do something that he has done in each of his last seven meetings with the Thunder.
Bet: Mavericks +4.5 (-110) & Washington Over 1.5 Made 3s (+105)
