On Christmas Day, the Golden State Warriors host the Dallas Mavericks at the Chase Center. This game is smack in the middle of the NBA’s five-game slate on December 25, 2025. Keep reading for odds, picks, and player props for this game, and make sure you also check out our live VSiN programming for more analysis. Our talented hosts and analysts will surely spend some time talking about these games.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Mavericks vs. Warriors
When: Thursday, December 25th at 5:00 pm ET
Where: Chase Center in San Francisco, California
Channel: ESPN / ABC
Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish. They can change. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Warriors -340, Mavericks +270
Spread: Warriors -8.5 (+100), Mavericks +8.5 (-120)
Total: Over 228.5 (-105), Under 228.5 (-115)
Mavericks vs. Warriors Analysis
It’s hard to understand why the Warriors are favored to win this game by so much. The Mavericks are 8-5 against the spread over the last 13 games, and they’re also 6-4 straight-up over the last 10. Also, in that 10-game stretch, Dallas has played like a top-10 offensive team in the league, as the group has a raw offensive rating of 117.1. That’s significant when you consider the Mavericks are ninth in the NBA in raw defensive rating (112.9) this season.
This Dallas team is just dialed in right now and rookie Cooper Flagg is performing like an All-Star. Since the start of December, he’s averaging 24.1 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game. He’s also coming off his best game as a pro, finishing with 32 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists in a win over Denver on Tuesday. With Flagg looking like an absolute stud on offense, the Mavericks have an awesome duo with him and Anthony Davis.
All of a sudden, Dallas’ talent looks like it is on par with Golden State’s, even if Stephen Curry will be the most potent player on the floor. This is also a game that is expected to be relatively low in scoring. This one has the lowest total of any of the Christmas Day games, and it’s hard to cover big numbers in lower scoring games. That’s another reason to grab the points.
It’s also hard to ignore that Golden State is just 6-9 SU and 5-10 ATS over the last 10 games. I know the team is coming off back-to-back wins, but I’m not sold just yet. In fact, this team just had some serious on-court drama unfold in a win over Orlando, as Draymond Green and Steve Kerr got into a huge argument. Things were then a bit awkward after the game.
With the Warriors not playing their best basketball, and vibes being very low, it’s surprising they’re being viewed as though they’re on a different level than the Mavericks.
Mavericks vs. Warriors Player Props
Naji Marshall Over 13.5 Points (+100)
Marshall has scored at least 14 points in each of the last nine games. He has also hit the 14-point mark in 11 of the last 12. He’s just performing very well for this Dallas squad, and he should keep it up against Golden State. The Warriors are one of the worst teams in the NBA when it comes to defending the short mid-range area on the floor, which is where players hit runners and floaters. Well, Marshall is scoring 30% of his points in that area. He’s also a threat to score in transition, and he can knock down 3s if he’s left open.
Mavericks vs. Warriors Pick
I don’t think there’s a big difference between these teams right now, and I think an argument can be made that Dallas is better. Of course, it’s a little scary going up against Curry in a national TV game, as he’s due for a couple of 3-point flurries. But I think Flagg and Davis will do enough to keep this game tight, and I like Marshall to be one of the role players that steps up and helps them.
Bet: Mavericks +8.5 (-115 – 1.5 units) & Marshall Over 13.5 Points (+100)
