The 2023-2024 season was an absolute nightmare for the Grizzlies. The team lost the most games due to injury, suspension and personal reasons. One would expect some positive regression when it comes to health, but that is not the case, as Jaren Jackson Jr. has already suffered a hamstring strain and is expected to miss a good chunk of time. Still, Ja Morant is back and the team has revamped its coaching staff in hopes of reaching the postseason for the fourth time in five seasons.
Memphis will be implementing a new offense this season. One that prioritizes ball movement and cuts to the basket. The thought is that less will be on the shoulders of Morant. The Grizzlies’ point guard has ranked in the 80th percentile or higher in assist rate in three of his four full seasons, so the role of facilitator will be one he can fit in. The new system also preaches pace in halfcourt settings. With increased ball movement, players like Marcus Smart and Desmond Bane will have opportunities to assist frequently throughout games.
Regardless of the new system, if the Grizzlies are to be successful Morant has to be available. He has not played in more than 67 games in a season, and his career-high came in his rookie year. Whether it be injury or suspension, Morant needs to avoid it so he can give Memphis the best chance at winning.
Backcourt play for the Grizzlies figures to be a strength if Morant, Smart and Bane are all healthy this season. The frontcourt is not on solid ground though. Steven Adams is gone, and Jackson is in danger of missing time. Rookie Zach Edey figures to have a massive role for Memphis this season. Brandon Clarke remains on the team, but he played in just six games last season due to his recovery from a ruptured Achilles.
Shooting could be a concern for the Grizzlies’ offense. Smart and Morant have shot under 33% percent from deep for their careers. Jackson shot 39.4% his second season, but has hit just 32.6% of 3-point attempts since then. Luke Kennard is the team’s best shooter coming off the bench, but other than him and Bane there is not much knockdown shooting on this roster.
Defense has been a staple under Taylor Jenkins, and when fully healthy this team can be great on that end of the floor. Jackson is a former Defensive Player of the Year, as is Smart. But, Morant has been known to be targeted by opposing defenses, and Edey will be picked on by opponents as well. How much will this defense – which finished 13th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency – suffer with Morant and Edey being put in so many actions?
Grizzlies Win Total Prediction
Health is a concern with Memphis before the season begins, but if Jackson can come back early into the season this team has a very high ceiling. Morant is an excellent offensive piece who has averaged 26.8 points per game in his last two full seasons. Jenkins also showed he can coach, and he will raise the floor of this team with his scheme on both ends. The defense will carry this team on most nights, but spacing and shooting concerns could loom large.
Lean: Under 47.5 Wins (-105)
