It is an exciting time for Memphis. The front office decided to hit the reset button. Gone are Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ja Morant, the former franchise cornerstones. In their place is a roster that is now one of the youngest in the NBA.
The biggest name for the Grizzlies will be third-overall pick Cameron Boozer, but Zach Edey is entering his third season and Cedric Coward, his second. The Grizzlies still have some solid veterans on the roster as well. Jerami Grant and Isaiah Stewart will serve key roles for the team as some of the youngsters come along. It’s clear that head coach Tuomas Iisalo is fully in control with a fledgling roster in which he can fully implement his style.
BURNING QUESTIONS
How good is Boozer going to be for Memphis?
Boozer is the favorite to win Rookie of the Year at DraftKings (+300). The race is expected to be tight, as Darryn Peterson (+330), Caleb Wilson (+350), and AJ Dybantsa (+425) are not far off on the oddsboard. But Boozer is deserving of his status as favorite. In six appearances in the NBA Summer League, the former Blue Devil averaged 18.5 points, 8 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 2.1 steals and blocks on 45.2% shooting from the field. He showed versatility in his game, at times running the offense for Memphis in a point-forward type role. Not only does he have the skill set to make him a stat-sheet stuffer, but he will have the opportunity. Memphis is extremely young, and the goal is clearly development. Boozer will not only have the green light from a scoring perspective, but he will surely get opportunities to run the offense from the perimeter. The Grizzlies won’t win many games this season, but Boozer will be in line to win many awards, and Rookie of the Year could be one of them.
Will the youth carry the Grizzlies to a surprising season?
Memphis’ win total is just 28.5 at DraftKings, but it would not be stunning to see the Grizzlies show more spunk than what the market expects. Coward was phenomenal in his rookie season. He averaged 13.6 points and 5.9 rebounds on 47.1% shooting. He improved Memphis’ net rating by 12.1 points per 100 possessions on the floor, and he showed some versatility with a 15.4% assist rate, good for the 73rd percentile at his position. Edey, when healthy, was a massively impactful piece. In just 283 minutes last season, his efficiency differential of +27.8 ranked in the 100th percentile. Specifically on defense, Edey was a force. In his time on the floor, opponents saw their effective field goal percentage drop by 9.4%. These two are the other key building blocks for this youth movement in Memphis. If they continue on their statistical trajectory, we could be talking about a surprising push for a play-in berth from the young Grizzlies.
What will this team look like now that Iisalo has everything he needs?
Iisalo is in a great position of power. Morant caused friction with his rebuking of Iisalo’s structure for minutes and rotations. Now that he is gone, it is a massive vote of confidence for Iisalo and his system. Last season, the Grizzlies were a quick team. They posted the ninth-lowest rate of halfcourt possessions (78.0%) and were fifth in transition frequency (16.5%). Where Memphis lived was in transition off live rebounds. It posted the fourth-highest frequency rate of transition possessions off live rebounds (32.8%). While the Grizzlies were not overly effective in those possessions — they averaged 110.8 points per 100 plays off live rebounds, the fourth-lowest mark in the league – it was clear they wanted to play with pace. This team should continue to play in that fashion. Boozer is an extremely athletic big who can run the floor. Coward, Ty Jerome, Taylor Hendricks, and the rest of this roster fit that style perfectly. Memphis should be a fast-paced, exciting team that really steers into this youth on its roster under Iisalo.
WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: Over 28.5
